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2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
1
Data Science Meets Community
Impact
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
2
FL-DSSG Team
Program Directors
Dr. Dan Richard
Associate Professor of Psychology,
University of North Florida (UNF)
Dr. Karthikeyan Umapathy
Associate Professor of Computing,
Distinguished FIS Professor,
University of North Florida (UNF)
Advisory Board Members
Arri Landsman-Roos
Vice President of Decision Science
Jacksonville Jaguars
Robert Marsh
Chief Technology Officer
NLP Logix
Candace Dorn
Cybersecurity Analytics
JEA
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
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Chad Gardner
Data Analyst,
NLP Logix
Jay Lewis
Digital Insights &
Analytics Manager,
TIAA Bank
Victor C. Li
Advanced Analytics Developer,
Jacksonville Jaguars
David Garfunkel
President
LIFT JAX
Industry Sherpas
Andrew Pantazi
Founding Editor at The
Tributary: A Northeast Florida
Journalism Collective
Laurel Wainwright
Environmental Services,
JEA
James Healy
Actuarial Analyst / Data Analyst,
JEA
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
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Dr. Haiyan Huang
Computer Information Systems
Flagler College
Dr. Beyza Aslan
Mathematics & Statistics, UNF
Dr. Gordon Ratika
Anthropology, UNF
Faculty Leads
Dr. Xudong Liu
Computing, UNF
Dr. Amanda Pascale
Higher Education Administration,
UNF
Dr. Sandeep Reddivari
Computing, UNF
Dr. Michelle DeDeo
Mathematics & Statistics, UNF
Special thanks to Dr. Mike Binder (Political
Science) and Dr. Hana Hamadi (Health
Administration)
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
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2021 FL-DSSG Interns
Payal Agarwal
Computer Science,
Master of Science,
UNF
Thomas Hunt
Mathematical Science - Statistics,
Master of Science Student,
UNF
Joyner Johnson
Computing and Information Sciences
Master of Science Student,
UNF
Madisen Reasonover
Psychological Sciences,
Master of Science Student,
UNF
Lindsay Regan
Psychology,
Bachelor of Science Student
UNF
Wanyue Xiao
Computer Science,
Master of Science Student,
Brandeis University
Mark Zamani
Biostatistics,
Doctor of Philosophy Student,
FSU
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
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Summer
internship
program open to
all UNF students
(undergraduate
and graduate)
Social Sciences:
15
UNF: 28
Masters: 24
Duval: 14
Nassau: 2
Orange: 1
Palm Beach: 1
38 18
2017
Florida Data
Science for Social
Good
(FL-DSSG)
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
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DSSG Project
during Academic
Semesters
30-Year Retrospective
Study
Generational Impact of the Affordable
Housing Program on Partner Families
Dr. Tes Tuason
UNF Public Health
Dr. Emily Maiden
Public Administration
Dr. Richard Buttimer
Economics
Anita Fuglestad
Psychology
Athlene Jones & Lital Israel
Computing
Jacob Perez, Kelly Perniciaro, &
Darlene Ramirez
Public Health
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
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2021 FL-DSSG Summer Internship Projects
1. Barnabas Center - Health Service Impacts on Emergency Department Utilization
2. Jewish Family and Community Services - Identifying Trends in Patient
Scheduling for Counseling Services
3. League of Women Voters of Florida – Finding Insights in Florida Voter
Participation
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
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Fuel of 21st
Century
Problem of
Demand & Supply
A Lucrative Career
Data Science is
Future
Data Science is
Changing the World
Data Science is Hard!
Why Learn
Data Science?
Source: https://data-flair.training/blogs/why-learn-data-science/
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
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Identify a Nonprofit or Public
sector organization with a
”Wicked Problem”
Gather Data and
Formulate a Plan
Analyze the
Data
Improve Decision
Making Process
for the Client
Data Science for Social Good (DSSG)
DSSG concept formed and started at the University of Chicago in 2013.
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
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Gaining actionable
insights from data
Helping Public Sector
and Nonprofit
Organizations make
data-driven decisions
Training data scientists
with social conscious
Florida Data Science for Social Good (FL-DSSG)
“Social Trustees of
Knowledge”
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
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Other DSSG Programs
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
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UNF College of Arts & Sciences
FIS Computing Distinguished Professorship Award
Jaguars Foundation
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
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Deirdre Conner
Nonprofit Center Senior Director
Dr. Sherif Elfayoumy
UNF School of Computing Director
Dr. Lori Lange
UNF Department of Psychology Chair
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
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Dr. Karen Patterson
UNF Provost
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
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2021 FL-DSSG Projects
1. Barnabas Center - Health Service Impacts on Emergency Department Utilization
2. Jewish Family and Community Services - Identifying Trends in Patient
Scheduling for Counseling Services
3. League of Women Voters of Florida – Finding Insights in Florida Voter
Participation
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
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Health Service Impacts on
Emergency Department Utilization
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
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Wicked Problem: Emergency Department (ED)
Utilization
$27.5b
Southern hospitals:
Aggregate ED visit
costs, 2017
144.8m
Nationwide ED visits
$76.3b
Nationwide aggregate ED
visit costs, 2017
Source: Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP), 2017
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
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Access to Healthcare
• In 2017, Nassau County identified as a Health
Professional Shortage Area (HPSA) due to lack
of primary care services (Health Resources and
Services Administration, 2017)
Sources: Nassau County Community Health Status Assessment, 2018
Hilliard
Yulee
Callahan
Healthcare Facilities
Census Pop. 2010
0 - 4000
40001 - 6500
6501 - 9500
9501 - 14437
Health Department
Hospital
I-95
City Limit
H
H
Fernandina Beach
• Nassau County has significantly fewer
Licensed Physicians compared to FL
133.1
274.6
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
NASSAU
FLORIDA
Licensed Physicians (per 100,000)
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
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Poverty Rates in Nassau County
Sources: Florida Department of Health, 2021; Nassau County, FL ALICE Report,
2020; Office of Economic and Demographic Research, 2021
Unemployment
Rate (2019)
Nassau Florida
5.9% 3.3%
Households
Receiving Cash
Public Assistance
(2019)
Nassau Florida
10.1% 14.1%
Population
Below Poverty
Level
(2019)
Nassau Florida
10.5% 14%
ALICE
Households
(2018)
Nassau
Florid
a
26% 33%
45%
uninsured!
