Learn more about Diversity Explosion: http://www.brookings.edu/research/reports2/2014/11/diversity-explosion __________ At its optimistic best, America has embraced its identity as the world’s melting pot. Today it is on the cusp of becoming a country with no racial majority, and new minorities are poised to exert a profound impact on U.S. society, economy, and politics. Through a compelling narrative and eye-catching charts and maps, eminent demographer William H. Frey interprets and expounds on the dramatic growth of minority populations in the United States. He finds that without these expanding groups, America could face a bleak future: this new generation of young minorities, who are having children at a faster rate than whites, is infusing our aging labor force with vitality and innovation. Diversity Explosion shares the good news about diversity in the coming decades, and the more globalized, multiracial country that U.S. is becoming.

1. DIVERSITY
EXPLOSION
HOW NEW RACIAL DEMOGRAPHICS!
ARE REMAKING AMERICA
#DiversityExplosion

2. U.S. white and minority populations, 1970-2050
Millions
225
200
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
175
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
150
125
Minorities
Minorities
Whites
Minorities
Source: U.S. censuses and Census Bureau projections, various years.
100
censuses and Census Bureau projections, various years.
75
50
25
0
Whites
Source: analysis of US Census data 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

3. 21st Century Racial Population Trends
- Rapid growth of “new minorities”
- Diminished growth and rapid aging of whites
- Black advances and migration reversals
- Shift to “no racial majority” nation

4. Demographic Dynamics
Diversity by Migration
“from the melting pot, out”
Age
4%
4%
Diversity by Generation
“from the bottom, up”
Under 5
5–17
18–35
35–49
50–64
65–74
85+
51%
55%
58%
64%
73%
79%
85%
22%
20%
16%
10%
7%
5%
25%
4%
5%
5%
14% 4%
14%
13%
12%
11%
9%
7%
1

5. Age
Under 5
5–17
18–35
35–49
50–64
65–74
85+
51%
51%
55%
55%
58%
58%
64%
64%
73%
73%
79%
79%
85%
85%
25%
22%
22%
20%
20%
16%
16%
10%
10%
7%
7%
5%
5%
25%
11%
9%
4%
4%
5%
4%
5%
14%
14%
14% 4%
14%
13%
13%
12%
12%
11%
9%
7%
7%
Cultural Generation Gap
Population Composition, by Age and Race, 2010
Source: analysis of US Census data
Whites Blacks Asians Hispanics 2+ races Other races

6. Youth and Old-Age Dependency Ratios, 2010-40
2015
Source: analysis of US Census data
FIGURE 2-5
Youth and Old-Age Dependency Ratios, 2010–40
Old-Age Dependency Ratios, 2010–40
POPULATION WHITES HISPANICS
Old-Age Dependency Ratios, 2010–40
POPULATION WHITES HISPANICS
Ratio TOTAL POPULATION WHITES HISPANICS
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2030
2035
2015
2020
2025
2040
2010
2020
2025
2030
Old-age dependency ratio
(Population age 65 and above
as percent of population age 18–64).
2020
2030
2040
Youth dependency ratio
(Population under age 18 as
percent of population age 18–64).
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2025
2020
2035
2030
2040
Old-age dependency ratio
(Population age 65 and above
as percent of population age 18–64).
dependency ratio
2010
Population under age 18 as
percent of population age 18–64).
2015
2025
2035
2010
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Old-age dependency ratio
(Population age 65 and above
dependency ratio
Population under age 18 as
Old-age Dependency Ratio Youth Dependency Ratio
as percent of population age 18–64).
percent of population age 18–64).

7. Demographic Dynamics
Age
4%
4%
Diversity by Generation
“from the bottom, up”
Diversity by Migration
“from the melting pot, out”
Under 5
5–17
18–35
35–49
50–64
65–74
85+
51%
55%
58%
64%
73%
79%
85%
22%
20%
16%
10%
7%
5%
25%
4%
5%
5%
14% 4%
14%
13%
12%
11%
9%
7%
1

8. Melting Pot, New Sun Belt, and Heartland America
Melting Pot
New Sun Belt
Heartland
San Francisco
Los Angeles
Houston
Miami
Chicago
New York City
Source: analysis of US Census data

9. Hispanic Concentration Areas and New Hispanics Destinations
Hispanic concentration/
modest growth (33 metros)
Hispanic concentration/
fast growth (44 metros)
New Hispanic destinations
(145 metros)
Charlotte
Omaha
Atlanta
Source: analysis of US Census data

10. Counties with Minority Overrepresentation
Blacks
Hispanics
Asians
Other
2+ races
None
Source: analysis of US Census data

11. Metropolitan Chicago and Atlanta Black Populations, 1970-2010
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Chicago
Atlanta
millions
Source: analysis of US Census data

12. Trends Towards Integration
- Melting Pot Cities and Suburbs

13. Percent of Residents Residing in Suburbs, top 100 metros
1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010
1990
2000
2010
1990
2000
2010
1990
2000
2010
1990
2000
2010
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
74
78
54
57
62
47
54
59
51
44
37
77
Source: analysis of US Census data
White Asian Hispanic Black

14. Trends Towards Integration
- Melting Pot Cities and Suburbs
- Reduced Neighborhood Segregation

15. FIGURE 9-1
Black-Segregation: Average Levels for Metropolitan Areas,
1930–2010
Segregation levela
Black-White Average Segregation Level, 1930-2010
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Source: Cutler, Claeser and Vigdor (1991) Appendix A1 for 1930–1980, U.S. Census, 1990–2010.

16. Trends Towards Integration
- Melting Pot Cities and Suburbs
- Reduced Neighborhood Segregation
- Multiracial Marriage and Identity

17. Multiracial Marriages as a Percent of all Marriages
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2008-2010
NEW MARRIAGES
4.6%
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
ALL MARRIAGES
0.4% 0.7%
3.2%
6.7%
8.4%
15.2%

18. Trends Towards Integration
- Melting Pot Cities and Suburbs
- Reduced Neighborhood Segregation
- Multiracial Marriage and Identity
- Extending the Political Battleground

19. Minorities as Share of Eligible Voters, 2012
Under 5%
5%-14%
15%-24%
25%-34%
34% and over

20. States Won by Democratic and Republican Candidates
2004 Election
Democrat win
Democrat win, due to
minority support
Republican win

21. States Won by Democratic and Republican Candidates
2008 Election
Democrat win
Democrat win, due to
minority support
Republican win

22. States Won by Democratic and Republican Candidates
2012 Election
Democrat win
Democrat win, due to
minority support
Republican win

23. DIVERSITY
EXPLOSION
William Frey
Senior Fellow
wfrey@brookings.edu
#DiversityExplosion