UNC AI Bootcamp project 1. Using public dataset for future prediction. In this project, our team analyzed various datasets using Python tools to predict sea level rise in Wilmington, NC over the next decade. We also created a codeset to compare any two costal cities over the next decade. Abstract: This program provides a comparison of sea level rise between two cities. It offers detailed visualizations of historical sea level data. Additionally, it projects future trends based on various scenarios and highlights potential impacts on coastal communities, empowering users to make informed decisions regarding adaptation and mitigation strategies. This program was originally designed to help New Hanover County allocate funds to mediate the effect of sea level rise. All data is average monthly in the format yyyy-mm-01. All data is assumed to be on the 1st of the month. However, the program is written to compare any 2 locations in the world where sea level data is available. city1 = location 1. This sea level rise data is compared to northern hemisphere temperature. A correlation between sea level rise to northern hemisphere temperature rise city2 = location 2. The sea level rise from location 1 and location 2 are plotted, and a correlation is determined.The PSMSL.org data is used because, at some sites, sea level data is available for more than 80 years. The data utilized in this program is sourced from PSMSL.org, a reputable organization known for providing comprehensive and reliable sea level data. PSMSL.org is recognize at numerous coastal sites worldwide. The organization's commitment to data integrity and accuracy makes it a trusted source for scientific research and policy-making. Wilmington is among the sites monitored by PSMSL.org, with sea level data available since 1935. Remarkably, only 17 data points are missing from this extensive dataset, ensuring a robust analysis of sea level trends in the region. The reference point established in 1970, set at -7000 mm, serves as a valuable baseline for understanding mean sea level variations over time. Missing data points, denoted by -9999, have been systematically cleaned to maintain the integrity of the analysis. The full project can be accessed here: https://github.com/GuyInFreezer/project-1/tree/main Team Members: Jay Requarth, John Andrews, Dr. Dick Davis II, Nee Buntoum, Nam Yeongjin, Matt Nicholas and Jana Avery

1. Jay Requarth, John Andrews, Dr. Dick Davis II, Nee Buntoum, Nam Yeongjin, Matt Nicholas and Jana Avery
New Hanover County
Infrastructure Plan - 2024
What is the future sea level rise
for the beaches around Wilmington, NC?

2. How should New Hanover County
plan for future sea level rise?
Is global warming real?
Is sea level rise real?
How fast are temperature and sea level rising?
What will conditions be like in 10 years?
How should New Hanover county best use its resources?
How quickly do we need to start on building projects – if any?

3. Is global warming
a real thing?
Earth is surrounded by a vacuum.
THE
PERFECT
INSULATOR

4. The only way heat escapes
Earth is by radiant energy into space.
E = σ x T4
σ is Stefan’s constant 5.6703 10-8 (W/m2K4).
E is Radiant energy.
T is the Absolute temperature.
This transfer of energy is expressed with the Stefan-Boltzmann Law.

5. Global Average
Temperature
Compared with mid-20th century
1800 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
-.25°C
+.25°C
+.50°C
+.75°C
+.89°C
2022

6. Energy require to melt
ice vs heat water?
Enthalpy of fusion of water at 32C, 1 atm
(Energy required to melt ice without temperature change)
334 J/g
4.2 J/g
Heat capacity of water at 32C, 1 atm
(Energy required to heat water 1C)

7. Figure 1.
Sea
ice
extent
(million
square
miles)
1975 1980 1985 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
September
March
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
March and September Montly Average Sea Ice Extent, 1979-2023

8. Figure 2.
Sea
ice
extent
(million
square
miles)
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0
Age of Arctic Sea Ice at Minimum September Week, 1984-2023

9. Figure 3.
Date
Arctic Sea Ice Melt Season, 1979-2022
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
May 31
June 30
July 30
Aug 29
Sep 28
Oct 28
End of melt season
Start of melt season

10. Increased Temperature = Ice Melt
September 1979 September 2023
https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-arctic-sea-ice

11. Why is sea level rising?
September 2023
The ice sheets that cover Greenland and Antartica hold about
99% of Earth’s freshwater, with the potential to raise sea level
dramatically.
The average global temperature has increased by about
1°C over the last 150 years. This is largely because of
greenhouse gases being emitted into the atmosphere.
As the ocean warms in response to climate change,
seawater expands and, as a result, sea level rises.
ICE
WARMING
THERMAL EXPANSION

12. The Wilmington airport may become
inaccessible because of flooding.

13. PSMSL
Permanent Service
for Mean Sea Level

14. PSMSL.org Data
Data is in a Fortran IV datafile
Download via MatLab program in Xcode.
Copy & paste data into Excel spreadsheet.
Save Excel data as a .csv file
Upload data to Pandas python program
Parse data on “;”
Remove invisible alpha-numerics from date variable
Using the following formula (M – 0.5)/12 , the month integers were calculated.
A datetime variable was created by concatenating yyyy-mm-01.
Missing sea level height data was recorded as -9999. Those data points were identified and removed.

15. NASA Northern Hemisphere
Temperature CVS File
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/NH.Ts+dSST.csv

16. NASA Temperature Data
Collected as a .csv file
The title and first row was removed with a “skiprow=1” command
The seasonal data – columns 13 – 18 were removed.
The columns 1-12 were given integers that correlated with the month
Missing data were dropped
A temperature dictionary (tempdic) was created with an inbedded for-loop to make the date time format yyyy-mm-01.

17. Sea Level Rise - Wilmington
Data: 1935 – January 2024; 98% complete. Station ID = 396 (Station Name = Wilmington); PSMSL.org

18. Wilmington
Height
of
sea
level
above
reference,
mm

19. Northern Hemisphere Temperatures
(C) vs Time with Future Predictions

20. Predicted Temperature Rise
in Centigrade vs Time

21. Wilmington Sea Level vs NH Temp vs Date

22. Correlation Coefficient(r) between
Northern Temperature Rise and
Wilmington Sea Level Rise
r = 0.5
Moderate positive correlation between
temperature rise and sea level rise.
Data is noisy because of tidal
fluctuations.

23. Sea Level Rise - Miami
Data: 1994 — January 2024. 99%complete. Station ID: 1858 (Station Name: Virginia Key) PSMSL.org

24. Miami

25. Wilmington vs Miami
Sea Level Rise - Red

26. Correlation between Sea Level
Rise in Wilmington vs Miami

27. Miami Sea Level vs Northern
Hemisphere Temperatures (C)

28. Wilmington vs Miami
Sea Level Rise

29. Correlation of Miami
Sea Level vs Temperature