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
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Dental
Care
Food
Assistance
Crisis
Assistance
Retail
Store
Funding
Barnabas Center Services
Services targeted towards
vulnerable populations:
- Uninsured
- Below Federal Poverty Line
Partner
with
Baptist
Primary
Health
Care
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Project Goals
Identify high
utilizers of the ED
Determine % reduction in
ED visits for established
Barnabas patients
Compare ED visit rates with
non-Barnabas patients
Recommend
improvements to health
service utilization
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
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Data Received
- ED visit data 2014-
2020
- Barnabas + non-
Barnabas patients
- ICD codes
- 12,000 rows
01
- All visits 2014-2020
- Clinic visit dates
- Encounter types
- Demographic
information
- 25,000 rows
02
- Clinic visit dates
- Zip Code
- Demographic
information
- Some duplicates with
office visit file
- 3,300 rows
03
Standardized patient identifier across all 3 data types
Baptist ED Barnabas
Clinic Visits
New Patient
Visits
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
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Nassau County
Duval County
Hilliard
Jacksonville
Callahan
Yulee
Fernandina Beach
Jacksonville Beach
Middleburg
Hilliard
Jacksonville
Callahan
Yulee
Fernandina Beach
Jacksonville Beach
Middleburg
Barnabas Weaver Center
Barnabas
Satellite Clinic
Barnabas
Dental Clinic
Hilliard
Jacksonville
Callahan
Yulee
Fernandina Beach
Jacksonville Beach
Middleburg
Barnabas Weaver Center
Barnabas
Satellite Clinic
Barnabas
Dental Clinic
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
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Patient Demographics
Clinic visits ED visits
1256 Barnabas Patients
50 = M age
Key Point
1737 Unique Patient IDs
51 = M age
Key Point
2605 Unique Patient IDs
49 = M age
~59% female
~63% medical fee rate $10
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
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Undifferentiated
Average ED
Visit Cost
Average Cost
across years to
create cost in
2019 $
Goal:
Undifferentiated
Cost based on
Top 4 ED
Diagnoses, 2016-
2019
Goal: Differentiated
Cost based on ICD
Codes
ED Cost Analysis for Nassau County
Actual Cost
Data
Unavailable
$5,072
Acute upper respiratory
infection, unspecified
Chest pain, unspecified
Other chest pain
Urinary tract infection,
site not specified
$1,561
$6,982
$7,891
$3,855
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
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ED Cost Savings
5.2 M
8.2 M
5.1 M
6.3 M
6.8 M 6.9 M
7.0 M
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
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Identify high
utilizers of the ED
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
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High Utilizer ED Savings
High ED Utilizer
>4 ED visits in a year
Unique Patients
356
$ 10.5 million
2019 $ 1.1 million
2018 $ 1.5 million
2017 $ 2.0 million
2016 $ 1.9 million
2015 $ 1.6 million
2014 $ 1.7 million
2020 $ 0.8 million
Average Age
50
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
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High Utilizer ED Visit Time Heat Map
Majority of visits in
that 10 AM - 5 PM
timeframe
Significant amount of
weekend visits during
non-Barnabas hours
Least common hours
for visiting were very
early morning or late
night
Barnabas Clinic Hours
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
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ED Visits Time Heat Map
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
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Determine % reduction in ED visits
for established Barnabas patients
Compare ED visit rates with
non-Barnabas patients
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
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Barnabas
Non-Barnabas
Selection
Bias:
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
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Barnabas vs. Non-Barnabas Patients
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
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Comorbidity Scores
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
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Barnabas
Non-Barnabas
Selection
Bias:
Match on
Age
Year of first ED visit
Comorbidity Scores
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
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Matching Non-Barnabas to Barnabas Patients
Feature
Sampling
Matching on Common
Characteristics
Category Matching
296 Matched Pairs
Logistic Regression
Odds of Showing High
Utilization
Compare ED Visits
One Year Before, During & After
New Patient Date for Barnabas
Low Model Fit
R 2 = .05
Best Predictor:
Year of First ED Visit, 35%  Odds
01
Probability of HU 9%
for Non-Barnabas & Barnabas Groups
02
03
04
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
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Reduction in ED Visits Post New Patient
1.48
1.19
1.81
1.29
Before After Before After
Barnabas
20%
29%
• Approximate 10% reduction in ED
visits when Barnabas Clinic new
patient visits are present
• May represent a lower bound estimate
• Additional time past one year may
show continued benefits
• Additional research needed on patient
characteristics for better matching
criteria
Non-Barnabas
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
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Recommend
improvements to health
service utilization
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
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Recommendations to Barnabas Center
01 02 03 04
Modifying Hours Weekends Intake Forms Referrals
Open early on weekdays
to service general ED
utilizers
Open midday on
weekends to service
high ED utilizers
Modify intake forms
to assess
comorbidity risk of
patients
Improve referral
process to better serve
patient needs and
quality of care
Improved health service utilization
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
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Identifying Trends in Patient Scheduling for
Counseling Services
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
