1. DEMOCRACY AND WINDS OF
CHANGE IN HONG KONG
THEORIES OF GOVERNMENT AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION:
SA5101 MAPPM (TZ3 TEAM 4)
• LUJAN ANAYA, Raul “Alex” (52915639)
• CHEUNG, Wai Wah “Andy” (52154846)
• CHEN, Yi “Chenyi” (52870513)
• TAM, Ho Yan “Carol” (50711094)

2. Nowadays, States across the world
are struggling to BUILD and
CONSOLIDATE democracy (UNDP);
Develop institutions and processes
RESPONSIVE to needs of ordinary
citizens (including the poor) to
PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT;
Provide ACCESS TO JUSTICE and
public administration;
Deliver BASIC SERVICES to the
needy and vulnerable.
[http://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/ourwork/democraticgovernance/ov
erview.html]
About Democratic Governance

3. FOUR basic elements (Stanford):
1. Choosing and replacing
government through FREE and
FAIR ELECTIONS;
2. ACTIVE PARTICIPATION of people
(citizens), in politics and civic life;
3. PROTECTION of HUMAN RIGHTS
and basic freedoms;
4. RULE OF LAW in which law, its
institutions and procedures serve
equally to citizens.
[http://www.stanford.edu/~ldiamond/iraq/WhaIsDemocracy012004.htm]
But… What is “Democracy”?

4. SEMI-DEMOCRATIC political
structure;
Designed to work by authoritarian
and executive-led guidelines
(starting with BASIC LAW);
System continously clashed with
the DEMOCRATIC AMBITIONS of
its PEOPLE;
Politically-ACTIVE population
concerned about protecting its
FREEDOMS and interests.
Hong Kong, SAR: Democratic?

5. Despite coming from a non-democratic regime (colony,
DIRECT CONTROL from the UK), Hong Kong developed
democratic ambitions BEFORE HANDOVER time and upon
“the end of (British) empire” in 1997;
Backgrounds: 1966-67 RIOTS, socio-economic GROWTH in
1970-80’s decades, education and awareness
(ENLIGHTEMENT), liberal heritage and WAY OF LIVING from
Britain, “TRIPOD of consents” (Scott, 2010);
“LESSER OF TWO EVILS”: fear of oppression, migration to
and from what was to be integral part of PR of China.
[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vs6Md8a5wcQ&feature=g-vrec]
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lesser_of_two_evils_principle]
Democratic Ambitions?

6. Meanwhile in WAN CHAI… JUNE 30, 1997.
OH NO!! What are we gonna do now?…
Everyone pack your bags! we’re LEAVING now…
Terrible FEAR! The LESS EXPECTED moment!

7. Things weren’t as terrible as many had especulated…
As SAR of PRC (Art. 31, Chinese Constitution), Hong Kong
benefits from “One Country, TWO SYSTEMS” regime;
“High degree of AUTONOMY” (Art. 2, Basic Law, BL), its
(capitalist-liberal) WAY OF LIFE remains unchanged, and
upholds RULE OF LAW inherited from British system;
Disadvantages: LEGITIMACY question, INTERVENTION of
PRC in policy matters, power of final INTERPRETATION
resting in National People’s Congress, NO IMMUNITY,
LOOPHOLES , blurry limits of COMPETENCY spheres…
Was there such need to worry?

8. DISADVANTAGES of Hong Kong as SAR went extensive to
its political structure (executive and legislative powers);
NO universal suffrage:
Chief Executive (CE) “APPOINTED” by internal organs;
LIMITED SUFFRAGE allowed for election of Legislative
Council (LEGCO) members (geographical constituencies);
Will universal suffrage (as essential element of full-
democracy) EVER BE IMPLEMENTED in the SAR?
PROMISES of suffrage continously postponed: Election of
CE (2017) and ALL LEGCO members (2020)…
Matters of Polity in HKSAR

10. 1980’s: Fight for the “irrational” (DIRECT elections);
1995: UN HR Commission determined LEGCO elections DID
NOT COMPLY with International Convention on Civil and
Political Rights (Arts. 25, 26);
Functional constituencies should be abolished , FULL
IMPLEMENTATION of universal suffrage for ALL LEGCO
members;
2003: “JULY MARCH”;
Fight for 2007-08 DUAL suffrage:
CE and all LEGCO members…
The Struggle for Universal Suffrage

11. January, 2004: USA and UK expressed support for political
reform in the HKSAR: Day Procession;
March, 2004: “Report No. 1” issued by HK Constitutional
Development Task Force;
HK Constitutional Development Task Force issued a “Report
No. 1”;
April, 2004: NPC Standing Committee (SCNPC) agreed with
CE and the LEGCO to produce decision of governing:
“in 2007 (the CE) will not be elected by universal suffrage, the
Legislative Council election in 2008, half elected by universal
suffrage, and the other half by functional constituencies… universal
suffrage has been delayed…”
The Struggle for Universal Suffrage

