The document discusses the concept of situational normality and the need for constant change. It covers topics like commoditization, innovation, creative destruction, componentization, and the lifecycle of technologies from pioneering to leverage to commodity. Diagrams and examples are provided to illustrate these concepts and their implications for IT strategies and organizations.

1. Situation Normal, Everything Must Change
Simon Wardley, Researcher
Leading Edge Forum 07/08/10 01:32 PM

2. “The challenge of the
computer utility”
Douglas Parkhill
1966

3. Ubiquity
Utility Services
Commodity
Product
Custom built
Innovation
Certainty

4. Ubiquity
io n
at
it is
o d
m m
Co
Certainty

5. Ubiquity
Demand
(user competition)
io n
at
it is
o d
m m
Co
Improvement
(supply competition)
Certainty

6. Ubiquity
Software
... as a
Platform Service
Infrastructure
... as a
Product
Certainty

7. Attitude
Concept Technology
Suitability

8. Ubiquity
Standardised
Service!
Marketplace
Certainty

9. Ubiquity
Economies of scale
(volume operations) Agility
Focus on core (Self Service)
(outsource)
Innovation
Pay per use (creative destruction,
(utility) componentisation)
Certainty

10. Creative
Destruction
Joseph A. Schumpeter
(1883 - 1950)

11. Theory of Hierarchy
Componentisation
Herbert A. Simon
(1916 - 2001)

12. Ubiquity
Software
Platform
Infrastructure
Accelerated
Innovation
Certainty

13. Standards
Matter
Henry Maudslay
(1771 - 1831)

14. Ubiquity
Disruptive
Certainty

15. Transition Outsourcing
Ubiquity
Confusion Suitability
Governance Competition
Trust Lock-in
Security Second Source
Transparency Control
Certainty

16. Ubiquity
Market
Competitive
Gap
You
Certainty

17. Ubiquity
Market
ure
ss
Pre
You
Prof. Van Valen
“Red Queen Hypothesis”
Certainty

18. Ubiquity
Transitional Risks
Security of supply,
governance, trust ...
Hybrid
Certainty

19. consumption
efficiency

20. “Jevons Paradox”
Technological progress
that increases the
efficiency with which a
resource is used, tends to
increase the rate of
consumption of that
resource.
William Stanley
Jevons,
1865

21. #
Lifecycle

22. #
Commoditisation
Demand vs Supply Competition
Innovation
Creative Destruction
Componentisation
Lifecycle

23. H. Pixii, 1832 National Grid, ‘30s
Turing ‘36 PowerEdge, ‘02
Z3 ‘41 IBM 650, ‘54 Amazon EC2 ‘06
Siebel SIS ’94
Customer DBM ’80s
Centric ‘70s
VRM ‘06 MyDex ‘08
Lifecycle

24. #
Chaotic Linear
Dynamic Repeatable
Deviation Standardised
Uncertain Known
Emergent Predictable
Serendipty Procedural
Competitive Adv. CODB
Lifecycle

25. #
Joseph A. Schumpeter Prof. Van Valen
(1883 - 1950)
Lifecycle

26. Innovation Paradox
Survival today requires ‘coherence,
coordination and stability’.
Survival tomorrow requires the
replacement of these erstwhile virtues.
Salaman & Storey

27. #
Commoditisation
Network Effects, Open
Source, Participation
Innovation
Lifecycle

28. #
Commoditisation
Pricing, Confusion,
Branding
Innovation
Lifecycle

29. http://www.flickr.com/photos/rednuht/479370088

30. http://www.flickr.com/photos/fatdeeman/2879894647

31. #
Six Sigma
Lifecycle

32. Why are we spending
$600M p.a. on customising stuff
has no strategic value?

33. One size fits all
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

34. IT
#
Admin
Business
Lifecycle

35. VS

36. #
Pioneers Colonisers Town Planner
Innovate Leverage Commoditise
Lists Siebel SIS ’94
Customer DBM ’80s Salesforce ’02 (10.6%)
Centric ‘70s
Lifecycle

37. #
Innovate Leverage Commoditise
Days / Weeks Months / Years Years
Agile Agile TOGAF
Re-use Decide Common Service
Experiment Evaluate Standardise
Collaborate Monitor / Acquire Supply Chain
High Risk ROI Price vs QoS
Fail Quick Tactic Low Risk
Min. Inv. Mod. Inv. High. Inv.
In-house Ecosystem Outsource
Lifecycle

38. #
Innovate Leverage Commoditse
20% Work Google Labs Core Services
Summer of Marketplace Defined Build
Code Procedures
Open Source
Investment
Acquisition
Google
Lifecycle

39. Innovate Leverage Commoditse
Where2
GIS ‘62 Oct’04
Map API
’05
Panoramio
‘07 ‘08
Lifecycle

40. #
Innovate Leverage Commoditse
CRM Ideas Acquisition Core Services
AppExchange Platform
(monitor)
Defined Build
Procedures
SalesForce
Lifecycle

41. Global Research & Advisory
Organization
Membership of a community of true
peers, business and technology experts
and advisers
Leading Edge Forum

42. Leading Edge Forum

43. #
Lifecycle
Leading Edge Forum

44. http://lef.csc.com
Leading Edge Forum