Overall monthly decreases in most programs.
The percentage of temporary residents fell to a more normal 57 percent (average for 2023 was 50 percent).
Asylum claimants increased slightly and since September 2023 are averaging about 16,000 per month. Impact of Mexican visa requirement should be seen in next months data although visitor visa data now showing visas issued to Mexicans (only 7 in February).
March web data shows no increase in study permit interests from February while applications increased slightly. Permits decreased however and expect next few months will show full impact of caps.
Citizenship program continues to naturalize an average of 35,000 persons since May 2023, between 80-90 percent in virtual ceremonies.
Slide 3 has the overall numbers and change
Canadian Immigration Tracker - Key Slides - February 2024.pdf
1. Canadian Immigration Tracker
2018 to February 2024
Working Draft - Key Slides
15,000
30,000
45,000
60,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1 2023-7 2024-1
Economic - PNP Economic - Fed Family Refugees Other
2. Programs Examined
• Permanent Residents/Immigrants (PRs): Economic (PNP and Federal), Family and Refugees
• TR to Permanent Resident transition
• Asylum Claimants
• Temporary Residents/International Mobility Program (IMP): International Agreements (e.g., NAFTA, GATS),
Canadian Interests (e.g., intra-corporate transfers, work exchange programs, post-graduate employment,
spouses)
• Temporary Residents/Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP): caregivers, agriculture workers, other
workers with Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA)
• Study Permits (international students)
• Settlement Services
• Citizenship
• Visitor Visas
2
3. February 2024 Highlights
• PRs: Admissions Decrease from 47,655 in January to 38,970 in February. February year-over-year change (change from 2022 in parentheses):
Economic - PNP -25.4% (59.1%), Economic - Federal -24.7% (-19.4%), Family -29.5% (-2.6%), Refugees 10.4% (28.1%)
• Applications: Given time delays in entering application data, am using a six month time lag. Increase from 38,328 in July to 48,685 in August. August year-over-year change (change from 2020): 67.1% (-11.4%).
• Express Entry and Arrima Invitations to Apply: Decrease from 18,151 (2,041 Arrima) in February to 9,798 in March. March year-over-year change (change from 2021): -56.7% (188.5%)
• TR to PRs transition (i.e., those already in Canada): Decrease from 37,135 in January to 22,380 in February (57 percent of all PRs). February year-over-year change (change from 2022): -30.6% (0.9%)
• Temporary Residents:
• TRs/IMP: Decrease from 71,465 in January to 66,000 in February. February year-over-year (change from 2022): Agreements: -31.4% (-39.6%), Canadian Interests: -8.7% (70.8%), Other IMP Participants 72.3% (2,169.2%),
Not stated 41.1% (647.3%)
• TRs/TFWP: Decrease from 13,170 in January to 12,600 in February. February year-over-year change (change from 2021): Caregivers -26.7% (-2.2%), Agriculture -19.4% (0.5%) and Other LMIA 5.2% (186.4%).
• Students: Decrease from 51,820 in January to 29,275 in February. February year-over-year change (change from 2023): 30.1% (16.0%)
• Applications: Increase from 65,074 in January to 68,214 in February. February year-over-year change (change from 2021): 16.8% (46.0%)
• Web Get a study permit: Stable from 57,280 in February to 55,835 in March. March year-over-year change (change from 2022): -30.6% (-26.1%)
• Asylum Claimants: Increase from 15,155 in January to 16,350 in February. February year-over-year change (change from 2021): 62.8%
(212.0%)
• Irregular arrivals (Roxham Road etc): Remain low level, decline from 191 in January to 178 in February. February year-over-year change (change from 2021): -96.1% (-91.8%).
• Settlement Services (2023): Increase from 1,941,480 in 2022 to 2,960,330 in 2023 (most recent data, services, not unique clients). 2023 year-
over-year (change from 2021): 52.5% (53.3%)
• Citizenship: Stable from 33,407 in January to 34,852 in February. February year-over-year change (change from 2022): 23.4% (15.4%)
• Applications (2023): From 264,231 in 2022 to 317,538 in 2023. 2023 Year-over-year change (change from 2021): 20.2%% (36.3%)
• Visitor Visas: Decrease from 151,696 in January to 142,667 in February. February year-over-year change (change from 2022): 9.7% (116.2%).
