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Masterclass on Bitcoin,
Ethereum & CryptoAssets
Thiyagarajan M (Rajan)
Belvadi Prahlad
● Why blockchain & why now ?
● Module 1 - Blockchain, Bitcoin & Ethereum Basics
● Module 2 - Under the hood - Bitcoin, Ethereum
● Module 3 - Valuation for Crypto Assets
● Module 4 - ICO
Agenda
Why should you care about blockchain
now ?
$100 in 2009 in bitcoin will be $500 million in 2017
5-6X
7% of 1 cent (1/100 $) in 2009 to $5000 on Oct 15 2017
Fastest growth of anything known to humans
As 20 Oct 2017
Google Search Trends - Bitcoin
Bitcoin Rises
from
$30 to $230Gawker Article
About Silk Road
$10 to $30
Passes $1000
first time
All time at $5000
China bans
ICO exchanges
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2009-01-01%202017-10-15&q=bitcoin
Ethereum is the new Java
$150b $30b
All cryptocurrency
Ethereum
All
India Internet
Startups
$60b
All India B2B
Software Startups
Startups
$8b
In 10 yrs In 10 yrs In 4 yrs In 10 yrs
In 3rd Stage, hitting escape velocity
Prototype
Stage
Sin Enterprise
(Gambling, Black
Markets)
Legitimate
Enterprise
The Evolution of the Bitcoin Economy: Extracting and Analyzing the Network of Payment Relationships -
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2808762
Module 1 - Blockchain, Bitcoin &
Ethereum Basics
Understanding - Bhajan, Gita & Veda Level
‘BHAJAN’ LEVEL
‘GITA’ LEVEL
‘VEDA’ LEVEL
‘Repeatable
Metaphors’
‘First Principle
Thinking’
‘Simple Formula/
Mental Models’
F= ma
Level of understanding per user type
Tech
Legal
Business
Home User Miner Trader/Investor Entrepreneur Engineer
F= maF= ma
Gold
Trading
Valuing
Using
Tools to
Handle
Miner
Trader/Investor
Core Engineer
Home User
Production
Consumption
Bit
Entrepreneur
Position in Value Chain
Raw
Material
Alchemy/
Engineering
Tools
to
Engineer
Home User
BLOCKCHAIN
Transaction recorded
Distributed across the world
Never forgotten
Cryptographically
Secure
Linked to Internet
Process storage
Unforgettable
Global
Database
Blockchain
Bitcoin was the first blockchain
SATOSHI NAKOMOTO
WHITEPAPER 2009
2008 CRISIS
10000 BTC
PIZZA
WIKILEAKS
MTGOX
SILK ROAD
Under a condition
IF
THEN
> 35 YRS AGE
Record the transaction
Cryptographically
Secure
Linked to Internet
Process storage
& code
Unforgettable
Global
Computer
Blockchain
MASTERCOIN
WHITEPAPER 2013
18M CROWDSALE
VITALIK BUTTERIN
BETA RELEASE
2015
STABLE RELEASE
PI DAY
A programmable type blockchain is
Bitcoin & Ethereum
Unforgettable Global Computer
(Ethereum)
Unforgettable Global Database
(Bitcoin)
DApp
Whats App Server
A regular App
How
are
you
today
DApp
Smart Contracts
A smart contract is like a vending machine
“If you put in $2.50, and press this button, you
will get a Diet Coke.”
Website is to HTML, Smartcontract is to DApp
Many many more that use the blockchain concept
Module 2 - Under the hood
F= ma
Bitcoin is an alternate money system
Identification
Ledger
Consensus of TXN
+
+
Money & Banking System
Digital Identity
Distributed Ledger
Distributed Consensus of TXN
+
+
Cryptocurrency
Digital Identity
Distributed Ledger
Distributed Consensus of TXN
Solve Double Spending Problem
Use Digital Signature
Public Key Cryptography
Hash Functions
Blocks
Hash Functions
Markle Trees
Mining
Proof of Work
Nonce
Digital Identity
Double spending problem
Apple 1 Apple 2
Digital Picture Apple 1 Digital Picture Apple 2
A digital currency solution must solve double spending in addition to establishment of trust to be used widespread.
