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Lean Publishing

    Peter Armstrong
Is the physical
 book dead?
"It's happening. It not happening in
10 years. It's happening in 5 years."
 -Nicholas Negroponte (at Techonomy conference, 2010-08-06)
"Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos predicts that
 e-book sales will surpass paperback
sales within the next 12 months, and
combined hardcover and paperback
sales soon after that. This despite the
   fact that the 600,000 titles in the
 Kindle bookstore represents only a
   fraction of Amazon's inventory."
 - http://www.forbes.com/2010/07/30/amazon-kindle-economy-environment-opinions-
                           columnists-reihan-salam.html
That’s NOT the
most important
  question!
Are publishers dead
    if/when the
physical book dies?
That’s NOT the
most important
question either!
Are books dead?
NO!
(yay!)
Books
 will outlast
TV networks.
So, what is the
most important
  question?
How should authors
publish their books?
NOT Stieg’s way.
Traditional Publishers?

   Self-Publishing?
What are the
  problems for
    AUTHORS
 of traditionally-
published books?
Horrible
  Royalty
 Percentage
(especially on e-books)
Delay
Irrelevance,
 Failure and
  Obscurity
Is there a solution?
NO.

  There’s no universal
solution--some books are
        just lousy.
Is there an
improved approach
 for some authors
    and books?
Lean Publishing
Lean
Publishing


             1. Manifesto
             2. Theory
             3. Practice
1. Manifesto
Lean Publishing
 Elevator Pitch
Imagine a world
in which authors
   can actually
  make money
 writing books...
Imagine a world in which
authors can have a meaningful
conversation with their readers
    about their books. Now
  imagine if this was possible
before these books were even
           finished...
Isn't Lean Publishing
Just Self-Publishing?
Self-Publishing:
A way to publish
 finished books.

 Lean Publishing:
     A way to
 write and publish
in-progress books.
Isn't Lean Publishing
      the same as the
 Beta Books, Rough Cuts
or Early Access programs
          of certain
  traditional publishers
   of computer books?
A Book is a Startup
1. There are market
risks, technical risks
   and a very low
    probability of
       success.
2. Both writing a
book and creating a
 startup are highly
 creative processes
undertaken by one
  or a few people
  working closely
      together.
3. Historically it has
taken about a year,
   often spent in
isolation or "stealth
 mode", to develop
and release the first
      version.
4. Historically,
startups have been
funded by VCs and
authors have been
     funded by
publishers, both of
which are hit-driven
    businesses.
Consequence: It's
Very Easy To Create
Something Nobody
      Wants
Solution: Use Lean
Startup Principles
2. Theory
The Lean Startup and
      Customer
    Development
Steve Blank:
Customer Development
Eric Ries:
Customer Development +
    Agile Methodology =
        The Lean Startup
Open Source
  Software:
Release Early,
Release Often
 and Listen to
    your
  Customers
Lessons Learned
from Lean Startups
Publish Early
 (Fail Fast)
Publish Often and
  Listen to Your
     Readers
Build a Community
    of Readers
Lessons Learned
   from Blogs
Good Blogs are
 Beta Books
Successful Blogs
Build Communities
3. Practice
The Lean Publishing
   How-To Guide
(Non-Fiction Version)
Step 1:
   Blog, Tumble
 and Tweet to Find
Your Voice and Build
   an Audience
Step 2:
   Write the
Minimum Viable
     Book
Step 3:
Start Marketing and
      Selling the
     In-Progress
Minimum Viable Book
Step 4:
Finish the Book with
 Constant Feedback
 from your Readers
Step 5:
 Market and Sell the
  Completed Book,
   Possibly with a
Traditional Publisher
Tangent:
  Why does Lean
Publishing make so
  much sense for
technology books?
The Technology
    Adoption and
     Information
Distribution Lifecycle
Lean Publishing Presentation
Lean Publishing Presentation
Lean Publishing Presentation
Lean Publishing Presentation
Lean Publishing Presentation
Lean Publishing Presentation
Lean Publishing Is
   Not Just For
 Technical Books
Non-Fiction
Fiction (?)
Case Studies
37signals:
 Signal vs.
Noise, Getting
  Real and
  Rework
Sell the Blog:
 Startup Lessons
     Learned
        and
The Venture Hacks
       Bible
Flexible Rails




   (The origin of Lean Publishing,
as well as of Ruboss and Leanpub.)
What Does Lean
Publising Mean for
   Publishers?
Authors will have a
  better BATNA.
     (Sorry.)
Publishers add most
   value at the
  end of a book.
(indexing, copy editing, technical editing,
  marketing, printing [while that matters],
        distribution channels, etc.)
Only the most
  successful books
need all this; the rest
    can stay self-
  published more
     profitably.
This will especially
    be true if/when
    there are only 3
   channels (Kindle,
iBooks and PDF) that
         matter
 -- all of which don’t
 require publishers.
Publishers will take
less risk and authors
will get a better deal.
    This is just like the emerging new
  dynamic between VCs and founders
    of consumer internet companies.

                                         *
*These predictions assume that neither
Amazon nor Apple will end up with a total
   victory. If either of them do, it’s all over.
As long as they are fiercely competing, the
     situation is very good for authors (and
     Leanpub) and tolerable for publishers.
Thanks!



Peter Armstrong

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Lean Publishing Presentation