Hovedtrender for fremtidig reiseetterspørsel

Reiselivskonferansen 2010
"Veksten må komme utenfra"

ColorLine, Kiel
6 May 2010

Hovedtrender for fremtidig reiseetterspørsel –
The future of Holiday Travel from Germany
Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag

This document is part of a personal © Martin Lohmann
presentation and needs additional explanations. und Ulf Sonntag, Kiel, 2010

Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag:
Tourism Trends Germany. May 2010

This is about “Trends”:
Which way to the future?


What is a trend?

Trends are:
possible developments of the future from today‘s perspective,

that are already visible today,
and where we do have a good reason that
they will continue in the future.

A trend is not a temporary fashion.


“Reiseanalyse” (RA): The Survey

► The “Reiseanalyse” (RA) is a yearly (since 1970) representative
survey,
► covering holiday travel behaviour, intentions and attitudes of
Germans,
► conducted every year with a comparable set of questions and based
on a random sample of 7,500 face-to-face interviews.
► Users: tour operators, hotel chains, regional, national and international
tourism organisations / ministries and other organisations in the
tourism industry.

www.reiseanalyse.de


www.reiseanalyse.de
The “Reiseanalyse”


A trend needs a beginning.


Holiday travel propensity:
Stable demand on a high level
%
100
90
78%
80 72% 76% 74%
75,7%
70
60 52%
50
40
30
20
10
0
4

00

2

4

6

8

9
64

74

84

94

96

98
5

0

0

0

0

0
19

20

20

20

20

20

20
Basis: population aged 14+; up to 1990 Western Germany only
Source: 1970 onwards: Reiseanalyse; previous years: other


Consumer priorities

59% Population
54% 54%
50% Holiday-makers 2008
48%
42% 42%
37%
34%

16%
ia
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Question: „Here is a list of various items on which people spend money. Which of these are particularly important to you?“
Basis: population; holiday-makers in 2008 aged 14+;
Source: FUR, RA 2009


Holiday Trips: we are used to take them…

1992
60% 61% 1998
2003
50% 51% 2008
46% 2009

36% 35%
33%
28%
26%

18%
16% 16%
13%13%

Regular Occasional Infrequent

Basis: population aged 14+; Regular = min. 1 trip p.a. in 2007-09; Occasional = 1 or 2 trips in the last 3 years; infrequent: no trip within the last 3 years
Source: FUR, RA 1993, 1999, 2004, 2009 & 2010


External influences Environment
Policy Disasters
Economy
Examples Energy prices Climate change
Economic crisis

Demographic
change
Tourism
demand
Web 2.0

Technology
Multi-optionality
Tourism
industry Consumer behaviour


External Influences –
How to they impact?

External factors may have an impact on tourism demand by
affecting the ability to travel (freedom, time, money, fitness) and
the motivation to do so.
Consumer Behavior is not a reaction to a single factor but to the
whole set of influencing external factors.
In addition it is driven by internal factors (e.g. motives, abilities
etc.).
Thus, the impact of a change in a single external factor is limited.


What is the basic situation?

Demand for Holiday Trips in Germany

On a high level
It’s a priority
It’s a habit
Influenced by a multitude of factors

Thus: Stability.


Future Trends of
Tourism Demand:
An Evolution.


How to identify a trend?

Taking into consideration:

RA data +
calculations +
comparisons (other sources) +
frame work conditions (as identified by reviewing the literature)

Checking different views within our research team and
Workshops with people from the industry


The new tourism
does not come as a revolution!

At first sight, the long-term trends are not very fancy.

But: They offer great challenges.


