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ASEAN and Thailand
                           Issues and Outlook




                                Robert J Twiddy
                              30/31 January 2013


                                 www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
Agenda

      •    Introduction
      •    PESTEL model
      •    Use of PESTEL model in business strategy
      •    PESTEL for ASEAN 2013 to 2020
      •    Analysis precepts
      •    Analysis
      •    Summary




       2     © K-solutions Ltd         www.k-solutions.com and ww.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What is a PEST?
                          (from www.marketingteacher.com)




                                  www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What does PEST stand for?




                            www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What does PEST stand for?




                            www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What does the “P” stand for?




                          www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What does the “P” stand for?
          Political.     What is a synonym for politics?




                                    www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What does the “P” stand for?
          Political.
                   What is a synonym for politics?
          Government. Why is politics important for the
           business environment of a country?




                             www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What does the “P” stand for?
          Political.
                   What is a synonym for politics?
          Government. Why is politics important for the
           business environment of a country?
          The Government makes laws which regulate
           businesses, and this in turn influences the
           spending power of consumers and other
           businesses.




                             www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What are some aspects of Politics that you should
        consider in a PEST Analysis of a country?
        Two are given as examples. Think of three more
        aspects with your partner.
          1.How stable is the political environment?
          2.Will government policy influence laws that regulate
           or tax your business?




                                www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What are some aspects of Politics that you should
        consider in a PEST Analysis of a country?
        Two are given as examples. Think of three more
        aspects with your partner.
          1.How stable is the political environment?
          2.Will government policy influence laws that regulate
           or tax your business?
          3.What is the government's position on marketing
           ethics?




                                www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What are some aspects of Politics that you should
        consider in a PEST Analysis of a country?
        Two are given as examples. Think of three more
        aspects with your partner.
          1.How stable is the political environment?
          2.Will government policy influence laws that regulate
           or tax your business?
          3.What is the government's position on marketing
           ethics?
          4. What is the government's policy on the economy?




                                www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What are some aspects of Politics that you should
        consider in a PEST Analysis of a country?
        Two are given as examples. Think of three more
        aspects with your partner.
          1.How stable is the political environment?
          2.Will government policy influence laws that regulate
           or tax your business?
          3.What is the government's position on marketing
           ethics?
          4. What is the government's policy on the economy?
          5. Does the government have a view on culture and
           religion?




                                www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What are some aspects of Politics that you should
        consider in a PEST Analysis of a country?
        Two are given as examples. Think of three more
        aspects with your partner.
          1.How stable is the political environment?
          2.Will government policy influence laws that regulate
           or tax your business?
          3.What is the government's position on marketing
           ethics?
          4. What is the government's policy on the economy?
          5. Does the government have a view on culture and
           religion?
          6. Is the government involved in Free trade
           agreements such as EU, NAFTA, ASEAN, or others?



                                www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What does the “E” stand for?




                          www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What does the “E” stand for?
            Economic Factors




                                www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What does the “E” stand for?
          Economic Factors
          What are some Economic factors that you should
           consider in a PEST analysis?




                               www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What does the “E” stand for?
          Economic Factors
          What are some Economic factors that you should
           consider in a PEST analysis?
          Two are given as examples. With a partner think of
           three more factors.




                                www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What does the “E” stand for?
          Economic Factors
          What are some Economic factors that you should
           consider in a PEST analysis?
          Two are given as examples. With a partner think of
           three more factors.
          Spending power of the local consumers.




                                www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What does the “E” stand for?
          Economic Factors
          What are some Economic factors that you should
           consider in a PEST analysis?
          Two are given as examples. With a partner think of
           three more factors.
          Spending power of the local consumers.
          Long term prospects for the economy.




                                www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What does the “E” stand for?
          Economic Factors
          What are some Economic factors that you should
           consider in a PEST analysis?
          Two are given as examples. With a partner think of
           three more factors.
          Spending power of the local consumers.
          Long term prospects for the economy.
          The price of oil.




                                www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What does the “E” stand for?
          Economic Factors
          What are some Economic factors that you should
           consider in a PEST analysis?
          Two are given as examples. With a partner think of
           three more factors.
          Spending power of the local consumers.
          Long term prospects for the economy.
          The price of oil.
          Interest rates.




                                www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What does the “E” stand for?
          Economic Factors
          What are some Economic factors that you should
           consider in a PEST analysis?
          Two are given as examples. With a partner think of
           three more factors.
          Spending power of the local consumers.
          Long term prospects for the economy.
          The price of oil.
          Interest rates.
          Unemployment rates.




                                www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What does the “E” stand for?
          Economic Factors
          What are some Economic factors that you should
           consider in a PEST analysis?
          Two are given as examples. With a partner think of
           three more factors.
          Spending power of the local consumers.
          Long term prospects for the economy.
          The price of oil.
          Interest rates.
          Unemployment rates.
          GDP % growth rates.




                                www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What does the “E” stand for?
          Economic Factors
          What are some Economic factors that you should
           consider in a PEST analysis?
          Two are given as examples. With a partner think of
           three more factors.
          Spending power of the local consumers.
          Long term prospects for the economy.
          The price of oil.
          Interest rates.
          Unemployment rates.
          GDP % growth rates.
          Inflation/Deflation rates.




                                www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What does the “S” stand for?




                          www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What does the “S” stand for?
            Social and cultural factors




                                     www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What does the “S” stand for?
          Social and cultural factors
          The social and cultural influences on business vary from
           country to country. It is very important that such factors
           are considered.




                                  www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What does the “S” stand for?
          Social and cultural factors
          The social and cultural influences on business vary from
           country to country. It is very important that such factors
           are considered.
          What are some Social and cultural Factors that we need
           to consider in a PEST analysis?




                                  www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What does the “S” stand for?
          Social and cultural factors
          The social and cultural influences on business vary from
           country to country. It is very important that such factors
           are considered.
          What are some Social and cultural Factors that we need
           to consider in a PEST analysis?
          Again the first two are given as examples. With your
           partner think of three more social factors.




                                  www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What does the “S” stand for?
          Social and cultural factors
          The social and cultural influences on business vary from
           country to country. It is very important that such factors
           are considered.
          What are some Social and cultural Factors that we need
           to consider in a PEST analysis?
          Again the first two are given as examples. With your
           partner think of three more social factors.
          1.What is the dominant religion?




                                  www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What does the “S” stand for?
          Social and cultural factors
          The social and cultural influences on business vary from
           country to country. It is very important that such factors
           are considered.
          What are some Social and cultural Factors that we need
           to consider in a PEST analysis?
          Again the first two are given as examples. With your
           partner think of three more social factors.
          1.What is the dominant religion?
          2.What are attitudes to foreign products and services?




