CBO's Economic Projections

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Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, CBO’s Assistant Director for Macroeconomic Analysis, at the Economic Outlook Forum hosted by the NYU Stern Center for Global Economy and Business.

Économie & finance Gouvernement et associations à but non lucratif

Congressional Budget Office
Presentation at the NYU Stern Economic Outlook Forum
New York City, New York
Wendy Edelberg
Assistant Director, Macroeconomic Analysis
CBO’s Economic Projections
September 8, 2015

CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 2
Growth of Real GDP

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Contributions to the Growth of Real GDP

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Real Total Compensation of Employees

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Business Investment

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Household Formation

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Growth of Trade

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Rates of Short- and Long-Term Unemployment

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Underuse of Labor

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Employment Shortfall
The employment shortfall is the number of people who would be employed if the unemployment rate equaled its rate in
December 2007 (the light blue bars) and if the labor force participation rate equaled its potential rate (the dark blue bars).

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The Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment

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Labor Force Participation Rates

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Hourly Labor Compensation

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GDP and Potential GDP

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Inflation

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Forecasts of Interest Rates by CBO, the Federal Reserve,
and Federal Funds Futures

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Interest Rates

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Nominal and Real 10-Year Treasury Notes
*Calculated using the consumer price index for all urban consumers.

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Spread Between 10-Year Treasury Notes and 3-Month Treasury Bills

CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 22
Interest Rates on 10-Year Treasury Notes

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In fiscal year 2016, for the first time since 2009, the federal budget deficit increased in relation to the nation’s economic output. The Congressional Budget Office projects that over the next decade, if current laws remained generally unchanged, the deficit would decline in 2018 and then resume its upward trajectory—the result of strong growth in spending for retirement and health care programs targeted to older people and rising interest payments on the government’s debt, accompanied by only modest growth in revenue collections. Those accumulating deficits would drive debt held by the public from its already high level up to its highest percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) since shortly after World War II. CBO’s estimate of the deficit for 2017 has increased since January 2017, when the agency issued its previous estimates, because revenues are expected to be lower and mandatory spending is expected to be higher than earlier anticipated. Additionally, the current projection for the cumulative deficit for the 2018–2027 period is about $700 billion more than reported in January. CBO’s economic forecast—which underlies its budget projections—indicates that under current law, economic growth over the next two years would remain close to the modest rate observed since the end of the recession in 2009. Nevertheless, economic growth would continue to outpace growth in potential (maximum sustainable) GDP and thus continue to reduce the amount of underused resources, or slack, in the economy. The result would be increases in hiring, employment, and wages, along with upward pressure on inflation and interest rates. In the later part of the 10-year projection period, output growth would be constrained by a relatively slow increase in the nation’s supply of labor. Presentation by Sam Papenfuss, Deputy Assistant Director for CBO’s Budget Analysis Division, at the National Association of State Auditors, Comptrollers and Treasurers annual conference.

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Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, to the National Association for Business Economics. In fiscal year 2016, for the first time since 2009, the federal budget deficit increased in relation to the nation’s economic output. The Congressional Budget Office projects that over the next decade, if current laws remained generally unchanged, budget deficits would eventually follow an upward trajectory—the result of strong growth in spending for retirement and health care programs targeted to older people and rising interest payments on the government’s debt, accompanied by only modest growth in revenue collections. Those accumulating deficits would drive debt held by the public from its already high level up to its highest percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) since shortly after World War II. CBO’s estimate of the deficit for 2017 has decreased since August 2016, when the agency issued its previous estimates, primarily because mandatory spending is expected to be lower than earlier anticipated. However, the current projection for the cumulative deficit for the 2017–2026 period is about the same as that reported in August. CBO’s economic forecast—which underlies its budget projections—indicates that under current law, economic growth over the next two years would remain close to the modest rate observed since the end of the recession in 2009. Nevertheless, economic growth would continue to outpace growth in potential (maximum sustainable) GDP and thus continue to reduce the amount of underused resources, or slack, in the economy. The result would be increases in hiring, employment, and wages, along with upward pressure on inflation and interest rates. In the later part of the 10-year projection period, output growth would be constrained by a relatively slow increase in the nation’s supply of labor.

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There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market. However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible. Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges. But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor. Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor @Pi_vendor_247

NEW NORMAL! WHAT BECOMES OF ACCOUNTING PROFESSION

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一比一原版(GWU,GW毕业证)加利福尼亚大学|尔湾分校毕业证如何办理

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CBO's Economic Projections

1. Congressional Budget Office Presentation at the NYU Stern Economic Outlook Forum New York City, New York Wendy Edelberg Assistant Director, Macroeconomic Analysis CBO’s Economic Projections September 8, 2015

2. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 1

3. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 2 Growth of Real GDP

4. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 3 Contributions to the Growth of Real GDP

5. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 4 Real Total Compensation of Employees

6. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 5 Business Investment

7. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 6 Household Formation

8. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 7 Growth of Trade

9. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 8

10. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 9 Rates of Short- and Long-Term Unemployment

11. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 10 Underuse of Labor

12. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 11 Employment Shortfall The employment shortfall is the number of people who would be employed if the unemployment rate equaled its rate in December 2007 (the light blue bars) and if the labor force participation rate equaled its potential rate (the dark blue bars).

13. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 12 The Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment

14. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 13 Labor Force Participation Rates

15. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 14 Hourly Labor Compensation

16. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 15

17. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 16 GDP and Potential GDP

18. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 17 Inflation

19. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 18 Forecasts of Interest Rates by CBO, the Federal Reserve, and Federal Funds Futures

20. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 19 Interest Rates

21. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 20 Nominal and Real 10-Year Treasury Notes *Calculated using the consumer price index for all urban consumers.

22. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 21 Spread Between 10-Year Treasury Notes and 3-Month Treasury Bills

23. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 22 Interest Rates on 10-Year Treasury Notes