Trends and their consequences

1. Structural change: new weighting of target groups
2. Motives: steady basic needs,
higher expectations
3. Volume: stable, with potential for growth + risks
4. Destinations: larger regions have well-defined positions,
leeway for countries/destinations
5. Information + decision: new strategies
6. Distribution: important role of professionals
7. Type of holiday: combine more types in a single holiday
8. Duration: shorter
9. Seasonality: declining
10. Expenditure: higher price consciousness
11. Accommodation: higher quality
12. Means of transport: stability with risks

Strong Competition

Long-term development:
driving forces for demand
Economic situation
Prices
75 73
Number of holidays in million
War & terror
Climate change
Epidemics
Natural disasters
020
d2
Bad marketing
n 66
Tre

63
60 58

1993 Economic situation 2020
Prices
Motives
Attitudes
Demogr. change
Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Good marketing

Driving forces


Trends in a framework of drivers

Trends of tourism demand
Supply • Structural change: new weightings of target groups Demand
• Motives: steady basic needs,
higher expectations
Climate change
• Volume: Stable, potential for growth + risks
• Destinations: larger regions have well-defined positions,
Innovation leeway for countries/destinations Consumer
• Information + decision: new strategies power
Globalization • Distribution: important role of professionals
• Type of holiday: combine more types in a single holiday
• Duration: shorter Demographic
Extended product portfolio • Seasonality: declining change
• Expenditure: higher price consciousness
• Accommodation: higher quality
Crises, war and
• Means of transport: stability with risks
terror threats Increased price sensitivity

Pressure of competition Information overload Price orientation
Sense of entitlement
Internet/e-com
Differentiation
Standardization Sustainability
Economy Clever
customer
Technology Security

Source: Lohmann & Aderhold: Urlaubstrends 2020 (FUR)


Tourism in a changing
society –
The „agequake“


Holiday travel propensity of different age groups 1970 - 2009

2009
%
100 1989
1979
80 1970

60

40

20

0
14 - 19 20 - 29 30 - 39 40 - 49 50 - 59 60 - 69 70+

Growth 1970-1990: through persons aged 20-50;
1990-2009: through persons aged 60+


Holiday destination choice for a
German cohort 1995 and 2005

Age 55 65
1995 2005
in % 50 - 59 years 60 - 69 years
Domestic (Germany) 31 32
Abroad 69 68

Source: FUR, RA 1996 & RA 2006;
Destination of main holiday trip in %; n = ca. 1.000


Continuity

People (cohorts) when getting older tend to stick to their once
learned/acquired behavior patterns.
These patterns are a result of previous experiences & life
conditions.
As these experiences are different for each cohort, the patterns are
different, too. Thus, today‘s seniors behave differently from
yesterday‘s and tomorrow‘s will be different from today‘s.
We have tried to use this „rule“ in order to take a look into the
future.


Holidays of future senior citizens

75-year-olds in the year …

2007 2020
Total of age group 8,2 mn. 9,6 mn.

Holiday travel propensity 64% 77%
Number of travelers 5,2 mn. 7,4 mn.

Destination of main holiday trip
Domestic (Germany) 45% 31%
Abroad 55% 69%

75-year-old = 70- to 80-year-old persons
Figures for 2020 are estimated on the basis of the current data of the group aged 57 to 67 years


Volume and structure of holiday takers and
holiday trips 2007 and 2020

Holiday takers Holiday trips Holiday takers Holiday trips
2007 2007 2020* 2020*
% Mio. % Mio. % Mio. % Mio.
Adolescents
and young
adults 21 10,4 20 12,6 19 9,2 17 11,0
(14 to 29 yrs)

Middle-aged
adults 51 24,6 50 31,6 48 23,9 48 31,1
(30 to 59 yrs)

Seniors
(aged 60+) 28 13,4 30 18,7 33 16,6 35 22,3

total 100 48,5 100 62,9 100 49,7 100 64,4

* Estimation using the cohort and segment rule on the basis of the RA 2008.
Numbers stated for 2020 are examples.


Continuity…

… Continuity Theory of aging states that older adults will maintain the
same activities, behaviours etc. as they did in their pre-senior life
(cf. Atchley, 1989, 1999).
… is an important factor in explaining the consumer behavior of future
senior tourists,
but it is not the only one.