                                  www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What does the “S” stand for?
          Social and cultural factors
          The social and cultural influences on business vary from
           country to country. It is very important that such factors
           are considered.
          What are some Social and cultural Factors that we need
           to consider in a PEST analysis?
          Again the first two are given as examples. With your
           partner think of three more social factors.
          1.What is the dominant religion?
          2.What are attitudes to foreign products and services?
          3.How does language impact product marketing?




                                  www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What does the “S” stand for?
          Social and cultural factors
          The social and cultural influences on business vary from
           country to country. It is very important that such factors
           are considered.
          What are some Social and cultural Factors that we need
           to consider in a PEST analysis?
          Again the first two are given as examples. With your
           partner think of three more social factors.
          1.What is the dominant religion?
          2.What are attitudes to foreign products and services?
          3.How does language impact product marketing?
          4.How much time do consumers have for leisure?




                                  www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What does the “S” stand for?
          Social and cultural factors
          The social and cultural influences on business vary from
           country to country. It is very important that such factors
           are considered.
          What are some Social and cultural Factors that we need
           to consider in a PEST analysis?
          Again the first two are given as examples. With your
           partner think of three more social factors.
          1.What is the dominant religion?
          2.What are attitudes to foreign products and services?
          3.How does language impact product marketing?
          4.How much time do consumers have for leisure?
          5.What are the roles of men and women within society?




                                  www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What does the “S” stand for?
          Social and cultural factors
          The social and cultural influences on business vary from
           country to country. It is very important that such factors
           are considered.
          What are some Social and cultural Factors that we need
           to consider in a PEST analysis?
          Again the first two are given as examples. With your
           partner think of three more social factors.
          1.What is the dominant religion?
          2.What are attitudes to foreign products and services?
          3.How does language impact product marketing?
          4.How much time do consumers have for leisure?
          5.What are the roles of men and women within society?
          6.Do the population have a strong/weak opinion on
           green issues?


                                  www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What does the “T” stand for?




                          www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What does the “T” stand for?
            Technological factors




                                     www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What does the “T” stand for?
            Technological factors
            Technology is vital for competitive advantage, and is a major
             driver of globalization.




                                       www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What does the “T” stand for?
            Technological factors
            Technology is vital for competitive advantage, and is a major
             driver of globalization.
            One factor is given as an example. With your partner try to think
             of two more factors.




                                       www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What does the “T” stand for?
            Technological factors
            Technology is vital for competitive advantage, and is a major
             driver of globalization.
            One factor is given as an example. With your partner try to think
             of two more factors.
            1. Does technology allow for products and services to be made
             more cheaply and to a better standard of quality?




                                       www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What does the “T” stand for?
            Technological factors
            Technology is vital for competitive advantage, and is a major
             driver of globalization.
            One factor is given as an example. With your partner try to think
             of two more factors.
            1. Does technology allow for products and services to be made
             more cheaply and to a better standard of quality?
            2.Do the technologies offer consumers and businesses more
             innovative products and services such as Internet banking, new
             generation mobile telephones, etc?




                                       www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What does the “T” stand for?
            Technological factors
            Technology is vital for competitive advantage, and is a major
             driver of globalization.
            One factor is given as an example. With your partner try to think
             of two more factors.
            1. Does technology allow for products and services to be made
             more cheaply and to a better standard of quality?
            2.Do the technologies offer consumers and businesses more
             innovative products and services such as Internet banking, new
             generation mobile telephones, etc?
            3.How is distribution changed by new technologies e.g. books
             via the Internet, flight tickets, auctions, etc?




                                       www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What does the “T” stand for?
            Technological factors
            Technology is vital for competitive advantage, and is a major
             driver of globalization.
            One factor is given as an example. With your partner try to think
             of two more factors.
            1. Does technology allow for products and services to be made
             more cheaply and to a better standard of quality?
            2.Do the technologies offer consumers and businesses more
             innovative products and services such as Internet banking, new
             generation mobile telephones, etc?
            3.How is distribution changed by new technologies e.g. books
             via the Internet, flight tickets, auctions, etc?
            4.Does technology offer companies a new way to communicate
             with consumers e.g. banners, Customer Relationship
             Management (CRM), etc?




                                       www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What is a PEST Analysis?
          It  is very important that an organization
             considers its environment before beginning the
             marketing process. In fact, environmental
             analysis should be on-going and feed all
             aspects of planning.




                                   www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What is a PEST Analysis?
          It  is very important that an organization
             considers its environment before beginning the
             marketing process. In fact, environmental
             analysis should be on-going and feed all
             aspects of planning.




                                   www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What is a PEST Analysis?
          It  is very important that an organization
             considers its environment before beginning the
             marketing process. In fact, environmental
             analysis should be on-going and feed all
             aspects of planning.

          What           does Environment mean?
             ◦ the social and cultural forces that shape the life of a
               person or a population.




                                      www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
The organization's marketing
                   environment is made up of:




                             www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
The organization's marketing
                   environment is made up of:
          1.   The internal environment e.g. staff (or
             internal customers), office technology, wages
             and finance, etc.




                                www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
The organization's marketing
                   environment is made up of:
          1. The internal environment e.g. staff (or
           internal customers), office technology, wages
           and finance, etc.
          2. The micro-environment e.g. our external
           customers, agents and distributors, suppliers,
           our competitors, etc.




                              www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
The organization's marketing
                   environment is made up of:
          1. The internal environment e.g. staff (or
           internal customers), office technology, wages
           and finance, etc.
          2. The micro-environment e.g. our external
           customers, agents and distributors, suppliers,
           our competitors, etc.
          3. The macro-environment e.g. Political (and
           legal) forces, Economic forces, Sociocultural
           forces, and Technological forces. These are
           known as PEST factors.


                              www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
What are the Legal aspects
          Regulation
          Labor laws
          Import and Export Laws
          Border laws
          International law




                            www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com
                                                                           12

Saturday, 26 January 13
Exercise
          Fill in what you believe are the key PEST for
             Thailand 15mins

                          Political                 Economic




                          Social                    Technology




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                                                                                     13

Saturday, 26 January 13
Southeast Asian Economic Outlook:
                          With Perspectives on China and India
                    Thematic focus: Narrowing development gaps
                                      2013 edition


       ASEAN Business and Investment Summit
     18 November 2012, Phonon Penn

         Rintaro Tamaki , Deputy Secretary General



      www.oecd.org/dev/
      asiapacific


                                           www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
Outlook- Key questions


        • What growth prospects for Asia in 2012-2017?
        • What does ‘narrowing the development gaps in
          ASEAN countries’ mean?
        • Structural policy challenges of Cambodia as an
          example (from Structural policy country notes)
        • What is the main message of the SAEO 2013?