One
Each
Two Each
Public key cryptography used for establishing identity
Example - RSA
Source - https://www.slideshare.net/sangavisankar/cryptography-25681251
Hash function a process that create a fixed length output
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZ9q5eVotm0
Example SHA 256, MD5
Important things about a Hash function
output
Input 1
Input 2
HASH
Fixed length
output
Aribtrary length Input
Collision Free
HASH
+Fixed length output
Aribtrary length Input
Possible in finite time
0000
HIding Puzzle Friendliness
Digital Signature
PLAINTEXT
MD
Digital
Signature(DS)
DS PLAINTEXT
Signing
DSPLAINTEXT
1) Hash
Verifying
Hash
2) Private Key
Encryption
MD MD
Public Key
Decryption
4) Secure
Channel
3)
5) 6)
7) Are they equal ?
Distributed Ledger
Blocks & Nonce
https://anders.com/blockchain/block.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_160oMzblY8
Merkle Trees
https://youtu.be/lik9aaFIsl4?t=1m59s
Distributed Consensus
Proof of Work
Another - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jXni0KDQNsc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fxjqKXCxWzk
+? = 8
A guessing game
Proof of Work in Blockchain
Bitcoin Mining
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TD09UhjIeK8
Putting it all together, Bitcoin in 5 mins
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l9jOJk30eQs&t=65s
More In depth, Bitcoin in 22 mins
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lx9zgZCMqXE&t=956s
Exercise 1
● Create an account
blockchain.info
● Visit Blockchain.info
● Dissect transaction on
blockchain
● Understand what a transaction
composes of
● Visit bitaddress.org to generate
a bitcoin address
● Understand the relation
between public, private key and
bitcoin address
Bitcoin node in the network is client running bitcoin software
Wallet originate transaction
Full
Node
Super node receive transaction
and create blocks in roundrobin
Payment Processor
Exchange
Full node
New Blocks
Network backbone
Bitcoin Address - an entity that can own bitcoin, generated
through private key
Public Key
Public Key Hash
Bitcoin Address
SHA256
RIGMED
Base56
BItcoin Wallet
A Bitcoin wallet is as simple as a single pairing of a Bitcoin address with its corresponding Bitcoin private
key
Discussion
Blockchain
● Group of lockers in a public space
● Has a window that anyone can view
● Public key to put money
● Uses a wallet to keep track of all
locker key
Source - https://www.slideshare.net/opusconsulting/blockchain-technology-a-primer
F= ma
Bitcoin - Technical definition
Bitcoin combines the idea of using computational puzzles to regulate the creation
of new currency units with the idea of secure timestamping to record a ledger of
transactions and prevent double spending
Ethereum
From distributed database to distributed computer
EthereumBitcoin
● Two node type - Account & Contract
● Rent for using blockchain - Gas
○ Transaction originator pays
● Is it a turing complete machine
● Name of the currency is Ether
● Different hashing algorithm (Ethash)
● Network of Networks
Other significant changes from Bitcoin
Exercise 2
● Download Ethereum Client (&
MIST Browser)
● Create an account My Ether
Wallet
Ethereum
Ethereum client is a node in the blockchain
Ethereum
(Virtual Machine)
Swarm
(Local File Storage
Whisper
(Messaging)
W
A
L
L
E
T
Account Contract
BLOCKCHAIN
MIST BROWSER
Web 2.0
Web 3.0
Client Server Apps vs DApps
Web without any server
Solidity & Token - Quick Intro
Module 3 - CryptoAssets & Valuation
Crypto Assets
There are about 800 crypto assets so far and new ones coming every
month
Should bitcoin be valued like $ or gold or other other
commodity ?
If bitcoin does not serve the payment use case as anticipated, why is it trading at
$6000 ?
Should an ICO token be valued like IPO stock or
startup angel investment ?
Bitcoin like money, ICO like IPO is only a metaphor
“Never confuse brains with a bull market” - Warren Buffett
“All models are wrong, some are useful but some dangerous ” - NN
Taleb
“It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you
know for sure that just ain't so.” - Mark Twain
Popular mental models break down
F= ma
“Never forget the six-foot tall man who drowned crossing the stream that was five feet deep on
average.”- Charlie Munger
Modern Portfolio Theory (Standard Deviation, Sharpe Ratio, Correlation) have
several limitation already
Many mental models are creaky
F= ma
Source - Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital
Volatility is not risk
What is value ?
