Big Design: How Systems of Systems Are Changing What We're Designing, and What We Need to Manufacture

BIG
DESIGN:
HOW SYSTEMS OF SYSTEMS
ARE CHANGING WHAT WE’RE
DESIGNING, AND WHAT WE
NEED TO MANUFACTURE
PATRICK KALAHER
VP OF TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY
frog

As products, buildings, and infrastructure  
get smarter, more connected, and data-rich,
design must expand from a singular focus  
on discrete things and structures towards  
the design of adaptive, modular, intelligent,
and interdependent systems. This talk will
showcase what frog sees as the emerging
conceptual architecture of Big Design, and
give examples of how this is changing what,
and how, we make things.
TODAY
2

“We need to
shrink our
PDLC from
7 years to
3 years.”
— EXECUTIVE AT SCIENTIFIC
MICROSCOPE MANUFACTURING
COMPANY
3

WE SHRUNK
THE PDLC, BUT
THE CUSTOMER
ISN’T BUYING
MICROSCOPES
ANYMORE.
OH MY
4

OH MY
SCIENTISTS
WANT TO ANALYZE
IMAGES OF CELLS.
5

OH MY
IMAGE ACQUISITION
& MANIPULATION
STORAGE COLLABORATION SOFTWARE TO
AID IN ANALYSIS
& WORKFLOW
6

OH MY
“YOU’RE ACTUALLY IN
THE IMAGING SYSTEMS
BUSINESS NOW.”
ALONG WITH DOZENS
OF OTHER COMPANIES.
7

SO, WHAT’S IT
GOING TO TAKE
TO BE GOOD
AT THIS?

“What do you
mean there’s
no such thing
as Zero Defect
software?”
— EXECUTIVE AT SCIENTIFIC
MICROSCOPE MANUFACTURING
COMPANY
9

As products, buildings, and infrastructure get
smarter, more connected and data-rich, design must
expand from a singular focus on discrete things and
structures towards the design of adaptive, modular,
intelligent, and interdependent context—where
things, services, people, and places are always already
connected in direct and oblique ways.
Big Design uses design and engineering to  
shape connected, intelligent systems that bridge  
the human, enterprise, and urban—or even planetary
— scale.
SHIFT OF VALUE TO
THE SYSTEM, AWAY
FROM THE DEVICE
INFRASTRUCTURE
ENTERPRISE
PERSONALHUMAN SCALE
DISCRETE LINKED, LAYERED
WEARABLE
MOBILE
DEVICE
CAR
BUILDING
COMPLEX
DISTRICT
CITY
REGION
PLANETURBAN SCALE
10

MUCH MORE  
ABOUT THIS LATER
14

TOTAL RUBBISH?
MEET BRUNO. FIXES PROBLEMS YOU DIDN’T
KNOW YOU HAD. CREATES NEW ONES.
15

SMARTBELLY,  
BIGBELLY SOLAR
SMART RUBBISH?
17

IT’S A SERIES
OF PROCESSES
AND SYSTEMS
18
Waste
Collection
Services
Composting
Recycling
Other
Processing
Activities
Production
SortingSorting SortingFinal
Disposal
Waste
Recovery

BIGBELLY 
“BigBelly uses solar power  
for 100% of its energy needs  
for trash compacting. The unit
takes up as much space as the
"footprint" of an ordinary
receptacle—but its capacity  
is five times greater. Increased
capacity reduces collection trips
and can cut fuel use and
greenhouse gas emissions  
by 80%.”
www.bigbelly.com 19
Waste
Collection
Services
Composting
Recycling
Other
Processing
Activities
Production
Disposal
Waste
Recovery
IT’S GOT TO BE
MUCH BETTER
IN ORDER TO BE
WORTH DOING

BIGBELLY 
by 80%.”
COST
EFFICIENCY
www.bigbelly.com 19
Waste
Collection
Services
Composting
Recycling
Other
Processing
Activities
Production
Disposal
Waste
Recovery
IT’S GOT TO BE
MUCH BETTER
IN ORDER TO BE
WORTH DOING

BIGBELLY 
by 80%.”
COST
MANUFACTURING  
COMPLEXITY
DESIGN 
COMPLEXITY
DESIGN 
COMPLEXITY
OPERATIONAL 
COMPLEXITY
COST
EFFICIENCY
www.bigbelly.com 19
Waste
Collection
Services
Composting
Recycling
Other
Processing
Activities
Production
Disposal
Waste
Recovery
IT’S GOT TO BE
MUCH BETTER
IN ORDER TO BE
WORTH DOING