                            www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com   16
Saturday, 26 January 13
Southeast Asia shows resilience, though Emerging Asia, in
particular China will begin to slow gradually…

Real GDP Growth of Southeast Asia, China and India (annual percentage changes)
                                                        2011                    2017                 2000-2007                  2013-2017
          ASEAN-6 countries                                                                                                                
                      Brunei                              2.2                     2.9                        -                         2.4
                    Indonesia                             6.5                     6.6                       5.1                        6.4
                     Malaysia                             5.1                     5.5                       5.5                        5.1
                   Philippines                            3.9                     5.3                       4.9                        5.5
                    Singapore                             4.9                     3.8                       6.4                        3.1
                     Thailand                             0.1                     5.3                       5.1                        5.1
             CLMV countries                                                                                                               
                    Cambodia                              7.1                     7.3                       9.6                        6.9
                     Lao PDR                              8.0                     7.6                       6.8                        7.4
                    Myanmar                               5.5                     6.7                        -                         6.3
                    Viet Nam                              5.9                     6.3                       7.6                        5.6
         China and India
              China                                       9.2                     8.0                      10.5                        8.3
              India                                       6.8                     7.0                       7.1                        6.4
        ASEAN-10 average                                  4.6                     5.8                      5.5(a)                      5.5
          CLMV average                                    6.0                     6.5                      7.8(b)                      5.9
       Emerging Asia average                              7.8                     7.4                      8.6(a)                      7.4
                    Notes: The cut-off date of data is 1 November 2012. a) The average number www.roberttwiddy.com
                                                                      www.k-solutions.com and does not include Brunei and
                    Myanmar. b) The average number does not include Myanmar.                                           Source: OECD Development Centre,
                                                                                                                                  MPF-2013
Saturday, 26 January 13
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Saturday, 26 January 13
Real_GDP_growth                                                                                                                                                                                            17/01/2013 21:17



                                                                                                                                                                                             rtwiddy@k-solutions.com

       Real_GDP_growth                                                                                                                                                                   Comments           Share
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                                                    Real GDP growth - 2011 to 2017

                                             10                                                                                                                                                      Brunei
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Indonesia
         Real annual GDP growth (%)




                                             7.5                                                                                                                                                     Malaysia
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Philippines
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Singapore
                                              5                                                                                                                                                      Thailand
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Cambodia
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Laos
                                             2.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Burma


                                              0                                                                                                                                                      1/2
                                                                        2012                         2013           2014                2015                      2016



                                      Real_GDP_table     Real_GDP_graph         Sheet2      Sheet3




https://docs.google.com/a/k-solutions.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhORuxOwZhGydFJZandxa2hZc3lrR2FTT0NIRmJKZEE#gid=3                                                                                                   Page 1 of 1




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Saturday, 26 January 13
International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook - Google Public Data Explorer                                                                                                             17/01/2013 21:13



      +Robert      Search      Images       Mail     Drive     Calendar      Sites   Groups    Maps       More


                                         Search public data or change visualization                                                                rtwiddy@k-solutions.com       0          Share




      Public Data                                              GDP per capita, current prices         ?


                                                                 $60,000
      International Monetary Fund, World Eco…                                                                                                                                           Singapore
         Balance of Payments
         Commodity Prices                                        $50,000
         Government Finance
         Monetary
         National Accounts                                       $40,000
                                                                                                                                                                                        Brunei Darussalam
            GDP based on PPP per capita GDP
            GDP based on PPP share of worl…
                                                                 $30,000
            GDP based on PPP valuation of c…
        Clear
                                                                                                                                                                                        Malaysia
                                                                                                                                                                                        China
                                                                 $20,000                                                                                                                Thailand
      Compare by       World                                                                                                                                                            Indonesia
                                                                                                                                                                                        Philippines
                                                                                                                                                                                        India
             World                                               $10,000                                                                                                                Vietnam
             Countries                                                                                                                                                                  Lao P.D.R.
                                                                                                                                                                                        Cambodia
                  Afghanistan                                                                                                                                                           Myanmar
                  Albania                                              $0
                  Algeria                                               1980          1985          1990           1995           2000         2005           2010                   2017
                  Angola
                  Antigua and Barbuda                                   1980          1985          1990           1995           2000         2005           2010           2015
                  Argentina
                  Armenia                                      Data from IMF, October 2012 WEO      Last updated: Oct 9, 2012
        Clear selections
                                                               ©2012 Google - Help - Terms of Service - Privacy - Disclaimer - Discuss




 http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=k3s92bru78li6_&ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&me…:Earth&idim=country:KH:BN:CN:IN:LA:MY:MM:PH:SG:VN:TH:ID&ifdim=world&hl=en_US&dl=en_US&ind=false     Page 1 of 1




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Saturday, 26 January 13
Table 1                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           ASEAN Statistics
  Selected basic ASEAN indicators
  as of 15 February 2011

                                                                                                      Annual         Gross domestic           Gross domestic product                                                          5/
                                                                                Population                                                                                                International merchandise trade                                                              4/
                                    Total land area Total population1/                     1/
                                                                                                     population          product
                                                                                                                                  2/
                                                                                                                                                    per capita                                                                                Foreign direct investments infow
                                                                                  density                     1/                                   at current prices
              Country                                                                                 growth          at current prices                                             Exports             Imports            Total trade
                                               2                                                 2
                                                                                                                        US$ million                 2/                   3/       US$ million          US$ million          US$ million           US$ million            US$ million
                                          km                 thousand         persons per km          percent                                  US$            US$ PPP
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2009                  2009                       /p
                                          2009                 2009                 2009               2009                2009                 2009              2009               2009                 2009                                                             2010
    Brunei Darussalam                       5,765                  406.2                    70             2.1              10,758.6          26,486.0          36,177.4               7,168.6             2,399.6                 9,568.2               369.7                247.9
    Cambodia                             181,035                14,957.8                    83             2.1              10,359.2              692.6           1,787.6              4,985.8             3,900.9                 8,886.7               530.2                313.5
    Indonesia                          1,860,360              231,369.5                  124               1.2             546,864.6           2,363.6            4,371.2           116,510.0            96,829.2             213,339.2                4,876.8              6,243.9
    Lao PDR                              236,800                 5,922.1                    25             2.8                5,579.2             910.5           2,250.0              1,237.2             1,725.0                 2,962.1               318.6                100.6
    Malaysia                             330,252                28,306.0                    86             2.1             193,107.7           6,822.0          12,353.3            156,890.9           123,330.5             280,221.4                1,381.0              3,313.0
    Myanmar                              676,577                59,534.3                    88             1.8              24,972.8              419.5           1,138.1              6,341.5             3,849.9             10,191.3                  578.6                    n.a
    The Philippines                      300,000                92,226.6                 307               2.0             161,357.6           1,749.6            3,591.8            38,334.7            45,533.9              83,868.6                1,948.0                732.0
    Singapore                                      710           4,987.6               7,023               3.1             182,701.7          36,631.2          52,871.8            269,832.5           245,784.7             515,617.1              16,808.9              17,341.0
    Thailand                             513,120                66,903.0                 130               0.6             264,322.8           3,950.8            7,943.5           152,497.2           133,769.6             286,266.8                4,975.6              3,511.8
    Viet Nam                             331,212                87,228.4                 263               1.2              96,317.1           1,119.6            3,123.8            56,691.0            69,230.9             125,921.9                7,600.0              4,310.0
  ASEAN                                4,435,830              591,841.0                  133               1.4          1,496,341.3            2,532.5            4,872.9           810,489.2           726,354.1           1,536,843.3              39,387.3              36,113.6