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Financial
Strain
Patient and
Therapist
Schedules Childcare
Stigma
Criminal
Justice
System
Addiction
Obstacles to Patient Care
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v
v
Jewish Family
and Community
Services (JFCS)
Dupont
Counseling Group
Circle of Security
Parenting Classes
Substance
Abuse
Counseling
Mental Health
Counseling
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Project Focus
JFCS Challenges
Text Mining & Visualization
Investigating and visualizing factors that
influence “No Show” rate
Client’s “No Show” Rate
Searching ways to reduce “No Show” rate
Business Process
Generating a tailored scheduling process
Recommendations
Providing recommendation report with
in-depth research
Billing Methods & Procedures
Consistent billing across programs
Patient Scheduling Process
Seeking measures for consistent
therapy appointments
DSSG Goals
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
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Data Received
ECR Records
Patient therapy services,
length of service, and
reason for discharge
Caseloads and
Scheduling Statistics
Aggregated information by
therapists
Google
Calendar
9 therapists
July 2017 to July 2021
16,775 appointments
17
Therapist name
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
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Calendar Data: Unstructured to Structured
D
C
B
Data Merging
Combing individual therapist
appointment information
Text Mining
Using Keywords detection and
co-reference resolution
Tableau Dashboard
Visualizing data to identify trends
Data Issues
• Missing data, errors, and
unstructured data
• Various ways to record status
of appointments
• Inconsistent reporting
mechanism on no-shows and
cancellation
A
Data Extraction
Appointment information
from ICS files
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No-show and Cancellation with Intake Program
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No-show and Cancellation without Intake Program
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No-show and Cancellation by Weekday
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Unsuccessful Discharge Reasons
Count of Services 396
Total Length of
Service
63,252
Avg. Length of
Service
159.7
Count of
Therapists
5
107
37
20
11
3
2
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
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Transforming from Implicit to Explicit Process
Zoom Meetings
JFCS provided overview of
current scheduling process
Extraction of Process Elements
Documenting the process - from referral to
therapist assignment
Review and Refine
Scheduling process was modified and
refined based on JFCS feedback
Identifying Areas of Improvement
Recommendations for scheduling process
efficiencies and consistent data collection
procedures
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
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Segment of Scheduling Workflow
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
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Recommendations
Referrals
Records Check
Verify Patient
Particulars
Prior: use Google form for patient intake info
Suggestion: Use Google forms to connect patient ECR records
Allows for quicker verification of patient info by employing simplicity in the Google form search
Prior: search ECR for patient records
Suggestion: Create identification system for patient records
Saves times on records search by insuring no duplicate patients
No-show
process
No-show records
Prior: patient data deleted from calendar upon no-show
Suggestion: Add key phrase to differentiate calendar entries
Allows for pattern recognition in patient attendance
Suggestion: Standardize no-show procedures and data collection
system
Allows for a quick reference on how no-shows work and streamlines the process
No-show
Practice
s
Prior: lack of consistency in no-show reporting
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Finding Insights in Florida Voter Participation
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
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29
1920
LWV-US founded ~
6 months before
the passage of the
19th Amendment
Florida League
founded
Florida chapters
increasing “participation in
government” plus
education on public issues
Nonpartisan: No political party affiliation
League of Women Voters (LWV)
1939
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
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League of Women Voters - Florida
Legislative
priorities
centered around
policy issues
Registering returning
citizens: Amendment
4
Voter services
including
registration and
education: Vote
411 text campaign
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
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From Wicked Problem
Access to voting
An important part
of participation in
government
Access to information
Transformation through
data
Maximizing impact
Prospective voters might not
know the requirements of
keeping their registration or
active status maintained
By using data, the league can
make decisions with more
complete information
With more data open to
the public, our client can
have a larger impact
to Opportunity
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
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Project Focus
Voter registration and
turnout in Florida
Geographic focus on
voting
Recommendations to increase
voter registration and turnout
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
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• County code
• Voter ID
Common
Items
Raw Data Source
 Data from Florida Division of Elections
 2 types of voter data
 Based on 67 county files each
Thanks to
Dr. Mike Binder
for sharing data
files
• File size – based on
population [range of file size –
~1.6M]
• Total columns – 38 [Address,
Mailing Address, Gender,
DOB, Last Registration Date,
etc]
Voter Registration
• Election info [2006 - 2020]
• File size – based on voter’s
participation in all elections
[range – ~10M]
• Total columns – 5 [Election
Type , Election Date, History
Code]
Voter History
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Data Preparation -
 Removed unwanted
variables
• Voter’s name
• Address
• DOB etc.