In addition we have
► New possibilities
(e.g. more „disposable“ time after retirement)
► New limitations (e.g. health, fitness)
► Frame work conditions in society
► Marketing efforts of the tourism industry


Demographic change

Dresden Neustadt; Dec. 2008 (photo: Martin Lohmann)


Demographic change

Peru, Ausangate region, Aug. 2009 (photo: Lohmann)


Customer‘s expectations:
Informed customer.


Holiday motives 2010

Relaxation
Relaxation 69%
Away from routine 67% Enjoyment
Recuperation 63% Sun, warmth 66%
Free time 57% Do nothing 56%
Partner / children
Spoil myself 31%
Time for each other 52%
Children18%
Health / nature
Contacts Experience nature 58%
Healthy climate 51%
Share experiences 40% New experiences
Health 36%
Acquaintances 36% Fun, amusement 60%
Flirt / romance 14% New Impressions 44% Sports
Travel around 38% Gentle sports 32%
Other countries 35% Sports 11%
Basis: population aged 14+
Motives „very important“


Experienced traveller:
Flexible “how”, inflexible “why”
More demanding: every motive becomes more important!
The basic motives of holidays are not going to change within the
next ten years: relaxation, no stress, be free and independent,
escape the daily routine and – at the same time – recuperate.
No change of holiday values!
Differentiation of expectations, how to implement these basic
motives in a concrete holiday trip.
More experiences, more pleasure. Holidays deliver impressions.
Just service is not enough, „unique“ experiences with personal
involvement!
More in one holiday: content, velocity, intensity


Distribution: increasing importance of the internet

68% Jan 01 Jan 03
Jan 05 Jan 07
51% Jan 09 Jan 10

29%

Internet access use for holiday information use for holiday booking

75% of persons online are using the internet for holiday information
50% are using the internet for holiday bookings

Information and booking: new information technologies affect and change
holiday travel planning. Persons regularly using the internet in daily life also
use the internet for travel planning. Consequently, traditional means of
booking are losing importance.

Martin Lohmann & Ulf Sonntag: Source: RA 2010; population

Skilled consumer with low involvement
- a challenge for marketing
Immense offer
interchangeable products
need for information
communication channels and information
information overload less time/information
The decision: not a comprehensive search-evaluate-
choice process but a good-enough solution
- how to get into the consideration set?
When basic needs are fulfilled and under low
involvement conditions,
price orientation, convenience and experience
orientation are getting more important.
- how to get the best evaluation compared to the
competitors in the consideration set?


Norway on the
German holiday market


Destination trends:
Multi-optionality x [love of one‘s native country + wanderlust]

Interest in destinations in 2007 2010 Change

Germany 44% 53% + 19%

Northern Europe 22% 24% + 8%

Long-haul 28% 30% + 8%

Non-European Mediterranean 31% 33% + 8%

Southern Europe 59% 61% + 3%

Eastern Europe 26% 25% - 4%

Basis: population aged 14+, more than one answer possible; source: FUR, RA 2007 & 2010


Holiday destinations: Structural overview
1995
33% 33% 2000
2005
2009

10%
7%
6%
4%

Germany Mediterranean Alps Scandinavia Eastern Long Haul
Europe

Basis: all holiday trips 5+ days


Stable level of holiday trips to Scandinavia

%
4 3,8 3,7
3,5 3,5
3,3 3,3
3,0
3 2,7

2

1

0
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09

Basis: all holiday trips 5+ days


Norway one of the winners within Scandinavia

1995 2009

%
% million

Denmark 55 48 1.1

Norway 22 27 0.6

Sweden 16 21 0.5

Finland 7 4 0.1

Basis: all holiday trips to Scandinavia 5+ days


Growing interest for Scandinavia,
biggest growth for Norway

15,7
Denmark + 11%
14,2

13,3
Norway + 42% 72% 9,4

11,8
Sweden + 37%
8,6

6,8
Finland + 31%
5,2
2010 Interest to visit
destination within
4,3 the next three years
Iceland/Greenland + 48% 1996
2,9

in %
Basis: population 14+ years


Interest for Norway 4x bigger than experience

Norway last 3 years Norway next 3 years
3.2% (2.1 million) 13.3% (8.6 million)
of the German population (aged 14+) of the German population (aged 14+) are
have been to Norway on holiday or "almost definitely planning“ or "generally
short holiday in the years 07-09 considering" to spend a (short-) holiday in
Norway in the years 2010-2012.