  Sources   ASEAN Finance and Macro-economic Surveillance Unit Database, ASEAN Merchandise Trade Statistics Database, ASEAN Foreign Direct Investment Statistics Database (compiled/computed from data submission,
           publications and/or websites of ASEAN Member States' national statistics offices, central banks and relevant government agencies, and from international sources)
  Symbols used                                                           Notes
      -     not available as of publication time                               1/       Refers to/based on mid-year total population based on country projections, 2009 is preliminary figures
      n.a. not applicable/not available/not compiled                           2/      2009 annual figures for Lao PDR and Myanmar are taken from the IMF WEO Database April 2010.
      Data in italics are the latest updated/revised figures                   3/       Computed based on IMF WEO Database October 2009 estimates and the latest actual country data
           from previous posting.                                              4/       Unless otherwise indicated, figures include equity, reinvested earnings and inter-company loans. Data for 2010 are preliminary figures and covers only first half of the year.
      p/     preliminary                                                       5/       Trade statistics database as of September 2010




                                                                                                                         www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
Evolving development landscape in the region



        • Domestic demand will be an important driver
         of growth in the region.
        • The expansion of the middle class is likely to
         continue to boost domestic demand
        • Fiscal capacity needs to be strengthened
         through better revenue mobilization
        • Managing the extensive dollarization is a
         challenge for CLMV countries



                             www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
Narrowing development gaps is critical towards
 an ASEAN Economic Community

         Greater efforts are required in poverty and human
         capital
                          ASEAN-OECD Narrowing Development Gap Indicators (NDGIs):
                               disparities between ASEAN-6 and CLMV countries

                                     2005                                                                   2011




                                                                  www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com
                      Source: OECD Development Centre and ASEAN Secretariat.

Saturday, 26 January 13
Disparity both “among” and “within” countries
  needs to be addressed in CLMV

                          The picture varies across countries




                          Note: Change in Gini coefficient between: 2004 and 2008 for Cambodia; 2002 and 2008 for
                          Lao PDR; 2004 and 2008 for Viet Nam.

                          Sources: OECD Development Centre, ASEAN Secretariat and World Bank World
                          Development Indicators.       www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
Cambodia’s medium-term policy challenges



                        Build agricultural productivity and
            Agriculture
                        tap the export potential of milled rice

                     Increase enrolment rates at all levels
           Human
                     of education and strengthen training
            capital
                     and vocational education (TVET) to
         development
                     build a skilled labour force

              Reform of
                          Strengthen the banking sector and
               financial
                          prudential measures
                sector


                                 www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
Main messages

        Growing at 5.5% through 2017, ASEAN economies
         show resilience, however, they need to narrow
         development gaps to sustain robust growth

        Disparities need to be examined beyond income level
         differences; and greater efforts are required in
         poverty reduction and human capital development.

        Southeast Asian countries need to rethink new
         growth and development strategies, rely more on
         domestic demand to adapt to changing international
         market conditions


                              www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com


Saturday, 26 January 13
Medium-term structural policy challenges (1):
    from country notes
                                                   Build agricultural productivity and tap the export potential of
                               Agriculture
                                                   milled rice
                             Human capital         Increase enrolment rates at all levels of education and
    Cambodia                 development           strengthen TVET to build a skilled labour force
                           Reform of financial
                                                   Strengthen the banking sector and prudential measures
                                 sector
                                                   Narrow the regional divide by enhancing connectivity and the
                              Infrastructure
                                                   capacity of local government
                                                   Strengthen the capacity of local government to provide
     Indonesia                  Education
                                                   education infrastructure
                                                   Accelerate healthcare reform, in particular, increase coverage
                          Social security reform
                                                   and access to healthcare services
                             Human capital         Strengthen TVET and the education system to address skills
                             development           shortages
      Malaysia               Labour market         Address weaknesses in labour market functioning
                            SME development        Enhance productivity of SMEs
                                                   Improve road transport, power and energy infrastructure and
                              Infrastructure
                                                   strengthen public and private investment
    Philippine               Labour market         Focus firmly on job creation strategies
         s                                         Improve access to quality education and training by
                                Education
                                                   strengthening K+12 programme
                                                      www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com
                                                             Sources: OECD Development Centre, forthcoming Outlook

Saturday, 26 January 13
Medium-term structural policy challenges (2):
  from country notes

                                            Manage foreign worker dependence by increasing the
                           Labour market
                                            productivity of local workforce


    Singapore             SME development
                                            Sustain SME growth through fostering entrepreneurial
                                            environment

                             Innovation     Enhance the innovation capabilities of local enterprises


                              Education     Raise the quality of education and reduce disparities


      Thailand            Healthcare system Achieve a more equitable healthcare system


                           Green economy    Foster green growth through investment and fiscal reforms

                           Human capital    Reform training and education to better meet demand for skilled
                           development      labour

                           Development of   Strengthen the banking system by establishing effective
      Viet Nam             banking sector   supervision

                            SOEs reform     Strengthen market-based reforms and monitoring of SOEs
                                                  www.k-solutions.comOECD Development Centre, forthcoming Outlook
                                                             Sources: and www.roberttwiddy.com

Saturday, 26 January 13
Strategy and ASEAN
                               Study Analysis




                               www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com
                                                                              29