 Used panda's
framework for splitting
large files
• E.g. :- Miami Dade,
Broward
 Extracted non-
identifying variables
• Voter ID
• County Code
• Residential Zip
code etc.
Data Cleaning Splitting Large Files Data Extraction
Voter
Registration
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
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Data Preparation -Voter
History
Data
Sorting
Organized county
files with unique
voter ID
Data
Filtration
Based on federal
general elections
held in 2012 -
2020
Data
Extraction
Identified voting
types used by
each voter for
general elections
Generate
Flat Files
Used pandas
framework to
generate flat files
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
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Data Preparation Challenges
Remove
Duplicates
Semi
Duplicates
Recode
Vote Type
Data
Merging
Remove the rows with exact
duplicates
VoterID with misclassified
vote types in same election
Isolated the semi duplicates
and recoded as M
Used left merge operation to
merge voter registration
and voter history files
01 02 03 04
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• General elections data between 2012 – 2020
• 67 files were generated
The columns are:
Voter ID
Registration county code
Residential zip code
Sex
Ethnicity
Age
Precinct coding
District coding
[2012 … 2020] VoteType [see table]
[2012 … 2020] Vote indicator [1 or blank]
[2012 … 2020] County code
Voting History
Code
History Description
Y Voted at Polls
A Voted by Mail
E Voted Early
B Vote-by-Mail Ballot Not Counted
P Provisional Ballot Not Counted
N
Did Not Vote (did not consider by all
counties)
M Misclassified
Data Preparation
- Voter
Registration
+ Voter
History
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Merged Metropolitan/Micropolitan and Rural
Areas
• Used Pandas framework
to combined merged
county files based on
metro and micropolitan
areas
• Total 28 metro/micro and
rural areas encompassing
the entire state
• Adjacent rural areas were
grouped as Panhandle:
Jackson - Liberty and
Panhandle: Madison -
Suwannee Sources: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-
content/uploads/2020/03/Bulletin-20-01.pdf
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Voter Profile Generation
• Classifying the VoterID based on the eligibility and total vote counts on each
general election held between 2012 – 2020
Profile Code Voter Profile Description
1 Always Eligible voters participated in all general elections
2 Increasing
Eligible voters participated recent in general elections but
not in the past elections
3 Intermittent Eligible voters participated in some elections but not all
4 Decreasing
Eligible voters participated past general elections but not
recently
5 Never Voted Eligible voters didn’t participate in the elections
6 Not Eligible Registered but under 18 years of age
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Frequency Table Voter Profile
Rural
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Tallahassee MSA
32304
Miami-Ft. Lauderdale-
Pompano Beach MSA
33411
33311
33023
33024
33025
Orlando-Kissimmee-
Sanford MSA
34787
Tampa-St. Petersburg-
Clearwater MSA
33578
33647
34668
Metropolitan Statistical Areas – Voter Profile Analysis
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Micropolitan Statistical Areas – Voter Profile Analysis
33040
Key West MSA
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Metropolitan Area Comparison – Boosted Tree
Orlando – Kissimmee-
Sanford
34%
16%
15%
16%
Zip Code
2018 Vote Type
Voter Status
Age
30%
14%
18%
15%
Learning Rate: 0.1
Tampa-St. Petersburg-
Clearwater
Misclassification Rate: 0.22
Learning Rate: 0.1
Misclassification Rate: 0.22
Predict:
2020 Participation
Inputs:
2012 to 2018 voter
registration and history data
40%
8%
10%
30%
Miami – Ft. Lauderdale –
Pompano Beach
Learning Rate: 0.1
Misclassification Rate: 0.23
Over 75%
Column Contributions
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
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Registered Voters
Age 18 to 40
Miami – Ft. Lauderdale
– Pompano Beach MSA
33186
33157
33033
33311
33024
33025
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August 17, 2021
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Regional Analysis – Rural MSAs
Panhandle: Jackson - Liberty Panhandle: Madison - Suwannee
32428
32060
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
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Target recently inactive voters
based on voter registration
data
Conduct data collection
about local chapter
activities
Targeted campaigns for
citizens below 40 years of
age
Start chapters in
micropolitan and
rural areas of the
state
Recommendations
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
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What is the project’s big reveal from your perspective?
What will be the impact of the project for your organization?
What are the next steps for your organization?