12. March, 2007: FIRST TIME in history, pan-democrats to
participate in CE election, Alan Leong defeated by 123 votes
to 649 by Donald Tsang, he said will continue to fight;
December, 2007: SCNPC issued draft, pointing out that CE
shall be elected by universal suffrage in 2017, and all
members of LEGCO by 2020;
Scheme of dual suffrage in 2012 rejected, but can be
MODIFIED according to Basic Law, LEGCO functional
constituencies, returned by geographical constituencies
through direct elections proportions remained unchanged,
half and half, all seats in LEGCO by universal suffrage in CE
election.
The Struggle for Universal Suffrage

13. On dissatisfaction of pan-democratic camp, People’s
Congress REJECTED universal suffrage in 2007;
January, 2008: 7,000 people attended march organized by
Civil Human Rights Front…
SCNPC Answer: Sugar-coated Poison
• “Too early to implement universal
suffrage… Legislative Council’s election to
implement universal suffrage as early as the
Chief Executive’s election will make the
Basic Law and the whole system of
impact…”
• “Universal suffrage in 2017… consistent
with the actual situation in Hong Kong and
the principle of gradual development…”
QIAO XIAOYANG - 喬曉陽
SCNPC Vice Secretary-General;
Committee for Basic Law of Hong Kong

14. August, 2009: Survey by Asia-Pacific Studies of CUHK,
reported 51.3% of respondents agreed on decision of SCNPC
about universal suffrage in the SAR;
DEMOCRATS have been advocating on striving to
implement dual suffrage by 2012. ONLY 38.1% of respondents
AGREED;
2007: SCNPC resolution, not to implement universal suffrage
for 2012, rather POSTPONE election by universal suffrage of
CE by 2017, and election of all LEGCO members by 2020;
60% of respondents expressed their ”CONFORMITY”;
More consensus on the need of implementing dual suffrage:
A SOCIAL DEMAND which CAN’T BE IGNORED…
Survey by

15. Universal Suffrage, Chinese Version?
• “Personal understanding and views…”
• “Universal suffrage”: Universal and equal
suffrage…”
• “Countries according to their actual situation
of electoral system, to achieve universal and
equal suffrage… The reality of today's
international community…”
• “Hong Kong community must be able to
understand and support the central position…
Safeguard the provisions of the Basic Law, to
discuss the issue of constitutional development
in Hong Kong, in the Basic Law and the
Standing Committee of the National People's
Congress "provisions track, and promote
democracy in Hong Kong…”
WE WON’T GIVE IN SO
EASILY!

16. Proposals: Pan-Democrats vs. NPC

17. 1. Representative NOMINATING
committee;
2. Nomination in accordance with
“democratic PROCEDURES”;
3. Hong Kong universal suffrage, to
PRODUCE CE candidates;
4. NEWSPAPER appointed by the
central government;
Result: CE candidates produced
UNDER CONTROL of Central
Government;
Result is bound to be regardless of
Hongkongers’ vote, election would
be BEIJING FAVORED…
“Free” Elections? The View of China

18. PEOPLE’S
CHOICE…
OR
BEIJING’S?…

19. HEAD of (government in the) HONG KONG SAR, representative of the Region (Art. 43, Basic
Law). He is ACCOUNTABLE to the Central Government and to the HKSAR (!)…
The Chief Executive

20. Historical concept: COLONIAL
INHERITANCE;
Political apparatus designed to
promote social STABILITY
“CHIEF EXECUTIVE” vs. “GOVERNOR”:
People’s choice or appointment by
political bodies?;
Universal suffrage TIMETABLE: Since
the handover, Hong Kong, as SAR of
the PR of China, MAY (possibility)
implement universal suffrage for
election of CE in 2017 and ALL LEGCO
members by 2020…
Why, How to Choose the Leader?

21. “MOCK POLL”:
A. CY Leung: 17.8%;
B. Henry Tang: 16.3%;
C. Albert Ho: 11.4%;
54.6% of VOTES cast were BLANK
(questionable reliability);
“THE WORST SYSTEM, including all
the others” (The Economist);
SMALL-CIRCLE election (closed
appointment).
ART. 45 of the Basic Law…
Criticism of “Election” in 2012

22. May be selected by election or local consultations, and
FINALLY appointed by Central People’s Government;
According to the principle of “GRADUAL and ORDERLY
progress”;
ULTIMATE AIM: Universal suffrage upon nomination by
broadly representative committee;
The HKSAR CAN DECIDE its arrangements for electing CE
and the LEGCO after 2007. UNDER CONDITIONS:
1. Consent by 2/ 3 of members of the LEGCO;
2. Consent of the Chief Executive;
3. Approval of the SCNPC.
Election of the Chief Executive

23. Context ISSUES to consider:
1. EXECUTIVE-LED government (authoritarian political design);
2. ELITE STRUCTURES (vested interests): “Business-State”;
3. HAND-TIED Legislature: Not a Parliamentary System;
4. (Political) DIFFERENCES between Pan-Democrats;
5. INTERVENTION by the Central People’s Government;
6. FEAR OF UNREST by government leaders in Mainland;
7. UNCERTAINTY: Reform or Conservatism?...
TWO possible OUTCOMES:
1. Change in APPEARANCE: One person, one vote;
2. Change in ESSENCE: Limit candidate nomination.
A Bleak Future, Issues and Outcomes