Saturday, 26 January 13
Study
          SET            50 interviews
             ◦   A   Top Level
             ◦   B   Strategic Content
             ◦   C   ASEAN specific
             ◦   D   Strategy to Action

          Analysis Statistical
          Analysis Commentary




                                          www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com
                                                                                         30

Saturday, 26 January 13
Statistics to date
        % using balanced scored 50%
        % quarterly review 100%
        % common strategy theme 25%
        % with feedback systems 20%
        maturity of strategy process 25%

        % problems with ASEAN 90%
        % problem with free flow labor 90%
        % problem investment 100%
        % Compliance 100%

        % problem buying real estate 100%
        % with specific ASEAN objectives 25%
        % supporting ASEAN single market 75%
        % looking internationally not ASEAN specific 25%
        % implement using localisation approach 75%
        % implement using centralised approach 25%

         
                                            www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com
                                                                                           31

Saturday, 26 January 13
Analysis commentary
          Political
             ◦ South China Sea
             ◦ China’s interest in Laos and Cambodia
             ◦ Thai red, yellow, age of the King
             ◦ Corruption in Indonesia
             ◦ Elections




                                   www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com
                                                                                  32

Saturday, 26 January 13
Analysis commentary
          Economic
             ◦ Localisation via Mergers and Acquisition
             ◦ Banking regulations are country specific
             ◦ No single point of ASEAN information
             ◦ Country regulations are not aligned to ASEAN
               roadmaps
             ◦ No immigration changes except specific roles
             ◦ Tariffs have been implemented for ASEAN EC




                                   www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com
                                                                                  33

Saturday, 26 January 13
Analysis commentary
          Social
             ◦ Muslim religion
             ◦ Language - common: English or Chinese?




                                  www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com
                                                                                 34

Saturday, 26 January 13
Analysis commentary
          Technology
             ◦ IT and Telecoms




                                 www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com
                                                                                35

Saturday, 26 January 13
Comparison with EU so far
          Roadmaps    of how to develop three pillars
          No binding laws or contracts
          No common currency or banking regulations
          Multiple religions
          No single borders
          No free work movement




                             www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com
                                                                            36

Saturday, 26 January 13
Summary
          Introduced  you to PESTLE
          ASEAN projection economically
          Analysis of our study to date




                            www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com
                                                                           37

Saturday, 26 January 13
QUESTIONS
                                                            www.asean.org




                          www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com
                                                                            38