1
2
3
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
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Barnabas Center
Jewish Family and Community
Services
Eric Forestal Bill Nolan
Chief Operations Officer Chief Operations Officer
League of Women Voters of Florida
Leah Nash
Executive Director
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
75
If you have a question, please use either of two options
Use the Raise Hand feature, host will instruct you to unmute and ask
your question
Use the Q&A feature to post the question anytime, the host will read
and answer it
OR
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
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2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
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FL-DSSG
is seeking
sponsorships
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
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Getting Ready for FL-DSSG 2022
Submit Proposal
Application in
January 2022
Identify Data
Sources and
associated
variables
Get Commitment
from everyone
involved
Identify a Wicked
Problem and its
Social Goodness
2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal
August 17, 2021
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2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal

  • 1. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 1 Data Science Meets Community Impact
  • 2. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 2 FL-DSSG Team Program Directors Dr. Dan Richard Associate Professor of Psychology, University of North Florida (UNF) Dr. Karthikeyan Umapathy Associate Professor of Computing, Distinguished FIS Professor, University of North Florida (UNF) Advisory Board Members Arri Landsman-Roos Vice President of Decision Science Jacksonville Jaguars Robert Marsh Chief Technology Officer NLP Logix Candace Dorn Cybersecurity Analytics JEA
  • 3. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 3 Chad Gardner Data Analyst, NLP Logix Jay Lewis Digital Insights & Analytics Manager, TIAA Bank Victor C. Li Advanced Analytics Developer, Jacksonville Jaguars David Garfunkel President LIFT JAX Industry Sherpas Andrew Pantazi Founding Editor at The Tributary: A Northeast Florida Journalism Collective Laurel Wainwright Environmental Services, JEA James Healy Actuarial Analyst / Data Analyst, JEA
  • 4. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 4 Dr. Haiyan Huang Computer Information Systems Flagler College Dr. Beyza Aslan Mathematics & Statistics, UNF Dr. Gordon Ratika Anthropology, UNF Faculty Leads Dr. Xudong Liu Computing, UNF Dr. Amanda Pascale Higher Education Administration, UNF Dr. Sandeep Reddivari Computing, UNF Dr. Michelle DeDeo Mathematics & Statistics, UNF Special thanks to Dr. Mike Binder (Political Science) and Dr. Hana Hamadi (Health Administration)
  • 5. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 5 2021 FL-DSSG Interns Payal Agarwal Computer Science, Master of Science, UNF Thomas Hunt Mathematical Science - Statistics, Master of Science Student, UNF Joyner Johnson Computing and Information Sciences Master of Science Student, UNF Madisen Reasonover Psychological Sciences, Master of Science Student, UNF Lindsay Regan Psychology, Bachelor of Science Student UNF Wanyue Xiao Computer Science, Master of Science Student, Brandeis University Mark Zamani Biostatistics, Doctor of Philosophy Student, FSU
  • 6. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 6 Summer internship program open to all UNF students (undergraduate and graduate) Social Sciences: 15 UNF: 28 Masters: 24 Duval: 14 Nassau: 2 Orange: 1 Palm Beach: 1 38 18 2017 Florida Data Science for Social Good (FL-DSSG)
  • 7. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 7 DSSG Project during Academic Semesters 30-Year Retrospective Study Generational Impact of the Affordable Housing Program on Partner Families Dr. Tes Tuason UNF Public Health Dr. Emily Maiden Public Administration Dr. Richard Buttimer Economics Anita Fuglestad Psychology Athlene Jones & Lital Israel Computing Jacob Perez, Kelly Perniciaro, & Darlene Ramirez Public Health
  • 8. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 8 2021 FL-DSSG Summer Internship Projects 1. Barnabas Center - Health Service Impacts on Emergency Department Utilization 2. Jewish Family and Community Services - Identifying Trends in Patient Scheduling for Counseling Services 3. League of Women Voters of Florida – Finding Insights in Florida Voter Participation
  • 9. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 9 Fuel of 21st Century Problem of Demand & Supply A Lucrative Career Data Science is Future Data Science is Changing the World Data Science is Hard! Why Learn Data Science? Source: https://data-flair.training/blogs/why-learn-data-science/
  • 10. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 10 Identify a Nonprofit or Public sector organization with a ”Wicked Problem” Gather Data and Formulate a Plan Analyze the Data Improve Decision Making Process for the Client Data Science for Social Good (DSSG) DSSG concept formed and started at the University of Chicago in 2013.
