1. Scenario Planning at the City Scale
Doug Walker, Placeways
placeways
APA 2012 National Planning Conference
Session S547
Making Scenario Planning Work in Practice
MATERIALS COURTESY OF
PLACEWAYS LLC
APRIL 2012

2. ®
Promoting informed, collaborative decision-making since 2001.
CommunityViz is a registered trademark of Placeways LLC

3. ®
Promoting informed, collaborative decision-making since 2001.
placeways
2011 Esri Business Partner Award
CommunityViz is a registered trademark of Placeways LLC

4. ®
Analysis Wizards
ArcGIS Extension
Sketch Tools
Dynamic
Interactive Controls Charts
Multiple Scenarios
Intuitive Interface
Optional Fly-through 3D

5. Kelowna, BC Pasadena,
With thanks to City of With thanks to City of Pasadena
Kelowna and and

6. Choosing a Study Area
• Jurisdiction
• Area of Influence
• Commuter shed
• Regional destinations
• Social neighborhood
• Census or TAZ
boundaries

7. Scales of Analysis
Building
Parcel
Grid
Corridor
TAZ
City,
Region,
etc.

8. Scales of Analysis
Building
Parcel Aggregation
Grid Disaggregation
Corridor Nesting
TAZ Overlay Districts
City, Etc.
Region,
etc.

9. Capacity Assessment
Zoning and policy
Infrastructure and physical
constraints
Redevelopment potential
Market realities
Use scenarios

10. Suitability Assessment
Accessibility measures
Adverse impact areas
Hazards and constraints
Social equity goals
Policy goals
Expert or subjective
weighting

11. Designing Scenarios
Permutations of primary
actions
Relative emphasis of
desired outcomes
Expert or public
suggestions
Illustrative themes

12. Assigning Growth or Change
Painting place types
Specific policy areas (zones,
districts, transects…)
Mechanical allocation of
housing and jobs based on
capacity and demand
Manual allocation of jobs
and housing based on
expert knowledge

13. Painting Land Use or Place Types
11

14. Importing Land Use Styles
12

15. Example Scenarios: Land

16. Performance and Impact Indicators
Planners’ standard
repertoire of outcomes and
impacts
Local issues of concern
Comparisons to benchmark
and across scenarios
Notes:
• Data availability
• Model availability
• Accuracy vs. precision
• Computing
performance
• Uncertainty

22. Interactive User Interface Reports
3D Visuals
Custom Formula
Decision Tools
Editor
Analysis Scenario
Dynamic Analysis Engine
GDB Mgt.
ArcGIS
Reference Data

23. GP Model
Excel Interactive User Interface Reports
External Input/Output
Tables 3D Visuals
Custom Formula
Databases
Decision Tools
Editor
Scripts
Analysis Scenario
Dynamic Analysis Engine
3D Tools GDB Mgt.
Web Services
(Formula) ArcGIS
Reference Data
Model Data

24. City-Scale Indicators

25. City-Scale Indicators

26. City-Scale Indicators

27. City-Scale Indicators

28. City-Scale Indicators

29. City-Scale Indicators

30. City-Scale Indicators

31. Scenario Comparisons

32. Model Outputs
20

33. Visual Communication
Maps plus…
Landmarks and
streetscapes
Transects and samples
Citywide massing and
highlights
Presentation packages and
kits
Interactive websites and
media

34. Closing Thoughts on City Scale

35. Closing Thoughts on City Scale
• (Most) cities are not homogeneous islands – choose study
area carefully

36. Closing Thoughts on City Scale
• (Most) cities are not homogeneous islands – choose study
area carefully

37. Closing Thoughts on City Scale
• (Most) cities are not homogeneous islands – choose study
area carefully
• Careful capacity assessment is particularly important at
this scale

38. Closing Thoughts on City Scale
• (Most) cities are not homogeneous islands – choose study
area carefully
• Careful capacity assessment is particularly important at
this scale

39. Closing Thoughts on City Scale
• (Most) cities are not homogeneous islands – choose study
area carefully
• Careful capacity assessment is particularly important at
this scale
• Compared to region and site scales, form, design and
precision matter an intermediate amount

40. Closing Thoughts on City Scale
• (Most) cities are not homogeneous islands – choose study
area carefully
• Careful capacity assessment is particularly important at
this scale
• Compared to region and site scales, form, design and
precision matter an intermediate amount

41. Closing Thoughts on City Scale
• (Most) cities are not homogeneous islands – choose study
area carefully
• Careful capacity assessment is particularly important at
this scale
• Compared to region and site scales, form, design and
precision matter an intermediate amount
• Cities are typically mature and complex; flexible models
are needed

42. Doug Walker, Placeways
placeways
doug @ placeways.com