How will the economic relations between the U.S. and China influence the market?

1. Prepare for the Future by Stress Testing Scenarios
F e b r u a r y 2 0 2 4
Weighing the Risks by Chief Investment Officer, Rusty Vanneman, CMT, CFA, BFA™ and Sr. Portfolio Manager Nick
Codola, CFA, CAIA
Featuring KraneShares CIO Brendan Ahern

2. China’s Economic Risks
S+P 500
5600
+10%
Shanghai
3920
+30%
10-Year Treasury
3.80
-50bps
S+P 500
5350
+5%
Shanghai
3375
+12%
10-Year Treasury
4.25
-5bps
S+P 500
4600
-10%
Shanghai
2715
-10%
10-Year Treasury
3.75
-55bps
Economic
Relations
Grow
GOOD
BASELINE
BAD
Economic
Relations
Normalize
Economic
Relations
Sour
U.S. – China relationship
grows
U.S. interest rates decrease
and China makes FX gains
U.S. – China relationship
becomes stable
China stimulates their
economy through fiscal
policy
Shipping rates decrease
Decreased consumer
activity forces Fed to cut
rates

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