3
4. Change Across Major Programs
2023 full year Compared to full year 2018 Baseline
4
PR Applications
PR Admissions-PNP
PR Admissions-Fed
TR2PR
Temporary Workers IMP
Temporary Workers TFWP
Asylum Claimants
Study Permit Applications
Study Permit Holders
Citizenship Applications (2023)
New Citizens
Settlement Services (2023)
Visitor Visas
0% 75% 150% 225% 300%
38.1%
26.7%
113.7%
22.2%
92.2%
132.8%
170.5%
123.8%
226.2%
165.4%
30.8%
69.6%
3.5%
5. Change Across Web Hits
2023 full year Compared to full year 2018 Baseline
5
Get a Study Permit
Get a Work Permit
Immigrate to Canada
Find immigrant Services
Apply for Citizenship
-45% -30% -15% 0% 15% 30% 45% 60%
-36.3%
47.5%
-7.6%
55.5%
18.5%
7. Express Entry & Arrima Invitations—2018-24
7,500
15,000
22,500
30,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1 2023-7 2024-1
CEC PNP No Program Federal Skilled Trades Healthcare
STEM Trades Transport Agriculture French
General QC Arrima 7
8. PR Applications: Region of Citizenship —2018-23
35,000
70,000
105,000
140,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1 2023-7
Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania
8
Note: Given delays in entering applications in processing systems, a six month time lag is used. May 2021 surge driven by
applications from India (corrected from previous version)
10. Admissions: PRs Region of Citizenship—2018-24
25%
50%
75%
100%
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1 2023-7 2024-1
Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania
10
11. Admissions: PRs Canada Total
February Comparison: 2024/23, 2024/22, Full year 2023/18
-35%
-17.5%
0%
17.5%
35%
52.5%
70%
Economic - PNP Economic - Fed Family Refugees
69.6%
27.5%
30.8%
69.6%
28.1%
-2.6%
-19.4%
59.1%
10.4%
-29.5%
-24.7%
-25.4%
February 2024/23 February 2024/22 Full year 2023/18
11
12. Admissions: PNP Provinces
February Comparison: 2024/23, 2024/22, Full year 2023/18
-67.5%
-45%
-22.5%
0%
22.5%
45%
67.5%
90%
Atlantic ON MB SK AB BC
60.9%
48.9%
77.2%
56.4%
88%
82.9%
34.7%
4.9%
-25.4%
23%
-2.6%
1.4%
-37.6%
5%
-36%
-53.2%
-25.1%
24.3%
February 2024/23 February 2024/22 Full year 2023/18
12
13. Admissions: Permanent Residents by Citizenship
February Comparison: 2024/23, 2024/22, Full year 2023/18
Top 10 Countries — Ordered by 2018 base year
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
India Philippines China Syria Nigeria USA Pakistan France Eritrea UK
-21.3%
33.7%
128.9%
21.1%
-5.1%
101.3%
-29.9%
6.5%
-37.3%
67.8%
-47.7%
244.2%
-9%
13.9%
-29.3%
28.8%
52.9%
10.2%
-1.6%
-5.8%
-57.1%
-14.4%
-46.8%
-21.7%
-47.5%
-29.6%
4.8%
-20.1%
-13.9%
-30.8%
February 2024/23 February 2024/22 Full year 2023/18
13
15. Admissions by Province: TRs to PRs
February Comparison: 2024/23, 2024/22, Full year 2023/18
-125%
0%
125%
250%
375%
500%
Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC
154.4%
81.9%
110.8%
415.3%
197.7%
53.6%
296.6%
-17.6%
58.8%
62.5%
13.6%
-19.8%
4.3%
85.4%
-46.8%
-8.3%
-45.3%
-56.8%
-32.9%
-1.1%
27.2%
February 2024/23 February 2024/22 Full year 2023/18
15
16. Admissions: TRs to PRs
February Comparison: 2024/23, 2024/22, Full year 2023/18
-45%
0%
45%
90%
135%
180%
IMP Post-Graduate WP Students TFWP
122.8%
132.7%
176.6%
170.9%
8.9%
-10.5%
-7.7%
6.8%
-24.1%
-35.8%
-35.8%
-27.6%
February 2024/23 February 2024/22 Full year 2023/18
16
19. Asylum Claimants: Of
fi
ce Type 2018-24
4,500
9,000
13,500
18,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1 2023-7 2024-1