  • 11. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 11 Gaining actionable insights from data Helping Public Sector and Nonprofit Organizations make data-driven decisions Training data scientists with social conscious Florida Data Science for Social Good (FL-DSSG) “Social Trustees of Knowledge”
  • 12. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 12 Other DSSG Programs
  • 13. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 13 UNF College of Arts & Sciences FIS Computing Distinguished Professorship Award Jaguars Foundation
  • 14. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 14 Deirdre Conner Nonprofit Center Senior Director Dr. Sherif Elfayoumy UNF School of Computing Director Dr. Lori Lange UNF Department of Psychology Chair
  • 15. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 15 Dr. Karen Patterson UNF Provost
  • 16. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 16 2021 FL-DSSG Projects 1. Barnabas Center - Health Service Impacts on Emergency Department Utilization 2. Jewish Family and Community Services - Identifying Trends in Patient Scheduling for Counseling Services 3. League of Women Voters of Florida – Finding Insights in Florida Voter Participation
  • 17. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 17 Health Service Impacts on Emergency Department Utilization
  • 18. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 18 Wicked Problem: Emergency Department (ED) Utilization $27.5b Southern hospitals: Aggregate ED visit costs, 2017 144.8m Nationwide ED visits $76.3b Nationwide aggregate ED visit costs, 2017 Source: Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP), 2017
  • 19. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 19 Access to Healthcare • In 2017, Nassau County identified as a Health Professional Shortage Area (HPSA) due to lack of primary care services (Health Resources and Services Administration, 2017) Sources: Nassau County Community Health Status Assessment, 2018 Hilliard Yulee Callahan Healthcare Facilities Census Pop. 2010 0 - 4000 40001 - 6500 6501 - 9500 9501 - 14437 Health Department Hospital I-95 City Limit H H Fernandina Beach • Nassau County has significantly fewer Licensed Physicians compared to FL 133.1 274.6 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 NASSAU FLORIDA Licensed Physicians (per 100,000)
  • 20. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 20 Poverty Rates in Nassau County Sources: Florida Department of Health, 2021; Nassau County, FL ALICE Report, 2020; Office of Economic and Demographic Research, 2021 Unemployment Rate (2019) Nassau Florida 5.9% 3.3% Households Receiving Cash Public Assistance (2019) Nassau Florida 10.1% 14.1% Population Below Poverty Level (2019) Nassau Florida 10.5% 14% ALICE Households (2018) Nassau Florid a 26% 33% 45% uninsured!
  • 21. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 21 Dental Care Food Assistance Crisis Assistance Retail Store Funding Barnabas Center Services Services targeted towards vulnerable populations: - Uninsured - Below Federal Poverty Line Partner with Baptist Primary Health Care
  • 22. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 22 Project Goals Identify high utilizers of the ED Determine % reduction in ED visits for established Barnabas patients Compare ED visit rates with non-Barnabas patients Recommend improvements to health service utilization
  • 23. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 23 Data Received - ED visit data 2014- 2020 - Barnabas + non- Barnabas patients - ICD codes - 12,000 rows 01 - All visits 2014-2020 - Clinic visit dates - Encounter types - Demographic information - 25,000 rows 02 - Clinic visit dates - Zip Code - Demographic information - Some duplicates with office visit file - 3,300 rows 03 Standardized patient identifier across all 3 data types Baptist ED Barnabas Clinic Visits New Patient Visits
  • 24. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 24 Nassau County Duval County Hilliard Jacksonville Callahan Yulee Fernandina Beach Jacksonville Beach Middleburg Hilliard Jacksonville Callahan Yulee Fernandina Beach Jacksonville Beach Middleburg Barnabas Weaver Center Barnabas Satellite Clinic Barnabas Dental Clinic Hilliard Jacksonville Callahan Yulee Fernandina Beach Jacksonville Beach Middleburg Barnabas Weaver Center Barnabas Satellite Clinic Barnabas Dental Clinic
  • 25. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 25 Patient Demographics Clinic visits ED visits 1256 Barnabas Patients 50 = M age Key Point 1737 Unique Patient IDs 51 = M age Key Point 2605 Unique Patient IDs 49 = M age ~59% female ~63% medical fee rate $10
  • 26. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 26 Undifferentiated Average ED Visit Cost Average Cost across years to create cost in 2019 $ Goal: Undifferentiated Cost based on Top 4 ED Diagnoses, 2016- 2019 Goal: Differentiated Cost based on ICD Codes ED Cost Analysis for Nassau County Actual Cost Data Unavailable $5,072 Acute upper respiratory infection, unspecified Chest pain, unspecified Other chest pain Urinary tract infection, site not specified $1,561 $6,982 $7,891 $3,855
  • 27. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 27 ED Cost Savings 5.2 M 8.2 M 5.1 M 6.3 M 6.8 M 6.9 M 7.0 M 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
  • 28. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 28 Identify high utilizers of the ED
  • 29. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 29 High Utilizer ED Savings High ED Utilizer >4 ED visits in a year Unique Patients 356 $ 10.5 million 2019 $ 1.1 million 2018 $ 1.5 million 2017 $ 2.0 million 2016 $ 1.9 million 2015 $ 1.6 million 2014 $ 1.7 million 2020 $ 0.8 million Average Age 50
  • 30. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 30 High Utilizer ED Visit Time Heat Map Majority of visits in that 10 AM - 5 PM timeframe Significant amount of weekend visits during non-Barnabas hours Least common hours for visiting were very early morning or late night Barnabas Clinic Hours
  • 31. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 31 ED Visits Time Heat Map
  • 32. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 32 Determine % reduction in ED visits for established Barnabas patients Compare ED visit rates with non-Barnabas patients
  • 33. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 33 Barnabas Non-Barnabas Selection Bias:
  • 34. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 34 Barnabas vs. Non-Barnabas Patients
  • 35. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 35 Comorbidity Scores
  • 36. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 36 Barnabas Non-Barnabas Selection Bias: Match on Age Year of first ED visit Comorbidity Scores
