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Hyper! Hyper!! How to deal with trends, fads and constant change

The digital industry is subject to permanent change, and its thought leaders constantly keep predicting even more major shifts. Time and again, new processes, roles, methods, usage patterns, platforms, work fields, tools etc. are declared the „next hot big thing“. Some of these eventually do affect our work as UX Designers in a major way, others turn out to be just temporary fads or premature concepts. How do we deal with all the trends and hypes without freaking out or getting lost chasing shiny objects? (Talk held at UX Camp Europe / june 2017, Berlin)

Hyper! Hyper!! How to deal with trends, fads and constant change

  1. 1. How to deal with trends, fads and constant change in UX Design Rupert Platz | @r000pert | #uxce17 | Berlin Hyper! Hyper!!
  2. 2. 2000: Discomfort.
  3. 3. „ForgetHTML.WAPisthefuture!!“
  4. 4. 2007: Excitement.
  5. 5. „Everybodycantageverything!!“
  6. 6. Hypesandchange.
  7. 7. Hypes: There‘salwaysabigfussaboutsomenew bigthing.
  8. 8. Today: Artificial Intelligence! Chatbots! Anticipatory Design!! Flat 2.0! Social VR! Machine Learning! Conversational Commerce! Augmented Reality! Design Sprints! Everybody is a designer!
  9. 9. Yesterday: Microinteractions! Beacons! Lean Startup! Kanban! Google Glass! Dual Track Agile! Jobs-to-be-done! Flat vs. Skeumorphic! IoT & Wearables! Sketch & InVision! Designers should code!
  10. 10. The day before yesterday: Parallax Effect! QR Codes! HTML5! SmartTV! Scrum! Design Thinking! Storytelling! NUI vs. GUI! Quantified Self! Gamification! Native vs. Web!
  11. 11. The day before the day before yesterday: Social Media! Web.TV! Podcasts! Wikis! Ecosystems! Social Tagging! Gamification! Perpetual Beta! Second Life! Mental Models! RSS Aggregation!
  12. 12. Realchange: Thingsdokeepshiftingallthetime.
  13. 13. Project Waterfall Build & Test Org Silos ? Product Agile Rapid Prototyping Digital Teams Process and organisation
  14. 14. Information Architect Concept developer Digital Art Director User Researcher Project Manager UX/UI Designer UX Strategist Product Manager Product Owner Data Scientist ? Roles and job titles
  15. 15. Websites Software Apps ? Multi-touchpoint journeys Design systems Design objects
  16. 16. Breadcrumb Nav Teaser Carousels Mega-Flyouts Hamburger Icon Skeumorphic Design ? NUI Microinteractions Cards / Material Bold typography Flat / Flat 2.0 UI Patterns
  17. 17. Personas Card Sorting Design Studio Journey Mapping Usability Lab Tests ? Biz Model Canvas Remote User Testing Value Prop Design Lean UX Experiments Jobs-to-be-done Design Sprints UX Methods
  18. 18. Omnigraffle Axure Fireworks † Photoshop Confluence / Jira Adobe Xd? UXPin? Origami? Pixate? Framer? Zeplin? Macaw? Principle? Atomic? Smaply? Mural? Asana? Sketch InVision Slack Trello Tools
  19. 19. Agency E-Commerce Startup Corporate Digital Unit Innovation Lab Employers ?
  20. 20. Thechallenge: Hotodealwithhypesandchange.
  21. 21. Whatwillreallybecomeimportant? What‘sjustbeinghypedup? WhatshouldIbepreparedfor? WhatcanIignore? WhenisitOKtojustwaitandsee?
  22. 22. HowlongwillIdotheworkIdotoday? HowwillIworktomorrow? WheredoIwanttogo?
  23. 23. (Andbytheway: WhatarealltheAdobeFlashdesigners doingtoday?)
  24. 24. Reactingtohypes.
  25. 25. Psycho test: What‘s hype reaction type are you? ExcitedUnsettled Sceptic
  26. 26. „Cool! I want to do that too!“ „I always want to be at the forefront of things.“ Excited:
  27. 27. Risk Lose focus Waste time / money Latest solution instead of best solution Dismiss established concepts too early Opportunity Healthy openness! Experiment & learn Get first mover advantage (Have fun!)
  28. 28. Blindexcitementleadsto HypeSolutionism.
  29. 29. (Rupert‘sLaw: GivesomeUXDesignersaproblemto ideatefreelyupon,andthey‘llalways comeupwithsometrendyhype solution.)