OH MY
“YOU’RE ACTUALLY
IN THE BIG DESIGN
BUSINESS NOW.”
ALONG WITH EVERYONE
ELSE IN MANUFACTURING.
20

22
DESIGN
PRINCIPLES
ARCHITECTURE SECURITY &
ANTI-FRAGILITY
EXPERIENCE
STRATEGY
22

DESIGN
PRINCIPLES
ANTI-FRAGILITY
EXPERIENCE
STRATEGY
23

1.
24
DESIGN PRINCIPLES
INVENT AS LITTLE
AS POSSIBLE
2.
DESIGN FOR CHEAP
MODULARITY
3.
HUMANS + MACHINES >
HUMANS OR MACHINES

“Von Neumann had one piece of advice for us:  
not to originate anything.” This helped put the IAS
project in the lead. “One of the reasons our group
was successful, and got a big jump on others, was
that we set up certain limited objectives, namely
that we would not produce any new elementary
components.” adds Bigelow.
“We would try and use the ones which were
available for standard communications purposes.
We chose vacuum tubes which were in mass
production, and very common types, so that
we could hope to get reliable components,
and not have to go into component
research.”
DESIGN PRINCIPLES:
INVENT AS LITTLE
AS POSSIBLE
25

DESIGN PRINCIPLES:
INVENT AS LITTLE
AS POSSIBLE
26Source: Nascent Objects

DESIGN PRINCIPLES:
DESIGN FOR CHEAP
MODULARITY
Source: Nascent Objects 27
COST
MANUFACTURING  
COMPLEXITY
DESIGN 
COMPLEXITY

DESIGN PRINCIPLES:
HUMANS + MACHINES > HUMANS OR MACHINES
28
MORAVEC’S PARADOX 
“The hard problems are easy,  
the easy problems are hard.” 
—Stephen Pinker
POLANYI’S PARADOX 
“The skill of a driver cannot be
replaced by a thorough schooling
in Motorcar Theory.”
www.blog.kinaxis.com/2014/10/humans-inloop-part-3-kinaxis-cognizant-series
Physical
Self Monitoring and Regulation
‘Robot Farming’
Human Involvement
Cognitive/Physical Workload
Remote Monitoring
and Controlling
Non-Creative Mental
Work-Managing Robots/Machines
High Percentage of Physical
Labor
Cognitive
3
6
n Future
Tomorrow
Today
80s
60s<1
1

29www.blog.kinaxis.com/2014/10/humans-inloop-part-3-kinaxis-cognizant-series
DESIGN PRINCIPLES:
MORAVEC’S PARADOX 
“The hard problems are easy,  
the easy problems are hard.” 
—Stephen Pinker
POLANYI’S PARADOX 
“The skill of a driver cannot be
replaced by a thorough schooling
in Motorcar Theory.”
Physical
‘Robot Farming’
Human Involvement
Remote Monitoring
and Controlling
Non-Creative Mental
Labor
Cognitive
3
6
n Future
Tomorrow
Today
80s
60s<1
1
Physical
‘Robot Farming’
Human Involvement
Remote Monitoring
and Controlling
Non-Creative Mental
Labor
Cognitive
3
6
n Future
Tomorrow
Today
80s
60s<1
1

30

INVENT AS LITTLE
AS POSSIBLE
DESIGN  
FOR CHEAP
MODULARITY
HUMANS +
MACHINES >
HUMANS OR
MACHINES

DESIGN
PRINCIPLES
ANTI-FRAGILITY
EXPERIENCE
STRATEGY
32

ARCHITECTURE
1.
THERE ARE THREE
SCALES OF  
BIG DESIGN
2.
DESIGN SMALL
PIECES, LOOSELY
JOINED
3.
RESPECT THE IOT
WELL CURVE
33

BIG DESIGN AT
THREE SCALES
UNIT SCALE
Constrained systems  
for specialized needs;
constrained by compute,
network, or power
capabilities.
• System on Chip
• Wireless Sensors
• Energy Harvesting
LOCAL SCALE
Edge compute systems  
for real time needs; general
purpose computing
platforms.
• Operating Systems
• Autonomous Vehicles
• Smartphones
• Network Appliances
PLANETARY SCALE
Redundant, parallel compute
systems ideally suited for
parallel processing and
distributed storage needs;  
Big Data.
• Hadoop
• Data Centers
• Virtualization
34

