This is a short challenge based on Newcomb's problem. Try it!

1. Welcome to Newcomb’s vending machine.
You are visitor number: 10 001,
Use your arrow keys to advance >
Full-screen viewing recommended

2. This machine will predict your choice.
Correct: 9,900*
Incorrect: 100*
The machine’s track-record so far:
This is an educational exercise. Assume the machine somehow knows
enough about each person to make a prediction that is 99% accurate.
*

3. Predicting …

4. The machine has made its prediction.
Here are two opaque boxes:
You may choose …
Option 1: Receive the contents of box A only,
without opening box B.
Option 2: Receive the contents of both boxes.
A B

5. If the machine predicted you would choose …
Option 1: There is $1 million in box A
and $1 million in box B.
Option 2: Both boxes are empty.
A B
A B

6. Let’s review …
If the machine predicted you would choose A only,
there is already $1 million waiting in each box.
If the machine predicted you would choose both
boxes, both boxes are empty.
Track record so far: 9,900 to 100.
Choose now:
Option 1
Receive the contents of box A only.
Option 2
Receive the contents of both boxes.
Proceed to your analysis ->

7. Results
If you chose …
Option 1: You are an evidence-based decision
maker (at least in this case).
Option 2: You are a causal decision maker.
To learn more, go to www.lesswrong.com
This version of Newcomb’s problem was created by David Siegel
www.businessagilityworkshop.com