Numerator Webcast

1. ©2019 Numerator • Confidential
Friend, Foe or Frenemy
Unpacking Online Shopping
March 20, 2019

2. The most comprehensive view
2
PATH DATA PURCHASE DATA
Advertising SurveysPromotion Pricing Digital Shelf
PRE-PURCHASE PRE
or POST
PURCHASE
Numerator
Insights

3. 1960s
3
2000s
In-Home
Scanner
Online
Surveys
Purchase
Diary
Paper
Surveys
1980s
In-Home
Scanner
Phone
Surveys
Today
Mobile
Convergence

4. Numerator enables the frictionless collection
of Behavioral and Attitudinal panel metrics
from the single device
that’s always with us
Receipt Capture Mobile Surveys

5. 1 OF EVERY 360
American shopping trips is
captured by Numerator
Numerator’s InfoScout OmniPanel™ captured $1.62B of 612B Grocery and Mass Merchant purchases during 2017
U.S. Census Bureau, Advanced Monthly Retail Trade Survey, September 14, 2018

6. 6
EVERY TYPE OF
SHOPPER
America’s largest,
most representative
purchase panel
400,000
Shopping Trips per Day
400,000
Active Survey Panelists
100,000
Static Panelists
7
Weekly Trips per Panelist
We know people, not just panelists

7. EVERY TYPE OF SHOPPER
America’s largest, most representative purchase panel
OMNICHANNEL VISIBILITY
All retail channels: Bodega to Big Box to Ecommerce
BOTH BUY & WHY
Purchase triggered surveys link behaviors to attitudes
FAST INSIGHTS
On-demand access to purchase data, updated daily

8. E-commerce continues to grow through Click &
Collect, Subscription and Ship to Home services
8

9. How are these various fulfillment
options driving growth?

10. Online purchase frequency lags behind In-Store…
10
Non-perishable categories tend to have a higher online purchase frequency through Subscription, while
perishable categories tend to skew higher towards Click & Collect
13.3
30.2
12.4
9.8
21.5
8.3
5.0
14.5
2.8
4.0
2.4 2.9 3.3 2.3 1.5
3.1
5.2
2.9 2.9 3.3 3.5
2.5 2.6 2.8
7.2
0.0
4.3
5.6 5.9
3.1 3.3
0.0
Dog Food &
Treats
Cheese Coffee Nutrition and
Wholesome Bars
Water Bath Tissue Face Care Poultry
Purchase Frequency - Online Shoppers
By Fulfillment Type across a sampling of categories
In-Store Click & Collect Ship to Home Subscription
Numerator Insights – Online Category Shoppers 52 Weeks Ending 1/13/2019 n=38,355

11. …but Online spend per trip outpaces in-Store across fulfilment types
11
Shoppers spend more across the board on Click & Collect transactions vs In-Store. Ship to Home and
Subscription have roughly 2x the In-Store spend per trip for non-perishable categories.
$13.62
$5.90
$9.08
$6.42
$4.81
$9.73
$9.92
$9.46
$16.80
$7.67
$12.60
$7.77
$10.04
$11.46
$11.32
$12.62
$26.52
$8.66
$28.56
$18.83
$19.31
$21.75
$20.86
$9.51
$26.65
$0.00
$27.35
$17.78
$24.31
$24.59
$13.14
$0.00
Dog Food &
Treats
Cheese Coffee Nutrition and
Wholesome Bars
Water Bath Tissue Face Care Poultry
Spend per Trip - Online Shoppers
By Fulfillment Type across a sampling of categories
Brick & Mortar Stores Click & Collect Ship to Home Subscription
Numerator Insights – Online Category Shoppers 52 Weeks Ending 1/13/2019 n=38,355

12. Buy rate through Subscription has started to outpace In-Store rates
12
$182
$178
$113
$63
$103
$81
$49
$137
$47
$31
$30
$22
$33
$27
$17
$40
$138
$25
$84
$63
$68
$54
$54
$27
$192
$0
$118
$99
$142
$77
$43
$0
Dog Food &
Treats
Cheese Coffee Nutrition and
Wholesome Bars
Water Bath Tissue Face Care Poultry
Buy Rate - Online Shoppers
By Fulfillment Type across a sampling of categories
Brick & Mortar Stores Click & Collect Ship to Home Subscription
Numerator Insights – Online Category Shoppers 52 Weeks Ending 1/13/2019 n=38,355
Click & Collect buy rate for some perishable categories is higher than Ship to Home making it the new battle
ground for brands

13. Shoppers have a higher propensity to engage with Click & Collect vs.
Ship-to-Home for high frequency perishable categories…
13
89% 85%
36%
17% 13% 9% 6% 2%
11% 15%
64%
83% 87% 91% 94% 98%
Poultry Cheese Water Bath Tissue Nutrition and
Wholesome Bars
Coffee Dog Food &
Treats
Face Care
Share of Sales by Non-Subscription Fulfillment Type
Click & Collect vs Ship-to-Home (STH includes Delivery Service) Click & Collect Ship to Home
Numerator Insights – Online Category Shoppers 52 Weeks Ending 1/13/2019 n=38,355

14. …while purchases through Subscription tend to be for non-perishable
categories
14
45%
42% 41%
40%
25%
7%
0% 0%
Bath Tissue Water Dog Food &
Treats
Nutrition and
Wholesome Bars
Coffee Face Care Cheese Poultry
Share of Ship to Home Dollars coming from Subscription Purchases
Ship to Home – High Frequency Categories
Numerator Insights – Online Category Shoppers 52 Weeks Ending 1/13/2019 n=38,355