Source: The Opte Project
SMALL PIECES, SOMETIMES
SCALE-FREE
“What the Web has done to documents it is doing
to just about every institution it touches. The Web
isn't primarily about replacing atoms with bits so
that we can, for example, shop online or make our
supply chains more efficient…Rather, the Web is
changing our understanding of what puts things
together in the first place. We live in a world that
works well if the pieces are stable and have
predictable effects on one another. We think of
complex institutions and organizations as being
like well-oiled machines that work reliably and
almost serenely so long as their subordinate pieces
perform their designated tasks. Then we go on the
Web, and the pieces are so loosely joined that
frequently the links don't work; all too often we
get the message “404!”
But, that's ok because the Web gets its value not
from the smoothness of its overall operation but
from its abundance of small nuggets that point to
more small nuggets.”
35
“The Internet
consists of Small
Pieces, Loosely
Joined.”
— DAVID WEINBERGER
35

SMALL PIECES, JOINED
LIKE THE INTERNET
36Source: frog

eg:
Fitbit
Nike +
Smartthings
Twine
eg:
Smartphones
iPads
Nest
Device Complexity and Cost
RelativeNumberofUnits(Log)
COMPLEXITY & COST WELL CURVE
37Source: frog
Dead
Zone

eg:
Fitbit
Nike +
Smartthings
Twine
eg:
Smartphones
iPads
Nest
Device Complexity and Cost
RelativeNumberofUnits(Log)
37Source: frog
Device Proﬁtability
Dead
Zone

— RICHARD TYSON
“Big Design  
is about a shift
of value to the
system, from
the device.”
38
($5)

39
Source: DLB Associates
($7B)

INVENT AS LITTLE
AS POSSIBLE
DESIGN  
FOR CHEAP
MODULARITY
HUMANS +
MACHINES >
HUMANS OR
MACHINES
THERE ARE  
THREE SCALES  
OF BIG DESIGN
DESIGN
SMALL PIECES,
LOOSELY JOINED
RESPECT
THE IOT
WELL CURVE

DESIGN
PRINCIPLES
ANTI-FRAGILITY
EXPERIENCE
STRATEGY
41

42
SECURITY & ANTI-FRAGILITY
1.
DESIGN FOR
BAD DESIGN
2.
DESIGN FOR FAILURE
3.
DESIGN FOR FAT
TAILS & WEIRDNESS

OUR SELF-DRIVING FUTURE
http://www.bsﬁlms.com.ar/ 43

YOU’RE ONLY AS GOOD
AS YOUR WORST
DESIGN DECISION
www.arstechnica.com 44
REMOTELINK DATA 
An example of decrypted
RemoteLink data captured  
by OwnStar, from Kamkar's
DefCon presentation.

NO MATTER WHAT,
IT WILL BE HACKED
45
There have been an increasing
number of safety critical hacks
of production vehicles. This
one resulted in more than 1
Million Jeeps being recalled.
“Hackers
remotely kill
a Jeep on the
highway.”
— ANDY GREENBERG
Source: Wired

INDUSTRY STANDARD
ATTACK SURFACES
46Source: Sean Gallagher / www.arstechnica.com

47
47
“An escalator
can never
break: it can
only become
stairs.”
— MITCH HEDBERG

BEWARE FAT TAILS
1. Disproportionate Role
2. Non-Computability
3. Psychological Biases
4. Things keep getting weirder
48Source: Wikipedia / Cauchy Distribution

FAT TAILS HAPPEN EVERY DAY
49Source: Internet

THE WORLD IS
GETTING WEIRDER
50
DESPITE BILLIONS SPENT ON
SAFETY AND SECURITY, THERE
REALLY IS NO WAY TO STOP
A PILOT FROM INTENTIONALLY
CRASHING A PLANE.
50Source: stevecoast.com

THERE ARE  
THREE SCALES  
OF BIG DESIGN
INVENT AS LITTLE
AS POSSIBLE
DESIGN  
FOR CHEAP
MODULARITY
DESIGN
SMALL PIECES,
LOOSELY JOINED
HUMANS +
MACHINES >
HUMANS OR
MACHINES
RESPECT
THE IOT
WELL CURVE

THERE ARE  
THREE SCALES  
OF BIG DESIGN
INVENT AS LITTLE
AS POSSIBLE
DESIGN  
FOR CHEAP
MODULARITY
DESIGN
SMALL PIECES,
LOOSELY JOINED
DESIGN FOR
BAD DESIGN
DESIGN  
FOR FAILURE
DESIGN FOR
FAT TAILS &
WEIRDNESS
HUMANS +
MACHINES >
HUMANS OR
MACHINES
RESPECT
THE IOT
WELL CURVE

DESIGN
PRINCIPLES
ANTI-FRAGILITY
EXPERIENCE
STRATEGY
52

53
EXPERIENCE STRATEGY
1.
DON’T JUST
MAKE THINGS
2.
CREATE ANCHOR
POINTS
3.
ORGANIZE FOR
EXPERIENCE

DON’T JUST
MAKE THINGS
54
Previous
Products
Market/Customer
says...
SortingWe think...
SortingNo Existing
Market
SortingCan we?
Should we?
SortingWe should
make a thing
SortingThe Market
Indicates

CREATE
EXPERIENCES
55
People have
been doing...
Experiments
to understand
behavior...
These things
exist
Learning
Adapting
Networks
feel...
SortingWe could
be...