Use Value, Exchange Value, Symbol Value, Store Value
Marx Talks
about
Value arises from imagination of future
Fear and Hunger
Money is story with highest belief coefficient
that help in survival against both fear and hunger in the future
Belief/trust on Nation state as custodian of the money
story is broken
Alternates ? Gold, Distributed Consensus ?
“Bitcoin will be a store of value when everyone
believes it is. The price is the current probability.
Fundamental analysis is impossible. “
@naval
What is valuation ?
Estimating / forecasting the future
”We have two classes of forecasters: Those
who don’t know – and those who don’t know
they don’t know. ” - Kenneth Galbraith
Startup valuations are 80% story, 20% data
Startrek Journey
Public company valuations are 20% story, 80% data
Everest
Innovation Accounting tracks journey of a startup to
well functioning company
Uncertain & Non repeatable Value
Probability distribution Unknown
Certain & Repeated Value
Probability distribution Known
Idea/Startup Large Company
Takes 7-11 year journey
Pivots
P/M fit
Power law, 1 in 10,000 succeed
Valuation
Intrinsic Valuation
Relative Valuation
Early
Startup Growth
Startup
Large
Company
Value using DCF
(With adjusted rate of return)
Value as ‘Options’ Value like DCF,
(replaceCashflow with
Growth rate)
Use Comparables
Uncertainty Risk
DCF - Discounted Cash Flow
Source - Aswath Damodaran
About Price (aka Relative Valuation)
“Can’t estimate or predict the outcome of the collective based on
individual action, markets are emergent” - NN Taleb
“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”
- John Maynard Keynes
Relative Valuation is arbitrage or pyramid scheme ?
Idea/Startup
Public Company
7-11 years
P/M fit
Angel Investors Venture Investors
PE, Hedge Funds & Public
market Traders
Crypto
Token
ICO
ICOs possibly best treated like angel investments
Error in your mental model is my opportunity - Value investing
Value is different from Price, Picking mispriced, Invest out of cycle
Arriving at an intrinsic value still need lot of
assumptions
For a given supply & velocity of token, what is the GDP (measured in $) of the use
case need to be supported
F= ma
MV = PQ
F= ma
M = size of the asset base, V = velocity of the asset , P = price of the digital resource being
provisioned, Q = quantity of the digital resource being provisioned
INET Valuation, Example from Chris Burniske
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ng4vv3TUE0DoB12diyc8nRfZuAN13k3aR
R30gmuKM2Y/edit#gid=1912132017
F= ma
New Markets in early stage, must watch out for
Speculation of Crowds , Bubbles, Ponzi Scheme & Scams, Cornering , Pumping &
Dumping.
Exercise 3
Visit coinmarketcap.com
List the price of one Ethereum
based toke, bitoon based tokens
and write their $ values.
Module 4 - ICO
ICO is like an IPO for early stage startups
BLOCKCHAIN
CROWD FUNDING
IPO ADVANTAGES
ICO
Initial coin offering (ICO) is an unregulated and controversial
means of crowdfunding via use of cryptocurrency, which can
be a source of capital for startup companies
The coin (aka Token) in an ICO is a symbol of ownership
interest in an enterprise—a digital stock certificate
via Wikipedia
Ethereum
Investor Trader Bank Exchange Central
Exchange
Startup
1 - Investor sends cryptocurrency gain a
smart token
2 - Smart token records investor as token holder
3 - Company accompanies the
cryptocurrency held in token
CryptoToken
0xde0B295669a9FD93d5F28D9Ec85E40f4cb697BAe
0xd26114cd6EE289AccF82350c8d8487fedB8A0C07
Traditional
Bank
Exchange
A
B
CA
B
C
A
B
C
C
Global Platforms
Immutable and
Auditable
Low cost Liquidity
Comparison with other fundraising methods
ICO
Equity
Crowdfunding
Reward
Crowdfunding VC IPO
Startup stage Prototype Prototype Prototype
Prototype -
Midstage Latestage
Equity No Yes No Yes Yes
Requirements
White paper (optional)
- Desired Amount
- Project milestones
- Team
- Types of tokens
- Exchange rates
Education materials
- Investment
- Description
- Types of securities
- Investment limits
Education materials
- Project description
- Marketing deck
- Types of research
Pitch Deck
- Business model
- Use of funds
- Management
Prospectus
- Company
- Description
- Types of securities
- Management
- 3 year profitability
Investors Blockchain Enthusiasts Angel Investors Early Adopters Limited Partners Public
Period 3-4 months 1-3 months 1-3 months 3-12 months > 1 year
Fundraising cost Low Medium Low High High
Channel Online Online Online Offline Offline
Liquidity Low-Medium Low Low Low Medium
Investor
Downside risks Fraud, Project Fails Bankrupt Project Fails Devalue, Bankrupt Price Drop
ICO > VC & ICO ~= Angel in Q3 2017
Pros and Cons of getting involved in an ICO
Pros
● Some people are getting rich.
