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frompast
Accelerating
2021+
AcceleratedEvolution
HumanMachineSymbiosis
EnergyFlip
TranscendingPolarization
VectorsofTravel
WorkReconfigured
EfficiencytoResilience
BeingWell
PandemicPulse
These9themeswilldefine
thecomingyears:
Thecrucibleof2020has
transformedus,notintoa
“post-pandemic” future,
butonewhichhasacceler-
ated and amplified many
existing trends of the
pre-2020world,flippingus
iintoaneweraforhumanity
whichwewillforeverseeas
forgedbytheintensefireof
2020.
2020haspivoted
usintoanewera
- Gallup,October2020
42%ofAmericanssaytheywillNOTgetaCOVID-19vaccine.
- GlobalInfluenzaStrategy2019-2030,WorldHealthOrganisaon
“Althoughitisimpossibletopredictwhenthenextpandemicmight
occur,itsoccurrenceisconsideredinevitable.”
TheannouncementofmultipleCOVID-19vaccineshasgivenhopeto
populationsbesiegedbythevirus,butcoronavirusishighlyunlikelytobe
fullyvanquishedfortheforeseeablefuture,withdelaysinrollouts,many
vaccinesceptics,andstiffcontainmentmeasuresinresponsetoeven
limitedoutbreaksleadingtoanirregularrhythminandoutoflockdowns
andoptimismincitiesandnationsaroundtheworld.
MMoreover,worryingnewviruseshavearisenregularlyoverthelast
decadesandwillcontinuetodoso,evenonceCOVID-19islargely
contained.Thedifferenceisourbelatedrealizationthatanynewpathogen
couldtriggeranotherglobalpandemic,sparkingdrasticmeasuresforany
concerningnewviruses.
Onemajorandpositiveshiftisthat,afteryearsofdireandprescient
wwarningsfromepidemiologists,wearefarmorepreparedforthehealth
crisesthatwillinevitablyhappeninourintenselyconnectedworld.
Naonswillcyclebetweenopeningandclosingtocombatcontagion
PandemicPulse
- CenterforDiseaseControlandPreven on,June2020
41%ofAmericansreportedanadversehealthmentalcondion
relatedtoCOVID-19
U.S.plant-basedalesaregrowing14timesfasterthantotalfoodsales.
Thementaltollofthisyearimpactedfarmorepeoplethancoronavirus
itself,withtheelderly,single,disadvantaged,andnewlyunemployed
oftenstrugglingtodealwiththeisolationoflockdownandintense
economicchallenges.
Theresultisanincreasingfocusonwellnessbynations,employers,
ccommunities,families,andindividuals.Empathyhasgrownasmanyhave
experienceddifficultiesandgraspedhowharditmustbeformany
others.Healthsystemswillbedeeplystrained,butwewillhelpeach
othermore.
Theshifttohealthiereatingismovingapace,exemplifiedbythe
long-standingshifttoveganeating.Ourshiftingdietisbeingdrivenby
incincreasedawarenessoftheenvironmentalcostsofmeataswellasthe
availabilityoffartastierplant-basedfoods,thanksinpartto$3billion
venturecapitalinvestmentthisyearintoimprovedmeatalternatives.
Thisyear’schallengeshaveintensifiedourfocusonmentalandphysicalwellbeing
BeingWell
- LillyFamilySchoolofPhilanthropy,IndianaUniversity
IntheearlymonthsoftheCOVID-19pandemic,32%ofAmericans
gavedirectlyand48%gaveindirectlybysuppornglocalcommunity.
- Thomas,August2020
69%ofU.S.manufacturingandindustrialcompanies"arelikelytobring
manufacturingproductionandsourcingbacktoNorthAmerica"
WhileCOVID-19hasacceleratedmanyexistingtrends,ithasturned
aroundthelongstandingdrivetohyper-efficiency,whichassumed
thatgoodscouldbetransportedwheneverneeded.Whenborders
canbeclosedinaninstant,theequationentirelychanges,with
resiliencetoshocksthehighestpriority.
SSpecialistmanufacturingisreturningonshore,local3Dprintingand
assemblyisrising,thedemandforqualitylocalfoodproductionis
soaring,andnationsarefocusingonfoodandenergyindependence.
Inevitablymajornewcriseswillemergeincomingyears,from
climate,disease,terrorism,orconflict.Ourcollectiveresiliencewill
dependdeeplyonoursenseofcommunity,withthoseregions
prioritizinglocal-fiprioritizinglocal-firsteconomies,communityhealthandagedcare,
andcivicinnovationinitiativesfarbetterpositionedtorespondto
adversity.
Wewillpriorizeindependence,localproducon,andcommunity
EfficiencytoResilience
- CiscoWorkforceoftheFutureSurvey,September2020
87%ofofficeworkerswanttheabilitytochoosewhethertoworkfrom
homeoroffice,andmanagetheirhours,evenwhenofficesopenup.