24. FACTS AND EXPECTATIONS…

25. FIFTH LEGCO since the establishment of the HKSAR;
NEW STRUCTURE formed by constitutional reform passed in
2010;
GEOGRAPHICAL Constituencies (GC):
Expanded from size of 60 seats, to 70 seats in total: 35 seats
are geographical constituencies (GC) elected by people’s
suffrage;
FUNCTIONAL Constituencies (FC):
30 seats unchanged, NEW 5 SEATS from a new constituency
called DISTRICT COUNCIL (Second) for which candidates
may be nominated by councillors, are elected by registered
voters which don’t belong to traditional FC’s.
Result of the Election

27. PRO-DEMOCRACY camp:
1. Won 56.6% SHARE of popular vote;
2. 18/ 35 SEATS of GC’s;
3. Won 3/ 5 seats in the NEW DISTRICT COUNCIL (second) FC;
4. Votes for radical faction (People Power, PP, and Social-
Democrats, SD) topped 264,000. Civic Party (CP) around
255,000 and Democratic Party 247,000;
PRO-BEIJING camp:
1. Won 42.3% SHARE of popular vote;
2. Democratic Alliance for Betterment (DAB) and Progress Party
remained the largest, winning 13 SEATS IN TOTAL;
3. ALL LISTS in GC were ELECTED, candidates split in several lists.
Outcome Overview

28. LACK OF COORDINATION: Failure to split votes among lists;
DP was TOO AMBITIOUS in fielding 3 separate tickets in
New Territories (NT) GC: Only Emily Lau was reelected;
Civic Party VOWED TO GRAB two seats in HK-Island and
New Territories West GC: Audrey Eu and Tanya Chan placed
second, received over 70,000 votes, but not reelected;
CP lawyers’ clique OVER-CONCERNED in constitutional, than
livelihood issues to be major force;
INFIGHTING: PP vs. DP and Association for Democracy and
People’s Livelihood supporting 2010 reforms;
Pro-Democracy UNABLE TO EXPLOIT their share of vote.
Pan-Democrats Election Setbacks

29. Under the SCNPC decision issued in December 2007, the
SOONEST for which CE and all LEGCO members can be
elected by universal suffrage are YEARS 2017-20;
CY Leung will have the opportunity to propose and adopt
electoral reforms which FULFILL the “ULTIMATE AIM” of
the election of HKSAR leaders by universal suffrage;
According to the decision issued by the SCNPC, amending
the election process involves a SIX-STEP PROCESS:
1. CE shall “prepare a REPORT” TO SCNPC about the need of
amending election process in the HKSAR;
2. SCNPC WILL DICTAMINATE on issue for the need for
amendment, but not on speficific changes;
Election Perspectives for 2017-20

30. 3. The government of the HKSAR shall introduce an
INITIATIVE for bill of amendments before the LEGCO;
4. The LEGCO must pass the bill of amendments by quorum
of at least 2/ 3 MAJORITY VOTE ;
5. The CE MUST CONSENT the bill which is to be passed by
the LEGCO;
6. The bill shall be REPORTED to the SCNPC for its “FORMAL
APPROVAL” when amending the election process CE, and
“for the record” when amending the election process of
LEGCO members.
In accordance to Section III, Annex II of Basic Law…
Perspectives, the Six Steps

31. “…With regard to the method for
forming the Legislative Council of the
Hong Kong Special Administrative
Region and its procedures for voting on
bills and motions after 2007, if there is a
need to amend the provisions of this
Annex, such amendments must be
made with the endorsement of a two-
thirds majority of all the members of
the Council and the consent of the
Chief Executive, and they shall be
reported to the Standing Committee of
the National People’s Congress for the
record…”
Section III, Annex II of the Basic Law

32. If Pan-Democrats (27 seats) remain UNIFIED, the coalition
may block any proposal to amend the election process;
However, COORDINATION among pro-democracy groups
becomes more difficult, considering the RISE of new
RADICAL factions, which seeks to pursue changes in policy
by supporting strong protest acts to their grievances;
Unlikely that Pan-Democrats can ATTRACT SUPPORT of the
20 members of the pro-Beijing camp to approve reforms
acceptable to pan-democrats;
If CE and LEGCO fail to NEGOTIATE a compromise
acceptable to most members of BOTH CAMPS, the
opportunity to achieve universal suffrage by 2017-20, may be
lost…
Political Projections in LEGCO

33. Democracy in Hong Kong will DEPEND on the political
orientation of the INCOMING Chinese LEADERSHIP;
HONG KONG as ground for POLITICAL EXPERIMENT, and
test viability of the “One Country Two System” regime;
Chinese leaders may continue to intervene in polity matters
of the SAR to ensure STABILITY and economic prosperity;
Central Government may decide to WEIGH TO any election
reform discussion, as it did in 2007;
Indirectly, the Central Government would make moves to
SAFEGUARD ITS INTERESTS (ie. preservation of selected
FC’s, control of elegibility criteria for each FC);

34. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!
CITY UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG
MAPPM 2012