Airport Border Inland Other
19
Note: The “other claim of
fi
ce” surge in September-November likely re
fl
ected delays in classi
fi
cation, most of these were likely Inland
21. Asylum Claimants: Year-over-year
February Comparison: 2024/23, 2024/22, Full year 2023/18
-175%
0%
175%
350%
525%
700%
Airport Border Inland
184.9%
43.3%
491.9%
388.7%
-42.1%
650.7%
162.9%
-69.8%
262.6%
February 2024/23 February 2024/22 Full year 2023/18
21
22. Asylum Claimants: Year-over-year
February Comparison: 2024/23, 2024/22, Full year 2023/18
-250%
0%
250%
500%
750%
1,000%
India Mexico Iran Nigeria Colombia Pakistan China Turkey Haiti USA
-61.2%
356.5%
255%
3%
165.8%
140.3%
4.6%
141.9%
666.5%
152.8%
-100%
-14.5%
-22.2%
488.9%
222.2%
15.6%
984%
32.9%
220.6%
974.4%
-100%
42%
-59.9%
165%
40.3%
-42.2%
502.2%
-10.6%
29.9%
335.8%
February 2024/23 February 2024/22 Full year 2023/18
22
Note: USA no longer in top 25
25. Temporary Residents by Program Canada
February Comparison: 2024/23, 2024/22, Full year 2023/18
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
Agreements Canadian Interests Caregivers Agriculture LMIA
338.8%
35.7%
-45.4%
162.1%
-46.4%
186.4%
0.5%
-2.2%
70.8%
-39.6%
5.2%
-19.4%
-26.7%
-8.7%
-31.4%
February 2024/23 February 2024/22 Full year 2023/18
25
26. IMP by Region of Citizenship—2018-24
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1 2023-7 2024-1
Asia Europe Americas Africa Oceania
26
27. IMP by Citizenship
February Comparison: 2024/23, 2024/22, Full year 2023/18 Top 10 Countries—Ordered by
2018 base year
-125%
0%
125%
250%
375%
500%
India USA France China UK Australia Ireland Korea Brazil Japan
18%
58.1%
41.3%
-26.6%
-12.1%
24.4%
55.1%
51.1%
-27%
417.8%
94.5%
70.2%
144.4%
40.9%
54.2%
80.7%
70.4%
62.9%
18.6%
129.6%
10.3%
2.6%
36%
-1.6%
7.2%
-1.9%
-12%
5.8%
0%
7%
February 2024/23 February 2024/22 Full year 2023/18
27
28. IMP by Province
February Comparison: 2024/23, 2024/22, Full year 2023/18
Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC
164.1%
198.8%
147.9%
236.1%
282.2%
161.9%
288.4%
137%
312.9%
217.3%
233.9%
203.9%
44.4%
185.2%
25.7%
48.1%
39.2%
-9%
28.7%
-13.2%
23.9%
February 2024/23 February 2024/22 Full year 2023/18
28
29. TFWP by Region of Citizenship—2018-24
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1 2023-7 2024-1
Americas Asia Europe Africa Oceania
29
30. TFWP by Citizenship
February Comparison: 2024/23, 2024/22, Full year 2023/18 Top 10 Countries—Ordered by
2018 base year
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
Mexico Jamaica Guatemala Philippines India Korea USA UK China France
301.1%
253.1%
17.5%
-39.2%
21.5%
289.2%
153.7%
114.2%
15.5%
62.5%
129.2%
288.9%
30%
77.8%
12.1%
236.6%
100.7%
3.6%
-7.9%
30%
0%
75%
-13.3%
14.3%
-15.9%
9.2%
-27.2%
-21%
-29.3%
-1.2%
February 2024/23 February 2024/22 Full year 2023/18
30
31. TFWP by Province
February Comparison: 2024/23, 2024/22, Full year 2023/18 Top 10 Countries—Ordered by
2018 base year
-75%
0%
75%
150%
225%
300%
Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC
89.7%
189.9%
148.1%
164.7%
59.1%
239.2%
160.5%
47.3%
221.6%
200%
246.2%
41.4%
96.5%
22.2%
-8.2%
34.7%
36.4%
15.4%
-6.6%
-10.1%
-47.3%
February 2024/23 February 2024/22 Full year 2023/18
31
33. Study Permit Applications—By Region—2018-24
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1 2023-7 2024-1
Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania
33
34. Study Permit Holders—By Level—2018-24