Saturday, 26 January 13

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Asean pestle jan 2013

  • 1. ASEAN and Thailand Issues and Outlook Robert J Twiddy 30/31 January 2013 www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 2. Agenda • Introduction • PESTEL model • Use of PESTEL model in business strategy • PESTEL for ASEAN 2013 to 2020 • Analysis precepts • Analysis • Summary 2 © K-solutions Ltd www.k-solutions.com and ww.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 3. What is a PEST? (from www.marketingteacher.com) www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 4. What does PEST stand for? www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 5. What does PEST stand for? www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 6. What does the “P” stand for? www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 7. What does the “P” stand for?  Political. What is a synonym for politics? www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 8. What does the “P” stand for?  Political. What is a synonym for politics?  Government. Why is politics important for the business environment of a country? www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 9. What does the “P” stand for?  Political. What is a synonym for politics?  Government. Why is politics important for the business environment of a country?  The Government makes laws which regulate businesses, and this in turn influences the spending power of consumers and other businesses. www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 10. What are some aspects of Politics that you should consider in a PEST Analysis of a country? Two are given as examples. Think of three more aspects with your partner.  1.How stable is the political environment?  2.Will government policy influence laws that regulate or tax your business? www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 11. What are some aspects of Politics that you should consider in a PEST Analysis of a country? Two are given as examples. Think of three more aspects with your partner.  1.How stable is the political environment?  2.Will government policy influence laws that regulate or tax your business?  3.What is the government's position on marketing ethics? www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 12. What are some aspects of Politics that you should consider in a PEST Analysis of a country? Two are given as examples. Think of three more aspects with your partner.  1.How stable is the political environment?  2.Will government policy influence laws that regulate or tax your business?  3.What is the government's position on marketing ethics?  4. What is the government's policy on the economy? www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 13. What are some aspects of Politics that you should consider in a PEST Analysis of a country? Two are given as examples. Think of three more aspects with your partner.  1.How stable is the political environment?  2.Will government policy influence laws that regulate or tax your business?  3.What is the government's position on marketing ethics?  4. What is the government's policy on the economy?  5. Does the government have a view on culture and religion? www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 14. What are some aspects of Politics that you should consider in a PEST Analysis of a country? Two are given as examples. Think of three more aspects with your partner.  1.How stable is the political environment?  2.Will government policy influence laws that regulate or tax your business?  3.What is the government's position on marketing ethics?  4. What is the government's policy on the economy?  5. Does the government have a view on culture and religion?  6. Is the government involved in Free trade agreements such as EU, NAFTA, ASEAN, or others? www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 15. What does the “E” stand for? www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 16. What does the “E” stand for?  Economic Factors www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 17. What does the “E” stand for?  Economic Factors  What are some Economic factors that you should consider in a PEST analysis? www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 18. What does the “E” stand for?  Economic Factors  What are some Economic factors that you should consider in a PEST analysis?  Two are given as examples. With a partner think of three more factors. www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 19. What does the “E” stand for?  Economic Factors  What are some Economic factors that you should consider in a PEST analysis?  Two are given as examples. With a partner think of three more factors.  Spending power of the local consumers. www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 20. What does the “E” stand for?  Economic Factors  What are some Economic factors that you should consider in a PEST analysis?  Two are given as examples. With a partner think of three more factors.  Spending power of the local consumers.  Long term prospects for the economy. www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 21. What does the “E” stand for?  Economic Factors  What are some Economic factors that you should consider in a PEST analysis?  Two are given as examples. With a partner think of three more factors.  Spending power of the local consumers.  Long term prospects for the economy.  The price of oil. www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 22. What does the “E” stand for?  Economic Factors  What are some Economic factors that you should consider in a PEST analysis?  Two are given as examples. With a partner think of three more factors.  Spending power of the local consumers.  Long term prospects for the economy.  The price of oil.  Interest rates. www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 23. What does the “E” stand for?  Economic Factors  What are some Economic factors that you should consider in a PEST analysis?  Two are given as examples. With a partner think of three more factors.  Spending power of the local consumers.  Long term prospects for the economy.  The price of oil.  Interest rates.  Unemployment rates. www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 24. What does the “E” stand for?  Economic Factors  What are some Economic factors that you should consider in a PEST analysis?  Two are given as examples. With a partner think of three more factors.  Spending power of the local consumers.  Long term prospects for the economy.  The price of oil.  Interest rates.  Unemployment rates.  GDP % growth rates. www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 25. What does the “E” stand for?  Economic Factors  What are some Economic factors that you should consider in a PEST analysis?  Two are given as examples. With a partner think of three more factors.  Spending power of the local consumers.  Long term prospects for the economy.  The price of oil.  Interest rates.  Unemployment rates.  GDP % growth rates.  Inflation/Deflation rates. www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 26. What does the “S” stand for? www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 27. What does the “S” stand for?  Social and cultural factors www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 28. What does the “S” stand for?  Social and cultural factors  The social and cultural influences on business vary from country to country. It is very important that such factors are considered. www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 29. What does the “S” stand for?  Social and cultural factors  The social and cultural influences on business vary from country to country. It is very important that such factors are considered.  What are some Social and cultural Factors that we need to consider in a PEST analysis? www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 30. What does the “S” stand for?  Social and cultural factors  The social and cultural influences on business vary from country to country. It is very important that such factors are considered.  What are some Social and cultural Factors that we need to consider in a PEST analysis?  Again the first two are given as examples. With your partner think of three more social factors. www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 31. What does the “S” stand for?  Social and cultural factors  The social and cultural influences on business vary from country to country. It is very important that such factors are considered.  What are some Social and cultural Factors that we need to consider in a PEST analysis?  Again the first two are given as examples. With your partner think of three more social factors.  1.What is the dominant religion? www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 32. What does the “S” stand for?  Social and cultural factors  The social and cultural influences on business vary from country to country. It is very important that such factors are considered.  What are some Social and cultural Factors that we need to consider in a PEST analysis?  Again the first two are given as examples. With your partner think of three more social factors.  1.What is the dominant religion?  2.What are attitudes to foreign products and services? www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 33. What does the “S” stand for?  Social and cultural factors  The social and cultural influences on business vary from country to country. It is very important that such factors are considered.  What are some Social and cultural Factors that we need to consider in a PEST analysis?  Again the first two are given as examples. With your partner think of three more social factors.  1.What is the dominant religion?  2.What are attitudes to foreign products and services?  3.How does language impact product marketing? www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 34. What does the “S” stand for?  Social and cultural factors  The social and cultural influences on business vary from country to country. It is very important that such factors are considered.  What are some Social and cultural Factors that we need to consider in a PEST analysis?  Again the first two are given as examples. With your partner think of three more social factors.  1.What is the dominant religion?  2.What are attitudes to foreign products and services?  3.How does language impact product marketing?  4.How much time do consumers have for leisure? www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 35. What does the “S” stand for?  