  30. 30. In love with shiny objects: „Then her Apple Watch will tell her she has a new task.“ „Some Artificial Intelligence will tell him which product he needs.“ „She then aks her voice assistant to change her status .“ „When he enters the store, he‘s greeted via a beacon.“
  31. 31. Unsettled „Do we need to do this too?“ „Are we lagging behind?“
  32. 32. Risk Fear of missing out Reactive thinking Blind actionism (Feel bad) Opportunity Healthy vigilance! Threats of change are real Always question your practice
  33. 33. PerceivedBackwardness: Uneasinessabouthypesandchange maymakeyoufeelmoreoutdatedthan youactuallyare.
  34. 34. Z.B: Agile, Sketch: Vieles ist heute noch gar nicht so Mainstream wie man denkt. „My name is Carl, and I‘m still doing website wireframes with Axure.“
  35. 35. Uneasinessabouthypesmayleadto aimlessactionism.
  36. 36. „We need the Next Big Thing. Quick, please.“
  37. 37. Sceptic „Nobody will need this.“ „It will disappear eventually.“ „We‘re doing this right.“
  38. 38. Risk Miss chances Get stuck in routine Become outdated (Boring!) Opportunity Healthy calmness! Realism Critical thinking
  39. 39. Rigidscepticismleads to misjudgements.
  40. 40. Being wrong about hypes is easy. 2006: AJAX? „Irrelevant programming tricks.“ 2007: The iPhone? „Haha, it doesn‘t even have a keyboard!“ 2007: Twitter? „Who needs this 140 characters crap??“
  41. 41. Ingredientsofahealthyattitudetowards change:
  42. 42. OpenVigilant Critical+ +
  43. 43. Enthusiasmforthenew...
  44. 44. ...combinedwiththeseven-stage HypeBullshitDetector.
  45. 45. 1.Knowhypefromactualchange.
  46. 46. Hype vs. Change = Talking vs. Doing. Attention in industry media Adaption in practice
  47. 47. The Gartner Hype Cycle Peak of Inflated Expectations Valley of Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Jackie Fenn: The Microsoft System Software Hype Cycle Strikes Again, 1995 Plateau of Productivity Time Attention
  48. 48. Example: The Hamburger Menu debate
  49. 49. The Adaption curve: Things dont change overnight Everett M. Rogers: Diffusion of innovations (1962) 10% early adoptors 40% early majority 40% late majority 10% laggards Time Adaption
  50. 50. „The future‘s already here, it‘s just not evenly distributed“. You are here. Responsive Web Chatbots?? InVision Prototyping? Design Sprints? Time Adaption
  51. 51. Some things aren‘t even as mainstream as we think.
  52. 52. Hypes make excited proclamations ... Attention „X is the new thing that will change the game!“
  53. 53. ... that may eventually lead to mainstream adaption. Adaption X slowly becomes a thing that actually changes the game. Attention „X is the new thing that changes the game!“
  54. 54. (Do we still need to discuss Responsive Design?)
  55. 55. Examples Mobile Web Social Media Responsive Design
  56. 56. Other hypes just die away. „Nope.“ „X is the new thing that changes the game!“
  57. 57. Examples Google Wave Second Life WebTV Portals
  58. 58. Mostly, hyped topics are here to stay but dont keep their promises. Zeit X becomes just another thing. Makes sense and works, but not for everyone and everything. „X is the new thing that changes the game!“
  59. 59. Zeit Examples Blogs Gamification QR Codes
  60. 60. Some hypes are like volcanoes: They quake from time to time – and might just erupt the next time. Hype 1 Hype 2 Hype 3
  61. 61. Example: Mobile Web 2000 WAP / imode 2005 Symbian 2008 iPhone/Flatrate
  62. 62. Social Virtual Reality? 1999 Cycosmos 2005 Second Life 2017 Facebook Spaces ...?
  63. 63. Augmented Reality? 2010 AR Apps 2013 Google Glass 2016/17 Pokemon Go, World Lenses, Hololens ...?
  64. 64. Virtual (voice) assistants? 2010 Website avatars 2011 Siri 2016 Chatbots? Voice Assistants? Since 80ies: Phone dialogue systems(IVR)
  65. 65. 2.Understandtherhetoricofhypes.
  66. 66. TheeternalSilverBulletpromise: „TheNextBigThingwillblowaway everythingelse.Itwillbethesolesolutionfor allproblemswehavetoday.“
  67. 67. HypeClickbait: Dramaticbinarystatements Lifeordeath. Winnerorloser. Neworobsolete.
  68. 68. If you‘re not mobile friendly, you‘re dead. „You‘re in danger.“
  69. 69. „What you know and do is dead.“
  70. 70. „What you know and do is broken / over.“
  71. 71. „What you know is dead, the New Thing is the boss now.“
  72. 72. „The New Thing is the new old thing.“
  73. 73. „All of you should do something more.“
  74. 74. 3.Knowmotivationsbehindhype proclamation.