  • 37. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 37 Matching Non-Barnabas to Barnabas Patients Feature Sampling Matching on Common Characteristics Category Matching 296 Matched Pairs Logistic Regression Odds of Showing High Utilization Compare ED Visits One Year Before, During & After New Patient Date for Barnabas Low Model Fit R 2 = .05 Best Predictor: Year of First ED Visit, 35%  Odds 01 Probability of HU 9% for Non-Barnabas & Barnabas Groups 02 03 04
  • 38. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 38 Reduction in ED Visits Post New Patient 1.48 1.19 1.81 1.29 Before After Before After Barnabas 20% 29% • Approximate 10% reduction in ED visits when Barnabas Clinic new patient visits are present • May represent a lower bound estimate • Additional time past one year may show continued benefits • Additional research needed on patient characteristics for better matching criteria Non-Barnabas
  • 39. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 39 Recommend improvements to health service utilization
  • 40. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 40 Recommendations to Barnabas Center 01 02 03 04 Modifying Hours Weekends Intake Forms Referrals Open early on weekdays to service general ED utilizers Open midday on weekends to service high ED utilizers Modify intake forms to assess comorbidity risk of patients Improve referral process to better serve patient needs and quality of care Improved health service utilization
  • 41. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 41 Identifying Trends in Patient Scheduling for Counseling Services
  • 42. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 42 Financial Strain Patient and Therapist Schedules Childcare Stigma Criminal Justice System Addiction Obstacles to Patient Care
  • 43. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 43 v v Jewish Family and Community Services (JFCS) Dupont Counseling Group Circle of Security Parenting Classes Substance Abuse Counseling Mental Health Counseling
  • 44. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 44 Project Focus JFCS Challenges Text Mining & Visualization Investigating and visualizing factors that influence “No Show” rate Client’s “No Show” Rate Searching ways to reduce “No Show” rate Business Process Generating a tailored scheduling process Recommendations Providing recommendation report with in-depth research Billing Methods & Procedures Consistent billing across programs Patient Scheduling Process Seeking measures for consistent therapy appointments DSSG Goals
  • 45. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 45 Data Received ECR Records Patient therapy services, length of service, and reason for discharge Caseloads and Scheduling Statistics Aggregated information by therapists Google Calendar 9 therapists July 2017 to July 2021 16,775 appointments 17 Therapist name
  • 46. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 46 Calendar Data: Unstructured to Structured D C B Data Merging Combing individual therapist appointment information Text Mining Using Keywords detection and co-reference resolution Tableau Dashboard Visualizing data to identify trends Data Issues • Missing data, errors, and unstructured data • Various ways to record status of appointments • Inconsistent reporting mechanism on no-shows and cancellation A Data Extraction Appointment information from ICS files
  • 47. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 47 No-show and Cancellation with Intake Program
  • 48. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 48 No-show and Cancellation without Intake Program
  • 49. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 49 No-show and Cancellation by Weekday
  • 50. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 50 Unsuccessful Discharge Reasons Count of Services 396 Total Length of Service 63,252 Avg. Length of Service 159.7 Count of Therapists 5 107 37 20 11 3 2 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
  • 51. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 51 Transforming from Implicit to Explicit Process Zoom Meetings JFCS provided overview of current scheduling process Extraction of Process Elements Documenting the process - from referral to therapist assignment Review and Refine Scheduling process was modified and refined based on JFCS feedback Identifying Areas of Improvement Recommendations for scheduling process efficiencies and consistent data collection procedures
  • 52. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 52 Segment of Scheduling Workflow
  • 53. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 53 Recommendations Referrals Records Check Verify Patient Particulars Prior: use Google form for patient intake info Suggestion: Use Google forms to connect patient ECR records Allows for quicker verification of patient info by employing simplicity in the Google form search Prior: search ECR for patient records Suggestion: Create identification system for patient records Saves times on records search by insuring no duplicate patients No-show process No-show records Prior: patient data deleted from calendar upon no-show Suggestion: Add key phrase to differentiate calendar entries Allows for pattern recognition in patient attendance Suggestion: Standardize no-show procedures and data collection system Allows for a quick reference on how no-shows work and streamlines the process No-show Practice s Prior: lack of consistency in no-show reporting
  • 54. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 54 Finding Insights in Florida Voter Participation
  • 55. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 55 29 1920 LWV-US founded ~ 6 months before the passage of the 19th Amendment Florida League founded Florida chapters increasing “participation in government” plus education on public issues Nonpartisan: No political party affiliation League of Women Voters (LWV) 1939
  • 56. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 56 League of Women Voters - Florida Legislative priorities centered around policy issues Registering returning citizens: Amendment 4 Voter services including registration and education: Vote 411 text campaign
  • 57. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 57 From Wicked Problem Access to voting An important part of participation in government Access to information Transformation through data Maximizing impact Prospective voters might not know the requirements of keeping their registration or active status maintained By using data, the league can make decisions with more complete information With more data open to the public, our client can have a larger impact to Opportunity