45,000
90,000
135,000
180,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1 2023-7 2024-1
Secondary or less Post Secondary Other Studies
34
35. Study Permit Holders—By Region—2018-24
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1 2023-7 2024-1
Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania
35
36. Study Permit Holders by Citizenship
February Comparison: 2024/23, 2024/22, Full year 2023/18
Top 10 Countries — Ordered by Number of Permits, 2018 base year
-125%
0%
125%
250%
375%
500%
India China Korea France Vietnam Brazil Iran Japan USA Nigeria
478%
21.9%
19.4%
111.1%
-1.2%
-10.4%
17.8%
-38.4%
-31.4%
160.6%
238%
19.2%
-53.3%
45.2%
6.4%
21.4%
-25.4%
-0.7%
8.4%
-6.2%
66.3%
8.8%
-21.2%
38.6%
-2.5%
15.4%
-17%
0.7%
18.8%
58.1%
February 2024/23 February 2024/22 Full year 2023/18
36
37. Study Permit Holders by Province
February Comparison: 2024/23, 2024/22, Full year 2023/18
-35%
0%
35%
70%
105%
140%
Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC
54.2%
122.3%
107.9%
56.8%
106.7%
80.1%
91.2%
24.9%
63.8%
36.8%
38.6%
6.8%
12.3%
39.7%
33.9%
40.7%
-9.6%
18.4%
40.6%
13.4%
36.9%
February 2024/23 February 2024/22 Full year 2023/18
37
39. Study Permits—Web Interest
March Comparison: 2024/21, 2024/22, Full year 2023/18
Top 10 Countries by “Get your study permit” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year
-350%
0%
350%
700%
1,050%
1,400%
India USA China Nigeria Brazil PhilippinesColombia Mexico Iran Pakistan
88.8%
-81.5%
-2%
-24.5%
223%
-38.9%
219.4%
-38.7%
15.4%
-12.7%
4.7%
890.3%
4.4%
-50.6%
-56.2%
-50%
-30.5%
-6.3%
0.2%
-28.6% -31%
1,392%
12.1%
-25.7%
-61.5%
-38.9%
-51.1%
-32.7%
-20.3%
-15.2%
March 2024/23 March 2024-22 Full year 2023/18
39
48. New Citizens—By Region of Birth—2018-24
Numbers
12,500
25,000
37,500
50,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1 2023-7 2024-1
Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania
48
49. New Citizens—By Region of Birth—2018-24
Percentage
25%
50%
75%
100%
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1 2023-7 2024-1
Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania
49
50. Citizenship by Country of Birth
February Comparison: 2024/23, 2024/22, Full year 2023/18
-200%
-50%
100%
250%
400%
Philippines India Iran China Pakistan Nigeria USA Egypt Iraq France
115%
52.4%
7.5%
81.9%
224.5%
41.6%
28.6%
6.9%
302.4%
86.9%
16.6%
-41.5%
-31.1%
-16.1%
39.7%
-20.7%
42.4%
-25.8%
69.5%
16.1%
53.2%
-17.1%
-17.3%
45.8%
-2.5%
-2.6%
52%
-10.6%
59.9%
40.6%
February 2024/23 February 2024/22 Full year 2023/18
50
52. Visitor Visas—By Source Country—2018-24
75,000
150,000
225,000
300,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 2023-1 2023-7 2024-1
Asia Americas Africa Europe Oceania Other
52
53. Visitor Visas—By Source Country
February Comparison: 2024/23, 2024/23, Full year 2023/18
Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year
-150%
0%
150%
300%
450%
600%
China India Philippines Iran Brazil Vietnam Colombia Algeria Pakistan Russia
-8.9%
152.9%
163.3%
71.3%
46.1%
-37.3%
-1.5%
58%
76.7%
-52%
-100%
157.7%
363.5%
115%
142.3%
6.6%
228.7%
142.2%
75%
231.9%
-100%
-37.4%
534.9%
52.3%
-24.2%
7%
82.3%
-5.9%
15.9%
50.8%
February 2024/23 February 2024/22 Full year 2023/18
53
Note: USA no longer in top 25
54. Research Questions
54
• Which programs contracted most quickly and which source countries
were most a
ff
ected? Similarly, which programs and source countries
recovered more quickly?
