This is the presentation on brand strategy in turbulent socio-economic conditions that I gave at the 2011 Branding Conference in South Africa. A key part of the presentation was the use of scenario planning. I also spoke about Sagacite's work on rapid adaptive strategies. I have added a couple of notes to several of the more obscure slides to help viewers understand what I talking about.

1. scenarios as the foundation of brand
strategy in today’s volatile socio-
economic and business environment
Patrick Collings
Sagacite
Branding Conference
8 - 9 June 2011
by mark visosky

2. introduction to a new
way of thinking about
brand strategy
photo by bart

3. Business & branding
Socio-economic & business environment
Management toolbox
Scenarios
Applying scenarios

4. business & branding

5. brands have climbed
the internal ladder
of importance to
the point that...
photo by @rild

6. brand strategy
equals
business strategy

7. ...and if they were bic pens
Note: Spoke about how deciding where you want to position a brand determines the
entire organizational structure and operation. Example of expensive and cheap pens.

8. “...many enlightened organizations are moving
branding entirely away from communications
and toward connecting strategy, culture, and a
wider stakeholder involvement.”
Nicholas Ind & Majken Schultz
Strategy + Business

9. socio-economic &
business environment
photo by tenisca

10. the world is facing increased
turbulence over the next
decade and beyond
Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World
released by the National Intelligence Council

11. caused by leadership change in emerging
markets, major policy shifts by governments,
increased armed conflict, interlinked economies,
budget cuts by local and national government
by antitezo

13. VUCA
volatility uncertainity complexity ambiguity

14. New Normality
Feature Normal Economy
Economy
Economic Cycles Predictable Absent
Upturns / Booms Definable ( Avg. 7 Years) Unpredictable / Erratic
Downturns / Recessions Definable ( Avg.10 Months) Unpredictable / Erratic
Potential Impact of Issues Low High
Overall Investment Profile Expansive, Broad Cautious, Focused
Market Risk Tolerance Acceptance Avoidance
Customer Attitudes Confident Insecure
Customer Preferences Steady, Evolving Apprehensive, Flight to Safety
taken from Chaotics

15. relentless innovation
Note: This slide and the following ones looked at how
brands are contributing to and experiencing volatility.

16. demand for results
Note: The example used here was how Google scrapped
its non-performing virtual world after a couple of months.

17. history is no guarantee
of tomorrow

18. and the realization that
past glories are just that

19. in endless conversations

20. management toolbox
photo by Robert S Donovan

21. the management toolbox is limited
photo by Robert S Donovan

22. with management
tools designed in a
very different era
photo by farmalidanzil

23. often static in nature
photo by DWRose

24. photo by fotomele
and cookie cutter
in design

25. many belong to the rationalist school of
management thought which works on the
underlying assumption that there is one
best future solution

26. is needed
photo by SomeDriftwood

27. starting with a new mindset
by maessive

28. one that accepts that we can’t predict the
future and should concentrate on being
flexible enough to successfully engage it, in
whatever form it may take

29. “Giving up the illusion that you can predict
the future is a very liberating moment. All
you can do is to give yourself the capacity
to respond to the only certainty in life -
which is uncertainty. The creation of that
capability is the purpose of strategy”
Lord John Browne, former CEO BP

30. “Nearly all of the Best Global Brands have
embraced the idea of constant change,
evolution and innovation, and are able to
continually meet the changing requirements
of this customers.”
Interbrand Best Global Brand 2010

31. scenarios
photo by drew herron

32. the aim of scenarios
is to reveal multiple,
equally realistic and
foreseeable futures
photo by drew herron

33. scenarios allow us to see
beyond the headlights
photo by victor cavazzoni

34. uncertainty
forecast scenarios hope
now distance into the future

35. and avoid panic when the
future deals us a bad hand
image by luna di rimmel

36. photo by Templar1307
Roots in WW II military planning

37. Note: Spoke about the early days of scenario planning
and the work of Rand strategist Herman Kahn.

38. took its name from the hollywood trash bin

39. scenario planning’s
most famous hour
Note: Example of how Shell used scenario
planning to deal with the 1973 oil crises.

40. scenario planning in
top 25 management tools

41. approaches
Royal Dutch/Shell & Global Business Network
The French School
The Futures Group
Wilson and Ralston
Lindgren and Bandhold
Reference scenarios
Decision Strategies International
Procedural scenarios
Industry scenarios
Soft creative scenarios

42. crafting the scenario
image by akbar simonse

43. not at crisis time
scenarios should never be developed
at the moment of decision. they
require time to be absorbed and
embraced

44. assemble theinvolvement,
gain executive support and
team
embrace diversity of opinion within and
outside the organization

45. learning to learn
learning must be a continuous
process and involve learning to re-
perceive or reinterpret a situation

46. start with a question
scenarios start by isolating the relevant
decision that needs to be made

47. gather the information
be flexible as you gather broadly and narrowly,
focus on the question but not at the detriment
of the unexpected and look for disconfirming
evidence

48. identify the drivers
identify the driving forces that influence
the outcome of events: some will be
obvious and others less so.

49. composing the plots
build the scenarios around four questions:
what are the driving forces, what is uncertain,
what is inevitable, how about this or that
scenario

50. the simple 4 choices
keep the scenario exercise to four simple
and realistic plots that lead to different
choices for the original decision

51. keep talking & watching
developing and maintaining scenarios is an
ongoing process of tracking developments,
assessment, extrapolation and questioning

52. and then the process often implodes
image by jim sher

53. applying scenarios
photo by Simon Bleasdale

54. applicability trend & opportunity identification
brand positioning
brand portfolios
brand offerings
organizational capacity

55. rapid adaptive strategy

56. near future budgeting
in practice disposable factories
customizable complexity
dynamic pricing
shadow portfolios

57. portfolio
Brand

58. just like you have a shadow
cabinet theoretically ready to
assume power, shadow brand
portfolios should be ready to
be implement at short notice

59. luxury goods may have smaller volume
packaging to cater for the aspirational market
in economic downturns

60. automobile makers developing hybrid cars

61. publishers training designers to design e-books

62. “In the next few years, successful companies
will distinguish themselves by managing
uncertainity better than do their competitors.
The very best will create uncertainity for their
competitors to struggle with - and there will
be hell to pay by those who fall behind.”
George Stalk
Senior Partner and Managing Director
The Boston Consulting Group

63. Note: Spoke about how computer and mobile companies not only have to worry
about socio-economic issues but also what game-changing offerings Apple releases.

64. Ordnung braucht nur
der dumme ein genie
beherrscht das chaos

65. Order is needed only
by fools, the genius
controls the chaos