Social and cultural factors  The social and cultural influences on business vary from country to country. It is very important that such factors are considered.  What are some Social and cultural Factors that we need to consider in a PEST analysis?  Again the first two are given as examples. With your partner think of three more social factors.  1.What is the dominant religion?  2.What are attitudes to foreign products and services?  3.How does language impact product marketing?  4.How much time do consumers have for leisure?  5.What are the roles of men and women within society? www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 36. What does the “S” stand for?  Social and cultural factors  The social and cultural influences on business vary from country to country. It is very important that such factors are considered.  What are some Social and cultural Factors that we need to consider in a PEST analysis?  Again the first two are given as examples. With your partner think of three more social factors.  1.What is the dominant religion?  2.What are attitudes to foreign products and services?  3.How does language impact product marketing?  4.How much time do consumers have for leisure?  5.What are the roles of men and women within society?  6.Do the population have a strong/weak opinion on green issues? www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 37. What does the “T” stand for? www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 38. What does the “T” stand for?  Technological factors www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 39. What does the “T” stand for?  Technological factors  Technology is vital for competitive advantage, and is a major driver of globalization. www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 40. What does the “T” stand for?  Technological factors  Technology is vital for competitive advantage, and is a major driver of globalization.  One factor is given as an example. With your partner try to think of two more factors. www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 41. What does the “T” stand for?  Technological factors  Technology is vital for competitive advantage, and is a major driver of globalization.  One factor is given as an example. With your partner try to think of two more factors.  1. Does technology allow for products and services to be made more cheaply and to a better standard of quality? www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 42. What does the “T” stand for?  Technological factors  Technology is vital for competitive advantage, and is a major driver of globalization.  One factor is given as an example. With your partner try to think of two more factors.  1. Does technology allow for products and services to be made more cheaply and to a better standard of quality?  2.Do the technologies offer consumers and businesses more innovative products and services such as Internet banking, new generation mobile telephones, etc? www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 43. What does the “T” stand for?  Technological factors  Technology is vital for competitive advantage, and is a major driver of globalization.  One factor is given as an example. With your partner try to think of two more factors.  1. Does technology allow for products and services to be made more cheaply and to a better standard of quality?  2.Do the technologies offer consumers and businesses more innovative products and services such as Internet banking, new generation mobile telephones, etc?  3.How is distribution changed by new technologies e.g. books via the Internet, flight tickets, auctions, etc? www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 44. What does the “T” stand for?  Technological factors  Technology is vital for competitive advantage, and is a major driver of globalization.  One factor is given as an example. With your partner try to think of two more factors.  1. Does technology allow for products and services to be made more cheaply and to a better standard of quality?  2.Do the technologies offer consumers and businesses more innovative products and services such as Internet banking, new generation mobile telephones, etc?  3.How is distribution changed by new technologies e.g. books via the Internet, flight tickets, auctions, etc?  4.Does technology offer companies a new way to communicate with consumers e.g. banners, Customer Relationship Management (CRM), etc? www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 45. What is a PEST Analysis?  It is very important that an organization considers its environment before beginning the marketing process. In fact, environmental analysis should be on-going and feed all aspects of planning. www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 46. What is a PEST Analysis?  It is very important that an organization considers its environment before beginning the marketing process. In fact, environmental analysis should be on-going and feed all aspects of planning. www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 47. What is a PEST Analysis?  It is very important that an organization considers its environment before beginning the marketing process. In fact, environmental analysis should be on-going and feed all aspects of planning.  What does Environment mean? ◦ the social and cultural forces that shape the life of a person or a population. www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 48. The organization's marketing environment is made up of: www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 49. The organization's marketing environment is made up of:  1. The internal environment e.g. staff (or internal customers), office technology, wages and finance, etc. www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 50. The organization's marketing environment is made up of:  1. The internal environment e.g. staff (or internal customers), office technology, wages and finance, etc.  2. The micro-environment e.g. our external customers, agents and distributors, suppliers, our competitors, etc. www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 51. The organization's marketing environment is made up of:  1. The internal environment e.g. staff (or internal customers), office technology, wages and finance, etc.  2. The micro-environment e.g. our external customers, agents and distributors, suppliers, our competitors, etc.  3. The macro-environment e.g. Political (and legal) forces, Economic forces, Sociocultural forces, and Technological forces. These are known as PEST factors. www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 52. What are the Legal aspects  Regulation  Labor laws  Import and Export Laws  Border laws  International law www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com 12 Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 53. Exercise  Fill in what you believe are the key PEST for Thailand 15mins Political Economic Social Technology www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com 13 Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 54. Southeast Asian Economic Outlook: With Perspectives on China and India Thematic focus: Narrowing development gaps 2013 edition ASEAN Business and Investment Summit 18 November 2012, Phonon Penn Rintaro Tamaki , Deputy Secretary General www.oecd.org/dev/ asiapacific www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 55. Outlook- Key questions • What growth prospects for Asia in 2012-2017? • What does ‘narrowing the development gaps in ASEAN countries’ mean? • Structural policy challenges of Cambodia as an example (from Structural policy country notes) • What is the main message of the SAEO 2013? www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 56. www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com 16 Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 57. Southeast Asia shows resilience, though Emerging Asia, in particular China will begin to slow gradually… Real GDP Growth of Southeast Asia, China and India (annual percentage changes)   2011 2017 2000-2007 2013-2017 ASEAN-6 countries         Brunei 2.2 2.9 - 2.4 Indonesia 6.5 6.6 5.1 6.4 Malaysia 5.1 5.5 5.5 5.1 Philippines 3.9 5.3 4.9 5.5 Singapore 4.9 3.8 6.4 3.1 Thailand 0.1 5.3 5.1 5.1 CLMV countries         Cambodia 7.1 7.3 9.6 6.9 Lao PDR 8.0 7.6 6.8 7.4 Myanmar 5.5 6.7 - 6.3 Viet Nam 5.9 6.3 7.6 5.6 China and India China 9.2 8.0 10.5 8.3 India 6.8 7.0 7.1 6.4 ASEAN-10 average 4.6 5.8 5.5(a) 5.5 CLMV average 6.0 6.5 7.8(b) 5.9 Emerging Asia average 7.8 7.4 8.6(a) 7.4 Notes: The cut-off date of data is 1 November 2012. a) The average number www.roberttwiddy.com www.k-solutions.com and does not include Brunei and Myanmar. b) The average number does not include Myanmar. Source: OECD Development Centre, MPF-2013 Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 59. Real_GDP_growth 17/01/2013 21:17 rtwiddy@k-solutions.com Real_GDP_growth Comments Share File Edit View Insert Format Data Tools Help View only New! Improved Comments Chart Insert discussion-style comments Copy chart Advanced edit... Publish chart Save image Delete chart and add notes to cells. Learn more | Dismiss Real GDP growth - 2011 to 2017 10 Brunei Indonesia Real annual GDP growth (%) 7.5 Malaysia Philippines Singapore 5 Thailand Cambodia Laos 2.5 Burma 0 1/2 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Real_GDP_table Real_GDP_graph Sheet2 Sheet3 https://docs.google.com/a/k-solutions.