CREATE
EXPERIENCES
56
BUILDING  
NEW PRODUCTS  
& SERVICES
What needs and desires  
are we trying to address?
UNDERSTANDING  
THE IMPACT OF NEW
TECHNOLOGIES 
What do we need to understand
and when? How do we react?
New products  
and services create  
new behaviors
A better understanding  
of needs and desires  
can validate decisions

ANCHOR POINTS: THINGS
YOU CAN RELY ON
57Source: GE

58
— OPERATIONS MANAGER,  
MAJOR CITY TRANSIT
“Before CNG
in a Box, it took
all night to fuel
my busses. And
sometimes it
didn’t work.”

CNG in a Box
59
ANCHOR POINTS:  
THINGS YOU CAN  
RELY ON

CNG in a Box
Schedules
59
ANCHOR POINTS:  
THINGS YOU CAN  
RELY ON

CNG in a BoxInterfaces
Schedules
59
ANCHOR POINTS:  
THINGS YOU CAN  
RELY ON

CNG in a BoxInterfaces
Services
Schedules
59
ANCHOR POINTS:  
THINGS YOU CAN  
RELY ON

CNG in a BoxInterfaces Distribution
Services
Schedules
59
ANCHOR POINTS:  
THINGS YOU CAN  
RELY ON

HEADLINE
LOREM IPSUM
DOLOR SIT AMET,
CONSECTETUR
ADIPISICING ELIT,
SED DO EIUSMOD
TEMPOR
60
ANCHOR POINTS FOR
CONNECTED EXPERIENCES
60

IOT ExperienceInterfaces Distribution
Services
Schedules
61
ANCHOR POINTS:  
THINGS YOU CAN  
RELY ON

ORGANIZED FOR
EXPERIENCE?
Which company is better organized  
to create the best experiences?  
Who can introduce new services  
and products, or pivot quickly  
to change existing ones?
62Source: Internet Meme

ORGANIZED FOR
EXPERIENCE?
“Schiller’s Marketing function includes
product marketing by product line, but these
are not business ownership roles…there is  
no “head of devices” or “head of iPhone”…
Product is a “horizontal” responsibility  
for which every function is partially
responsible.”
“When seen in  
this light, the ﬁrst
observation is that
there is no ‘product
business’ ownership.”
—HORACE DEDIU, ASYMCO
CEO 
HR  Marketing
- Schiller 
Design
- Ive 
Technologies
- Mansﬁeld 
Internet SW 
-Cue
Operations
HW
Engineering
-Riccio
Legal
NA Sales
Int. Sales
Communications
Retail
Finance
-Oppenheimer
SW
Engineering
-Federighi
SUSTAIN
DISRUPT
63Source: asymco.com

DESIGN FOR
BAD DESIGN
THERE ARE  
THREE SCALES  
OF BIG DESIGN
INVENT AS LITTLE
AS POSSIBLE
DESIGN  
FOR FAILURE
DESIGN  
FOR CHEAP
MODULARITY
DESIGN
SMALL PIECES,
LOOSELY JOINED
DESIGN FOR
FAT TAILS &
WEIRDNESS
HUMANS +
MACHINES >
HUMANS OR
MACHINES
RESPECT
THE IOT
WELL CURVE

DESIGN FOR
BAD DESIGN
THERE ARE  
THREE SCALES  
OF BIG DESIGN
INVENT AS LITTLE
AS POSSIBLE
DESIGN  
FOR FAILURE
DESIGN  
FOR CHEAP
MODULARITY
DESIGN
SMALL PIECES,
LOOSELY JOINED
DESIGN FOR
FAT TAILS &
WEIRDNESS
HUMANS +
MACHINES >
HUMANS OR
MACHINES
RESPECT
THE IOT
WELL CURVE
DON’T JUST  
MAKE THINGS
CREATE ANCHOR
POINTS
ORGANIZE FOR
EXPERIENCE

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