InDecember2020Greeceestablishedadigitalnomadvisathat
seekstoattractremoteworkersbyhalvingtheirincometax.
Aftertheenforcedshifttoremoteworkin2020,feworganizationswillever
resumeworkasweknewit,withmostgraduallyadopting‘hybrid’modelsin
whichstaffcometotheofficewhenusefulbutfrequentlyworkfromhome
orlocal‘thirdspaces’thatallowsocialconnectionsandachangeofscenery.
Thosecompaniesthatprovidegreaterflexibilityandbetterremote
conditionswillattractthemosttalentedandstronglyoutperform.
Organizationsandindividualsarelearninghowtoexcelatvirtualwork,
includingenablingseincludingenablingserendipitousconnectionswithcolleagues,balancing
workandhomelives,ensuringworkerprivacy,andusinganarraynew
technologiesincluding5Gandvirtualrealitytotranscendlocation.
Theshifttoflexibleworkiscontributingtotheriseofthe‘economyof
individuals’,inwhichnotonlyclassicgigworkerssuchasdriversbutalso
high-endprofessionalsshiftfromfull-timeemploymenttoindependent
work,allowingthemtorelocateatchoice.Workerswithtraditional
full-timejobsfull-timejobswillbecomeaminority.
Hybridworkingmodelswillboosttheeconomyofindividuals
WorkReconfigured
In2020threemissionstoMarswerelaunched:NASA’sMars2020,
ChinaNationalSpaceAdministration’sTianwen-1,andUAE’sEmirates
MarsMission,whileElonMusk’sSpaceXaimstosendaStarshiptoMars
in2024.- InternaonalAirTransportAssociaon
Internationaltravelrevenuein2020willbe$191billion,lessthanathird
ofrevenuein2019,withtheairlineindustrylosing$118billionthisyear.
Internationaltravelhasdefinedourage,with4.5billionpeopleflyingin
2019,almosttriplethenumberin2000.In2020thetravellustofmany
executives,families,andadventurershasbeenthwarted,leadingtomassive
pent-updemandtoflyabroad.Yetitwillbeaslowandbumpyroadback.
Initiallytravelbubblesbetweennationsorregionswillopenup(andthen
sometimesclosedownagain),oftenvettedbyhealthpassports,
pre-boardingchecks,anddigitalvaccinationrecords.Thetravelindustrywill
rreshape,withairlinesmerging,pricesadjustingtoensureprofitability,
andnewpremiumservicesforluxurytouristsandbusinesstravelers.
Travelwillgobeyondourplanet,withspacetourismcommencingforthe
wealthy,andthespaceventuresofElonMuskandJeffBezosintenton
buildingmassiveindustriesbeyondEarthincludingresourcemining,moon
bases,colonizingMars,andasaby-productpotentiallyenabling
hhypersonictravel,reducingtheflighttimebetweenSydneyandNewYork
to4hours.
Internaonalflightpathsandconfidencewillresumeonestepata me
VectorsofTravel
- CapGeminiWorldWealthReport2020
Globally,HighNetWorthIndividualsplantoallocate46%oftheir
poroliotosustainableinvesngby2021.
- PewResearchCenter
45%ofAmericanswouldsupportaUniversalBasic
Income,including69%ofthoseunder30.
Theescalatingpolarizationofvalues,society,politics,andwealthoverthe
lastdecadehasbeenevident,withthenetworkeffectsofourconnected
worldcontributingtobotheconomicandsocialdivisions.Acrossnations,
bothlow-paidandhigh-paidjobshavegrown,withthemiddleeviscerated,
leavinganincreasinggapbetweenthehavesandhave-nots.
SSocialmediahasendedupdividingusmorethanbringingustogether,
leadingtothemainstreamingofextremisminplaces.Moststillbelievein
theprincipleofdemocracybutmanydisagreewithhowitisputinto
practice.Thereisanimmenseopportunitytoevolveourdemocratic
structuresforanewera,startingbybeingopentodebateandchange.
TThecomingyearswillbedefinedlargelybyhowsuccessfullywecan
transcendtheseacutedivisions.Thepandemicswiftlyreframedthe
discussionaround“post-capitalism”,withmanysayingtheysupportevery
citizenreceivingabasicincome.Businessleaderswillbeincreasinglyvocal
inespousingtheimportanceofsocialimpactaswellasfinancialreturns.
Wewillstrivetoreverseheightenedschismsineconomies,sociees,andpolics
TranscendingPolariza on
- InsideEVs
GlobalsalesofelectricvehiclesinOctober2020were127%higher
thanayearbefore,withonein20carssoldworldwidenowrenewable.