Interest for Norway 4x bigger
than experience
space for marketing


Rising interest for Norway on the German market

Interested in Norway next 3 y ears
been to Norway in the past 3 y ears
%
15 13,2
11,9
11,1

10 8,9
8,1 7,8 7,6

5

2,8 3,2
2,3 2,3 2,5
1,7 1,9
0
RA 98 RA 00 RA 02 RA 04 RA 06 RA 08 RA 10



The interest to travel to Norway is mainly „soft“

3.2% (2.1 million) 13.3% (8.6 million)

14% (1.3 million) 86% (7.3 million)
‘hard potential’ Norway ‘soft potential’ Norway
(“almost definitely planning”) (“generally considering”)


Most prospective travellers have no recent
experience with Norway

3.2% (2.1 million) 13.3% (8.6 million)

‘potential repeater’ Norway ‘NEW potential’ Norway
(“interest AND experience”) (“interest WITH NO experience”)


Fierce competitive situation of Norway

Number of potential
destinations 2010-2012

German population 6,4

Scandinavia-Interest 10-12 13,6

Norway-Interest 10-12 17,8

broad interest of Norway-Interested
in different destinations
fierce competitive situation


Prospective Norway guests have been to
many countries in the past 3 years

Germany 61
Spain 29
Austria 21
Italy 19
Denmark 15 72%
Norway 13
France 13
Turkey 12
Switzerland 11
Netherlands 10
Greece 8
Croatia 7
Sweden 6

in %
Basis: Persons interested in visiting Norway within the next three years


Prospective Norway guests are interested
in a lot of destinations beside Norway

Norway 100
Germany 69
Sweden 66
Denmark 62
Spain 72% 61
Italy 57
Austria 54
France 50
Greece 48
Finland 44
Switzerland 43
Turkey 42
USA 37

in %


Prospective Norway guests are interested
in a lot of different kinds of holiday

Holiday Apartment 67
All-Inclusive 67
Sun+Beach 67
Nature 61
Holiday Home 72% 61
Experience 57
Relax 56
City 51
Active 47
Round 45
Family 39
Winter/Snow 36
Winter/Sun 33
Cruise 32

in %


Norway on the German market
► Stable demand for Scandinavia – market share 3.5%
► Within Scandinavia, Norway is one of the winners in the past decade
► Interest for Norway in Germany is 4x bigger than the experience
‘space for marketing’
► Norway-Interest and -Experience are growing
► Norway-Interested are mainly ‘soft and new potential’
important fact to consider in marketing planning
► Fierce competitive situation for Norway
Main competitors are Germany, Scandinavia, Mediterranean
► The kinds of holiday, potential Norway-guests are interested show …
CHANCES (holiday homes, nature, experience, action, round)
THREATS (AI, sun+beach, winter/sun)

Norway in a good position on the German market,
yet in a fierce competition with holiday destinations around the world


Short cruises


Interest for short cruises 13x bigger
than experience

Short cruise last 3 yrs Short cruise next 3 yrs
1.1% (0.7 million) 13.7% (8.9 million)
have been on a short cruise in the "almost definitely planning“ or "generally
years 07-09 considering" to go on a short cruise in the
years 2010-2012.