  • 58. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 58 Project Focus Voter registration and turnout in Florida Geographic focus on voting Recommendations to increase voter registration and turnout
  • 59. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 59 • County code • Voter ID Common Items Raw Data Source  Data from Florida Division of Elections  2 types of voter data  Based on 67 county files each Thanks to Dr. Mike Binder for sharing data files • File size – based on population [range of file size – ~1.6M] • Total columns – 38 [Address, Mailing Address, Gender, DOB, Last Registration Date, etc] Voter Registration • Election info [2006 - 2020] • File size – based on voter’s participation in all elections [range – ~10M] • Total columns – 5 [Election Type , Election Date, History Code] Voter History
  • 60. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 60 Data Preparation -  Removed unwanted variables • Voter’s name • Address • DOB etc.  Used panda's framework for splitting large files • E.g. :- Miami Dade, Broward  Extracted non- identifying variables • Voter ID • County Code • Residential Zip code etc. Data Cleaning Splitting Large Files Data Extraction Voter Registration
  • 61. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 61 Data Preparation -Voter History Data Sorting Organized county files with unique voter ID Data Filtration Based on federal general elections held in 2012 - 2020 Data Extraction Identified voting types used by each voter for general elections Generate Flat Files Used pandas framework to generate flat files
  • 62. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 62 Data Preparation Challenges Remove Duplicates Semi Duplicates Recode Vote Type Data Merging Remove the rows with exact duplicates VoterID with misclassified vote types in same election Isolated the semi duplicates and recoded as M Used left merge operation to merge voter registration and voter history files 01 02 03 04
  • 63. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 63 • General elections data between 2012 – 2020 • 67 files were generated The columns are: Voter ID Registration county code Residential zip code Sex Ethnicity Age Precinct coding District coding [2012 … 2020] VoteType [see table] [2012 … 2020] Vote indicator [1 or blank] [2012 … 2020] County code Voting History Code History Description Y Voted at Polls A Voted by Mail E Voted Early B Vote-by-Mail Ballot Not Counted P Provisional Ballot Not Counted N Did Not Vote (did not consider by all counties) M Misclassified Data Preparation - Voter Registration + Voter History
  • 64. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 64 Merged Metropolitan/Micropolitan and Rural Areas • Used Pandas framework to combined merged county files based on metro and micropolitan areas • Total 28 metro/micro and rural areas encompassing the entire state • Adjacent rural areas were grouped as Panhandle: Jackson - Liberty and Panhandle: Madison - Suwannee Sources: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp- content/uploads/2020/03/Bulletin-20-01.pdf
  • 65. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 65 Voter Profile Generation • Classifying the VoterID based on the eligibility and total vote counts on each general election held between 2012 – 2020 Profile Code Voter Profile Description 1 Always Eligible voters participated in all general elections 2 Increasing Eligible voters participated recent in general elections but not in the past elections 3 Intermittent Eligible voters participated in some elections but not all 4 Decreasing Eligible voters participated past general elections but not recently 5 Never Voted Eligible voters didn’t participate in the elections 6 Not Eligible Registered but under 18 years of age
  • 66. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 66 Frequency Table Voter Profile Rural
  • 67. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 67 Tallahassee MSA 32304 Miami-Ft. Lauderdale- Pompano Beach MSA 33411 33311 33023 33024 33025 Orlando-Kissimmee- Sanford MSA 34787 Tampa-St. Petersburg- Clearwater MSA 33578 33647 34668 Metropolitan Statistical Areas – Voter Profile Analysis
  • 68. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 68 Micropolitan Statistical Areas – Voter Profile Analysis 33040 Key West MSA
  • 69. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 69 Metropolitan Area Comparison – Boosted Tree Orlando – Kissimmee- Sanford 34% 16% 15% 16% Zip Code 2018 Vote Type Voter Status Age 30% 14% 18% 15% Learning Rate: 0.1 Tampa-St. Petersburg- Clearwater Misclassification Rate: 0.22 Learning Rate: 0.1 Misclassification Rate: 0.22 Predict: 2020 Participation Inputs: 2012 to 2018 voter registration and history data 40% 8% 10% 30% Miami – Ft. Lauderdale – Pompano Beach Learning Rate: 0.1 Misclassification Rate: 0.23 Over 75% Column Contributions
  • 70. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 70 Registered Voters Age 18 to 40 Miami – Ft. Lauderdale – Pompano Beach MSA 33186 33157 33033 33311 33024 33025
  • 71. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 71 Regional Analysis – Rural MSAs Panhandle: Jackson - Liberty Panhandle: Madison - Suwannee 32428 32060
  • 72. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 72 Target recently inactive voters based on voter registration data Conduct data collection about local chapter activities Targeted campaigns for citizens below 40 years of age Start chapters in micropolitan and rural areas of the state Recommendations
  • 73. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 73 What is the project’s big reveal from your perspective? What will be the impact of the project for your organization? What are the next steps for your organization? 1 2 3
  • 74. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 74 Barnabas Center Jewish Family and Community Services Eric Forestal Bill Nolan Chief Operations Officer Chief Operations Officer League of Women Voters of Florida Leah Nash Executive Director
  • 75. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 75 If you have a question, please use either of two options Use the Raise Hand feature, host will instruct you to unmute and ask your question Use the Q&A feature to post the question anytime, the host will read and answer it OR
  • 76. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 76
  • 77. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 77 FL-DSSG is seeking sponsorships
  • 78. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 78 Getting Ready for FL-DSSG 2022 Submit Proposal Application in January 2022 Identify Data Sources and associated variables Get Commitment from everyone involved Identify a Wicked Problem and its Social Goodness
  • 79. 2021 Florida Data Science for Social Good Big Reveal August 17, 2021 79