- InternaonalEnergyAgency
Renewableenergyaccountsforalmost90%oftheincreaseintotalpower
capacitygloballyin2020.
Thepandemicgrabbedattentionawayfromclimatechangebutitis
shiftingback,with2020oneofthethreehottestyearsonrecord,allin
thelastfiveyears,extremetemperaturesintheArcticandSiberia,spi-
rallingwildfiresaroundtheworld,andunprecedentedhurricaneintensi-
ty.
Governmentsleadersgloballyareshiftingfromrhetorictoactionon
carbonreductions,includingpressureontheirpeers.Withenergy
productionaccountingfor72%ofemissions,thereisheightenedimpe-
tustomoveawayfromfossilfuels.Howeverthemarketisalready
ahead,giventhatthecostofenergyproductionfromnewrenewable
projectsisfarbelowthatfortraditionalenergysources.
Forthelast20yearseveryforecastofthepaceoftheshifttorenewable
energyhasbeentooconservative.Thebalancehastippedandweare
swiftlymovingtoarenewable-firstenergyeconomyinwhichmany
householdsproduceaswellasconsumeenergy.
Theinexorableshifromfossilfuelstorenewableenergywillaccelerate
EnergyFlip
- OECDAIPrinciples,adoptedby42countries
“AIshouldbenefitpeopleandtheplanetbydrivinginclusivegrowth,
sustainabledevelopmentandwell-being.”
- FutureofJobsReport2020,WorldEconomicForum
“By2025,97millionnewrolesmayemergethataremoreadaptedtothe
newdivisionoflabourbetweenhumans,machinesandalgorithms.”
Therecontinuestoberemarkableprogressinartificialintelligence,withrecent
landmarksincludingGoogle’sDeepMindsolvingproteinfoldingwith
potentiallymassiveimplicationsfordrugdiscoveryandhealthcare,and
OpenAI’sGPT-3abletowriteconvincingandsometimescompellingarticles.
TTheextraordinaryandrisingcapabilitiesofAIthreatenintensedisruptionto
humanwork.Howeverthenextyearswillbeframedbyleadingcompanies
recognizingtheuniquehumancapabilitiesofexpertise,creativity,
relationships,andethics,anddesigningworksothatAIandhumansarea
system,tappingeach’sdistinctivecompetencestocreatesomethinggreater
thaneachcanachieveontheirown.
EEducationwillbeattheheartofthefutureforusall,andprovidesan
incredibleopportunityforhuman-machinecollaboration.Personalizedlessons
tailoredtoindividuallearningstyles,interests,hobbies,andsocialenvironment
willhelpeveryonelearninthewaybestsuitedtothem.Yetdemandfor
talentedteacherswillsoartoframe,engage,inspire,andconnect,working
withAItomakechildrenandadultsalikereadyfortomorrow.
WewilldesignworkandeducaonsoAIandpeoplecreatevaluetogether
HumanMachineSymbiosis
UKscienstseditedthegenesofahumanembryoin2017,whilea
recentUKlawallowsbabiestoincorporatetheDNAfromthreeparents.
- YouGov
19%ofAmericanswanttoliveforever,whileanadditional42%wantto
livelongerthannormalbutnotforever.
GeneeditingandbiohackingnowallowustoaltertheDNA,notjustof
humanembryos,butalsoofgrownadults.Thefirstapplicationsareof
courseinhelpingthosewithgeneticdisorders,butitisinevitablethat
parentswillseektoimprovetheintelligence,beauty,andathleticism
oftheirchildren.
IItisnotjustvolitionalcontrolofourgenesthatisshapingus,butalsoour
environment.FamousvisionaryMarshallMcLuhanprescientlynotedthat
“weshapeourtools,thenourtoolsshapeus”.Neuroplasticitymeansour
brainsliterallychangedependingontheirenvironment,withpervasive
digitalscreensmoldingourmentalprocesses,andresearchersobserving
‘cognitiveoffloading’ofourthinkingprocessestotechnology.
HHumankind’seternaldesireforimmortalitymayneverbeachieved,but
recentadvancesinmultipledomainssuggestthatcancertreatmentsare
withinreach,andwemaynotjuststopbutreversetheageingprocess,
raisingpointedissuesaboutwhogetsaccesstothesetechnologies.
Humanswillevolvefasterthanatany meinhumanhistory
AcceleratedEvolu on
rossdawson.com
RossDawsonisaglobally-recognizedfuturistand
entrepreneur.Asafuturisthefocusesonvirtual
keynotespeaking,boardandexecutivestrategy
facilitation,andcreatingpowerfulbranded
content.
HeisFoundingChairmanofAdvancedHuman
TTechnologiesGroupandBondiInnovation
Alliance,andtheauthoroffourbooksincluding
LivingNetworks,whichtheNewYorkTimescredits
withpredictingthesocialnetworkingrevolution.

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