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhORuxOwZhGydFJZandxa2hZc3lrR2FTT0NIRmJKZEE#gid=3 Page 1 of 1 www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 60. International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook - Google Public Data Explorer 17/01/2013 21:13 +Robert Search Images Mail Drive Calendar Sites Groups Maps More Search public data or change visualization rtwiddy@k-solutions.com 0 Share Public Data GDP per capita, current prices ? $60,000 International Monetary Fund, World Eco… Singapore Balance of Payments Commodity Prices $50,000 Government Finance Monetary National Accounts $40,000 Brunei Darussalam GDP based on PPP per capita GDP GDP based on PPP share of worl… $30,000 GDP based on PPP valuation of c… Clear Malaysia China $20,000 Thailand Compare by World Indonesia Philippines India World $10,000 Vietnam Countries Lao P.D.R. Cambodia Afghanistan Myanmar Albania $0 Algeria 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2017 Angola Antigua and Barbuda 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Argentina Armenia Data from IMF, October 2012 WEO Last updated: Oct 9, 2012 Clear selections ©2012 Google - Help - Terms of Service - Privacy - Disclaimer - Discuss http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=k3s92bru78li6_&ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&me…:Earth&idim=country:KH:BN:CN:IN:LA:MY:MM:PH:SG:VN:TH:ID&ifdim=world&hl=en_US&dl=en_US&ind=false Page 1 of 1 www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 61. Table 1 ASEAN Statistics Selected basic ASEAN indicators as of 15 February 2011 Annual Gross domestic Gross domestic product 5/ Population International merchandise trade 4/ Total land area Total population1/ 1/ population product 2/ per capita Foreign direct investments infow density 1/ at current prices Country growth at current prices Exports Imports Total trade 2 2 US$ million 2/ 3/ US$ million US$ million US$ million US$ million US$ million km thousand persons per km percent US$ US$ PPP 2009 2009 /p 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 Brunei Darussalam 5,765 406.2 70 2.1 10,758.6 26,486.0 36,177.4 7,168.6 2,399.6 9,568.2 369.7 247.9 Cambodia 181,035 14,957.8 83 2.1 10,359.2 692.6 1,787.6 4,985.8 3,900.9 8,886.7 530.2 313.5 Indonesia 1,860,360 231,369.5 124 1.2 546,864.6 2,363.6 4,371.2 116,510.0 96,829.2 213,339.2 4,876.8 6,243.9 Lao PDR 236,800 5,922.1 25 2.8 5,579.2 910.5 2,250.0 1,237.2 1,725.0 2,962.1 318.6 100.6 Malaysia 330,252 28,306.0 86 2.1 193,107.7 6,822.0 12,353.3 156,890.9 123,330.5 280,221.4 1,381.0 3,313.0 Myanmar 676,577 59,534.3 88 1.8 24,972.8 419.5 1,138.1 6,341.5 3,849.9 10,191.3 578.6 n.a The Philippines 300,000 92,226.6 307 2.0 161,357.6 1,749.6 3,591.8 38,334.7 45,533.9 83,868.6 1,948.0 732.0 Singapore 710 4,987.6 7,023 3.1 182,701.7 36,631.2 52,871.8 269,832.5 245,784.7 515,617.1 16,808.9 17,341.0 Thailand 513,120 66,903.0 130 0.6 264,322.8 3,950.8 7,943.5 152,497.2 133,769.6 286,266.8 4,975.6 3,511.8 Viet Nam 331,212 87,228.4 263 1.2 96,317.1 1,119.6 3,123.8 56,691.0 69,230.9 125,921.9 7,600.0 4,310.0 ASEAN 4,435,830 591,841.0 133 1.4 1,496,341.3 2,532.5 4,872.9 810,489.2 726,354.1 1,536,843.3 39,387.3 36,113.6 Sources ASEAN Finance and Macro-economic Surveillance Unit Database, ASEAN Merchandise Trade Statistics Database, ASEAN Foreign Direct Investment Statistics Database (compiled/computed from data submission, publications and/or websites of ASEAN Member States' national statistics offices, central banks and relevant government agencies, and from international sources) Symbols used Notes - not available as of publication time 1/ Refers to/based on mid-year total population based on country projections, 2009 is preliminary figures n.a. not applicable/not available/not compiled 2/ 2009 annual figures for Lao PDR and Myanmar are taken from the IMF WEO Database April 2010. Data in italics are the latest updated/revised figures 3/ Computed based on IMF WEO Database October 2009 estimates and the latest actual country data from previous posting. 4/ Unless otherwise indicated, figures include equity, reinvested earnings and inter-company loans. Data for 2010 are preliminary figures and covers only first half of the year. p/ preliminary 5/ Trade statistics database as of September 2010 www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 62. Evolving development landscape in the region • Domestic demand will be an important driver of growth in the region. • The expansion of the middle class is likely to continue to boost domestic demand • Fiscal capacity needs to be strengthened through better revenue mobilization • Managing the extensive dollarization is a challenge for CLMV countries www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 63. Narrowing development gaps is critical towards an ASEAN Economic Community Greater efforts are required in poverty and human capital ASEAN-OECD Narrowing Development Gap Indicators (NDGIs): disparities between ASEAN-6 and CLMV countries 2005 2011 www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Source: OECD Development Centre and ASEAN Secretariat. Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 64. Disparity both “among” and “within” countries needs to be addressed in CLMV The picture varies across countries Note: Change in Gini coefficient between: 2004 and 2008 for Cambodia; 2002 and 2008 for Lao PDR; 2004 and 2008 for Viet Nam. Sources: OECD Development Centre, ASEAN Secretariat and World Bank World Development Indicators. www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 65. Cambodia’s medium-term policy challenges Build agricultural productivity and Agriculture tap the export potential of milled rice Increase enrolment rates at all levels Human of education and strengthen training capital and vocational education (TVET) to development build a skilled labour force Reform of Strengthen the banking sector and financial prudential measures sector www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 66. Main messages Growing at 5.5% through 2017, ASEAN economies show resilience, however, they need to narrow development gaps to sustain robust growth Disparities need to be examined beyond income level differences; and greater efforts are required in poverty reduction and human capital development. Southeast Asian countries need to rethink new growth and development strategies, rely more on domestic demand to adapt to changing international market conditions www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 67. Medium-term structural policy challenges (1): from country notes Build agricultural productivity and tap the export potential of Agriculture milled rice Human capital Increase enrolment rates at all levels of education and Cambodia development strengthen TVET to build a skilled labour force Reform of financial Strengthen the banking sector and prudential measures sector Narrow the regional divide by enhancing connectivity and the Infrastructure capacity of local government Strengthen the capacity of local government to provide Indonesia Education education infrastructure Accelerate healthcare reform, in particular, increase coverage Social security reform and access to healthcare services Human capital Strengthen TVET and the education system to address skills development shortages Malaysia Labour market Address weaknesses in labour market functioning SME development Enhance productivity of SMEs Improve road transport, power and energy infrastructure and Infrastructure strengthen public and private investment Philippine Labour market Focus firmly on job creation strategies s Improve access to quality education and training by Education strengthening K+12 programme www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com Sources: OECD Development Centre, forthcoming Outlook Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 68. Medium-term structural policy challenges (2): from country notes Manage foreign worker dependence by increasing the Labour market productivity of local workforce Singapore SME development Sustain SME growth through fostering entrepreneurial environment Innovation Enhance the innovation capabilities of local enterprises Education Raise the quality of education and reduce disparities Thailand Healthcare system Achieve a more equitable healthcare system Green economy Foster green growth through investment and fiscal reforms Human capital Reform training and education to better meet demand for skilled development labour Development of Strengthen the banking system by establishing effective Viet Nam banking sector supervision SOEs reform Strengthen market-based reforms and monitoring of SOEs www.k-solutions.comOECD Development Centre, forthcoming Outlook Sources: and www.roberttwiddy.com Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 69. Strategy and ASEAN Study Analysis www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com 29 Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 70. Study  SET 50 interviews ◦ A Top Level ◦ B Strategic Content ◦ C ASEAN specific ◦ D Strategy to Action  Analysis Statistical  Analysis Commentary www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com 30 Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 71. Statistics to date % using balanced scored 50% % quarterly review 100% % common strategy theme 25% % with feedback systems 20% maturity of strategy process 25% % problems with ASEAN 90% % problem with free flow labor 90% % problem investment 100% % Compliance 100% % problem buying real estate 100% % with specific ASEAN objectives 25% % supporting ASEAN single market 75% % looking internationally not ASEAN specific 25% % implement using localisation approach 75% % implement using centralised approach 25%  www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com 31 Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 72. Analysis commentary  Political ◦ South China Sea ◦ China’s interest in Laos and Cambodia ◦ Thai red, yellow, age of the King ◦ Corruption in Indonesia ◦ Elections www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com 32 Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 73. Analysis commentary  Economic ◦ Localisation via Mergers and Acquisition ◦ Banking regulations are country specific ◦ No single point of ASEAN information ◦ Country regulations are not aligned to ASEAN roadmaps ◦ No immigration changes except specific roles ◦ Tariffs have been implemented for ASEAN EC www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com 33 Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 74. Analysis commentary  Social ◦ Muslim religion ◦ Language - common: English or Chinese? www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com 34 Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 75. Analysis commentary  Technology ◦ IT and Telecoms www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com 35 Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 76. Comparison with EU so far  Roadmaps of how to develop three pillars  No binding laws or contracts  No common currency or banking regulations  Multiple religions  No single borders  No free work movement www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com 36 Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 77. Summary  Introduced you to PESTLE  ASEAN projection economically  Analysis of our study to date www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com 37 Saturday, 26 January 13
  • 78. QUESTIONS www.asean.org www.k-solutions.com and www.roberttwiddy.com 38 Saturday, 26 January 13