  75. 75. Whofuelsthehypefire–andwhy?
  76. 76. Consulting companies: Push the hype to sell your knowledge advance
  77. 77. (Aspiring) thought leaders / influencers: Join the hype to be seen and grow a reputation.
  78. 78. Originators and subject domain experts: Sell books, conference talks, workshops, webinars, tools, ...
  79. 79. Big brands and their agencies: Do hot new experimental stuff and look innovative.
  80. 80. Stock corporations: News of digital innovations drives shareholder value
  81. 81. 4.Clarifyterms.
  82. 82. Buzzwords: Doeseverybodyunderstandandmeanthe samewhenusingthem? Neverbeashamedtoask!
  83. 83. ... Self-learning system? ... Minimalistic? ... Material Design? ... Design System? ... Microinteractions? ... Chatbot? What exactly do you mean by ...? ... Prototype? ... Lean? ... MVP? ... Anticipatory Design? ... Rapid User Testing? ... Innovation?
  84. 84. ... AI / Artificial Intelligence? ... Machine Learning? ... Deep Learning? ... Neuronal Networks? ... Anticipatory Design? What‘s the difference between those to you? ... Chatbots? ... Conversational Interfaces? ... Virtual Assistants? ... Voice Assistants? ... Agentive Systems?
  85. 85. 4.Askfornumbers.
  86. 86. How many Amazon Echos has Amazon sold in Germany yet? How many people actually download and use smartwatch apps? Who uses SIRI or „OK Google“ commands on their smartphone regularily? How many active users does have by now? How many employers actually demand UX designers who can code? Cool stuff, but what I‘d be interested to know:
  87. 87. What do the numbers behind the numbers look like? „They already have a million users!“ „Usage numbers have doubled!“ „[Big Brand X] also does it!“ ... in China and South Korea. ... from 1% to 2%. ... with their 20 million $ innovation budget. „[X] is becoming increasingly popular“ ... I don‘t have numbers. Just a personal feeling.
  88. 88. 5.Don‘tforgetreality.
  89. 89. „Watchyoungmothers,notgeeks. Theydon‘thavetimeforanythingthat isn‘tuseful.“ Clay Shirky (?)
  90. 90. Example: Conversational Banking on WeChat (China)
  91. 91. Reality Check for German banking customers today: Does it solve a known problem in a new, better way? Do our customers have the problem? Does it fit their culture and media usage patterns? Yes: It‘s faster and more convenient than opening a banking app, logging in, etc. Yes: Checking balance and transferring money are top tasks for them Are they as keen as us to try & adapt new things? How about German data protection Angst? Do they chat? Is there sth. like WeChat in Germay? OK, Whatsapp is no 1 here – do they have a dev platform for bots?
  92. 92. OK,sothiswontbeakillersolutionfor Germanbankingcustomersfornow. Buttomorrow...?
  93. 93. 6.Knowyourmotivationand expectation.
  94. 94. Why try new routes? I want to create actual business & user value here and now. I want to try new things and become ready for the future. I want to be perceived as innovative by others. Caution: Will the new hot thing be the best solution for the biggest impact? That‘s a great side effect (and a buy-in strategy) – but shouldn‘t be an end in itself. Experimentation leads to failure, learning and higher flexibility! Your investment will bear fruit some day.
  95. 95. 7.Rememberwhatalwayscountsinthe end.
  96. 96. Despitehypes,thingsareconstantly changing. Isthereanythingconstanttosticktoas designer?
  97. 97. Wedesignforpeopleandtheirneeds. Peopledon‘tchangeasfastastechnology anddesigntrends.
  98. 98. Weuseaprocessthathelpsusunderstand aproblembeforesolvingit.
  100. 100. Weourselvesarealsoactorsofchange.By design,weinfluencetheexperienceand valueofnewthings.
  101. 101. Changeisnotachallengetoourjob,but oneofitsconstantcharacteristics. Resilienceisacorecompetence.
  102. 102. resilience: „The capacity of a person system to maintain its core purpose in the face of changed circumstances.“
  103. 103. „Resilience is an essential skill in an age of unforeseeable disruption and volatility. It means to stay on your path while expanding the range of alternatives that you can embrace if you need to.“
  104. 104. Danke! @r000pert
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The digital industry is subject to permanent change, and its thought leaders constantly keep predicting even more major shifts. Time and again, new processes, roles, methods, usage patterns, platforms, work fields, tools etc. are declared the „next hot big thing“. Some of these eventually do affect our work as UX Designers in a major way, others turn out to be just temporary fads or premature concepts. How do we deal with all the trends and hypes without freaking out or getting lost chasing shiny objects? (Talk held at UX Camp Europe / june 2017, Berlin)


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