Interest for short cruises 13x
bigger than experience (!!)
new segment with huge
market potential


„Exploding“ interest for short cruises on the
German market
Interested in Sho rt-Cruises next 3 years
been o n a Sho rt-Cruise in the past 3 years
%
15 13,7

10 8,5
7,9 8,3
7,7

5

0,8 0,9 1,1
0,4 0,6
0
RA 06 RA 07 RA 08 RA 09 RA 10



The interest to go on short cruises is mainly „soft“

1.1% (0.7 million) 13.7% (8.9 million)
years 2010-2012.

‘hard potential’ ‘soft potential’
(“almost definitely planning”) (“generally considering”)


Almost all prospective travellers have
no recent experience with short cruises

1.1% (0.7 million) 13.7% (8.9 million)
years 2010-2012.

‘potential repeater’ ‘NEW potential’
(“interest AND experience”) (“interest WITH NO experience”)


3.9 million are distinct short cruise potential
with no interest in cruises

44% (3.9 million) short
cruise and NO cruise

56% (5.0 million)
short cruise and cruise

Short cruise potential
2010-2012 total: Cruise potential
8.9 million 2010-2012 total:
9.9 million


2.5 million are interested in short cruises
AND Norway

72% (6.4 million) short 71% (8.1 million) Norway
cruise and NO Norway and NO short cruise

28% (2.5 million)
short cruise and Norway
29% (2.5 million)
Norway and short cruise

Short cruise potential Norway potential
2010-2012 total: 2010-2012 total:
8.9 million 8.6 million


Short cruises on the German market
► Growing interest for short cruises
► Big potential – quite little actual demand
exciting ‘new’ segment which has yet to find its ‘place’ on the market
► Consequently: almost only ‘soft’ and ‘new’ potential
► Almost half of the potential is not interested in ‘cruises’
A big part of the short cruise potential is a quite distinct segment
► Norway and short cruises fit quite well together:
interest for each other more as double as high as in population


Market perspective 2020


Trends as managerial tasks
Trends
Tourism industry
• Increasing capacities
• Strong competition
• Professionalisation As a result of the
• Bigger industry units market situation:
• Standardisation of • Consumer power
products • New information search and
• others travel decisions patterns
Framework dynamics
• Fragmentation of target groups
• Climate change
• High expectations with an
• Demographic change
„instant gratification“ attitude
• Technological change
• Consumers’ paradox: be different
• others Tourism demand & meet the standards
• Volume: stagnation • Price sensitivity
• Structure: new • Flexible consumers
weighting of target groups • Convenience orientation
• stable motivation • others
• new competences
• others

Source: Lohmann (2009)

Challenges, opportunities & tasks for the tourism industry management


What was it?
► Stable demand for holiday trips in Germany to be expected
► Structural dynamics in a huge but very fragmented market
► Skilled consumers
► Multi-optionality: There is always an alternative for the tourist…
► A lot of potential tourists for Norway
(create more awareness in Germany vs. make those, who are
interested, realize their plans?)
► Similar situation for Short Cruises
► Norway and short cruises fit quite well together:
interest for each other more as double as high as in population


Paper & Authors

This paper has been prepared for Reiselivskonferansen 2010
"Veksten må komme utenfra„ in Kiel, 6 May 2010

Martin Lohmann is Professor for Consumer Behaviour with the
Leuphana University in Lüneburg, Germany (www.leuphana.de),
Visiting Professor at WU Wien (www.wu.ac.at), and Managing
Director of N.I.T., the Institute of Tourism Research in Northern
Europe in Kiel, Germany (www.nit-kiel.de). He is scientific consultant
of FUR (www.fur.de).

Ulf Sonntag is Associate Director and Head of Market Research of
N.I.T., the Institute of Tourism Research in Northern Europe in Kiel,
Germany (www.nit-kiel.de). He coordinates the research and
analyses performances of FUR (www.fur.de).

Contacts:
lohmann@nit-kiel.de
ulf.sonntag@nit-kiel.de

FUR - Forschungsgemeinschaft Urlaub und Reisen e.V.
Fleethörn 23; D – 24103 Kiel,
www.reiseanalyse.de


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