15. Brand loyalty is extremely high for Subscription based
purchases
Numerator Insights; Prior New Frontier Study; Subscribe & Save Shoppers: 6,964 15
More than
One Brand
per Category,
21.4%
One Brand
per Category,
78.6%
Number of Brands Subscribed-To
% of Households, Last 52 Weeks
37.6%
16.4%
8.8%
5.8%
4.4% 3.6%
1 2 3 4 5 6 …
Number of Categories Subscribed-To
% of Households, Last 52 Weeks

16. Brand loyalty online > brand loyalty offline
Imperative for brands to understand the dynamics
behind households starting to make online purchases

17. So, what happens when someone
starts shopping a category online for the first time?

18. Shoppers spend more on the category when they move online
Note: *Net Change calculated as Change in Test Group discounted with Change in Control Group. Data across 36 months of transactions from
January 2016 through January 2019 18
Overall category spend increases in the first year of a household starting to shop online indicating potential
expansion in stock-up and/or consumption
83%
73%
66%
55%
45%
28%
24%
9%
Face Care Nutrition &
Wholesome Bar
Water Dog Food &
Treats
Coffee Bath Tissue Poultry Cheese
Net Change* in Buy Rate
12 month post vs 12 month pre from first online category purchase
Products with a shorter shelf-life tend to see relatively
less growth

19. They spend more per trip but also purchase category more often
Note: *Net Change calculated as Change in Test Group discounted with Change in Control Group. Data across 36 months of transactions from
January 2016 through January 2019 19
Dog Food & Treats
Cheese
Coffee
Water
Bath Tissue
Face Care
Poultry
Nutrition & Wholesome
Bar
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
Net Change* in Purchase Frequency vs Spend Per Trip
12 month pre vs 12 month post from first online category purchase
Net % Change in Purchase Frequency
Net%ChangeinSpendPerTrip
Increases in spend per trip driven by increases
in spend per unit indicating larger packs

20. In most instances there is a marginal reduction in offline spending
Note: *Net Change calculated as Change in Test Group discounted with Change in Control Group. Data across 36 months of transactions from
January 2016 through January 2019 20
117%
111%
103%
96% 93% 92% 91%
79%
Water Nutrition &
Wholesome Bar
Face Care Poultry Coffee Dog Food &
Treats
Cheese Bath Tissue
Offline Spend Index
12 month post vs 12 month pre from first online category purchase
Categories with fewer brands see more of an
impact to offline sales when shoppers start to
move online

21. 618
There is a lot to gain for brands that have a differentiated online
strategy
21
Fiji Natural Artesian Water
Water
Nestle
Coffee
470
Gatorade
Nutrition and Wholesome Bars
344
Buy Rate Index
12 month pre vs 12 month post from first online category purchase

22. What should brands do?
22
• Look for co-development or co-marketing
strategies with key retailers looking to build
fulfillment methods – help them get shoppers
into their platforms and reap the benefits of
being first.
• Win that first ecommerce trip per household
to reap the benefit of initial category
incrementality and use the time to optimize
order systems, costs and packaging.
What should retailers do?
• Go big on categories that demonstrate
“accelerated stock up” for Ship to Home and go
focus on categories that don’t have this
phenomenon for Click & Collect methods.
• Test and Learn with manufacturers about ways
to bring shoppers to your fulfillment platform –
share the costs and leverage their marketing
muscle.

23. Numerator can help you win online

24. Improve online sales
24
• Monitor the impact of placement on
sales
• Increase product awareness
• Identify opportunities to encourage
brand switching
• Analyze ratings and reviews for
common themes
• Maximize your chance of conversion!
Numerator’s Digital Shelf solution can help you redefine merchandising in the click & collect space

25. ©2018 Numerator • Confidential
Numerator addresses a variety of challenges in online channel
management, helping remove barriers to ecommerce growth
Pricing
Intelligence
MAP Monitoring &
Enforcement
Online Brand
Compliance
Digital Shelf
Management
Competitive price monitoring
In-Cart/Out of Cart
30+ attributes per buy page
>5,500 global sites
Intra-day price visibility
First Mover
Price Compression
Authorized & Unauthorized
resellers
Violation reporting & enforcement
Data analyst validation
Case management
Evidentiary support of violations
Anti-counterfeiting
Gray market abatement
Intellectual Property Abuse
Data analyst validation
Takedown candidate reporting
Infringement enforcement
Reseller investigations
Covert test purchases
Shelf placement
Share of shelf reporting
Listing optimization
Stock & availability tracking
Ratings & reviews influence
Exception workflows & action
prioritization
25

26. Find out how Numerator can help you…
26
• Get ahead of holiday planning or other major events.
• How does March Madness impact day part shopping behavior?
• Are we prepared to handle Easter shopping trends?
• Understand the difference between delivery methods.
• Does click and collect have larger or smaller basket sizes?
• How can various fulfillment options drive growth?
• Understanding how different trip-goers can influence a trip.
• Does a trip with a child result in more impulse buys?
• How can you attract those types of shoppers?
• Analyze what types of products are bought together.
• Do these combinations create an opportunity for aisle layout or digital shelf optimization?
Win online with Numerator. Learn how today!
Say: hello@numerator.com