• Did application success rates vary pre and post-COVID by source
country?
• Were exogenous factors such as US immigration restrictions or
tensions with China a factor?
• Did interest in immigrating to Canada increase or decrease and for
which countries?
56. Top Countries Share of Total (2018)
10 Countries 25 Countries
Permanent Residents 60.9% 77.7%
IMP 70.8% 86.4%
TFWP 85.2% 93.2%
Study Permits 70.3% 73.8%
Asylum Claimants 57.4% 77.4%
Citizenship 50.3% 71.5%
56
57. Top Countries (2018)
Permanent
Residents
IMP TFWP Students Settlement Citizenship
India 69,980 India 55,610 Mexico 28,860 India 107,105 Syria 15,530 Philippines 19,647
Philippines 35,050 USA 26,540 Jamaica 10,200 China 85,100 Eritrea 11,865 India 19,486
China 29,710 Finland 23,445 Guatemala 9,810 Korea 16,875 Congo 11,355 Iran 10,037
Syria 12,045 China 21,910 Philippines 8,750 Vietnam 12,370 Somalia 10,785 PRC 9,718
Nigeria 10,920 UK 11,205 India 7,380 Iran 7,040 Afghanistan 9,550 Pakistan 9,406
USA 10,905 Australia 8,850 Korea 1,960 Japan 6,685 India 9,035 Nigeria 4,398
Pakistan 9,490 Ireland 8,675 USA 1,850 Bangladesh 4,155 Pakistan 8,360 USA 4,229
France 6,175 Korea 8,105 UK 940 Philippines 4,075 Korea of 7,775 Egypt 4,115
Eritrea 5,695 Brazil 8,080 China 935 Taiwan 3,160 Mexico 7,640 Iraq 3,951
UK 5,660 Japan 7,250 France 915
Saudi
Arabia
2,870 Philippines 6,995 France 3,836
57
58. Data Sources
• PRs: Canada - Admissions of Permanent Residents by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category, Canada - Admissions of
Permanent Residents by Country of Citizenship, COVID Immigration Impact - PR Applications Source Countries
• TR to Permanent Resident transition: Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior Post-graduate Work Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration
Category, Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior International Mobility Program Work Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category,
Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior Study Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category, Canada – Admissions of Permanent
Residents with Prior Temporary Foreign Worker Program Work Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category
• Asylum Claimants: Canada - Asylum Claimants by Claim O
ffi
ce Type, Province/Territory* of Claim and Claim Year, Canada - Asylum Claimants by Top Twenty-Five Countries of Citizenship (2019 ranking),
Claim O
ffi
ce Type and Claim Year
• TRs: Canada - International Mobility Program (IMP) work permit holders by province/territory of intended destination, program and year in which permit(s)
became e
ff
ective, Canada - Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) work permit holders by province/territory of intended destination, program and year
in which permit(s) became e
ff
ective, Canada – International Mobility Program work permit holders by country of citizenship and year in which permit(s)
became e
ff
ective, Canada – Temporary Foreign Worker Program work permit holders by country of citizenship and year in which permit(s) became e
ff
ective
• Study Permits: Canada - Study permit holders by country of citizenship and year in which permit(s) became e
ff
ective, Canada - Study permit holders by
province/territory of intended destination, study level and year in which permit(s) became e
ff
ective, Source Countries - Applications Processed by IRCC for
New Study Permit Applications
• Settlement Services: Special request IRCC data table
• Citizenship: Source Countries (Country of Birth) - New Canadian Citizens (in Persons) by Month
• Web: Provided by IRCC
• 2018 is used as baseline
58