● Transcends global boundaries
● Speed and cost of fund raising massive
reduced down to 3-4 months
Cons
● You may not be one of the people
becoming rich
● Unregulated - Potential of fraud such as
pyramid schemes, scams
● No straight forward way to pick winners
● Overfunding, capital inefficiency likelihood
Crypto token looks like ‘securities(equity/share)’,
feels like ‘securities’, quack like an ‘securities’
object.
Is it securities and be regulated as such ?
Regulators can take several approach
● Laissez - faire - Crack only on wrong projects
● Choke Liquidity - Control or crackdown the alternate assets digital exchange
● Fire & Brimstone - Declare all ICOs (Cryptotokens) illegal
Regulators of different countries
Country Regulator Key points
US SEC
Application of the Howey Test (investment of money in a common enterprise with an
expectation of profit predominantly from the effort of others) to ICOs to determine if a particular
token should be classified as a security falling under securities law
Singapore MAS
No definitive regulation but have viewed cryptocurrencies with a light touch
MAS has launched a tokenized version of the SGC via Project Ulsin
Switzerland FINMA No regulation, cryptocurrency are treated as assets
UK FCA ICO is treated as an investment with subjective interpretation
China
People Bank of
China
Issued a ban on ICO on Sep4.
Concerns over fraud and pyramid schemes
India RBI/SEBI Have been very conservative in past, (mobile payments, Fintech) Will soon announce
Japan,Australia are favourable countries
Self Regulatory Framework
In absence of regulatory framework the bitcoin and ethereum community has taken
upon itself to explore self policing
Difficulties for a regulator
So much divergence for
existing mental model &
definition- securities
Transcends geography and
are funded by crypto which
does not have a central
backing
Pseudoanonymous - While
identity can be found but
difficult
Self Regulatory Framework
SAFT - Simple Agreement of Future Tokens
Based on SAFE (equity) an agreement for raising money for
equity in return without having to issue debt note.
SAFE is only offered to “accredited investors”
Crowdfunding - Guidance on which digital assets are deemed
securities whether firms selling it must register.
Can use a regulatory sandbox
Other mechanisms - Escrow Accounts (3rd party release based
on milestone completion.
Use KYC ; Setting up minimum investment amount
Entrepreneur
How to do an
ICO
Steps
ICO IPO
1 Initiate
Write a summary, announce to crypto
community to gather interest and
feedback
HIre an investment banker to underwrite an
IPO
2 Documentation Whitepaper and website
Filings with SEC (US), SEBI(India)
Registration statement
Prospectus
3 Marketing
PR Campaign
Crypto Forums
Slack
Telegram
Roadshow
Pre Sale IPO
Set Pricing
4 Sales Process
Buyer send cryptocurrencies to a
digital address; smart contracts issue
tokens according to exchange ratio Allocate shares according to book building
5 Listing Tokens listed on a crypto exchange Shared listed on an exchange
Fundraising in ICO is similar to IPO however raising tokens are faster and costs a
fraction
Timeline
Sample Whitepaper
Examples of ICO Whitepapers:
- Ethereum
- Tezos
- Bancor
- Basic Attention Token on Brave Browser
Solidity Sample Code
Example: pCoin
- pCoin.sol
- pCoinCrowdsale.sol
- DeployContract.sol
- Readthedocs
- Reading List
- Solidity Tutorials
Home User
How to Invest in
an ICO
Trader
What to do before investing in ICOs ?
● Browse an ICO list website like https://icobench.com/ or
http://tokenfilings.com/
● Create and operate your valuation process checklist (based on valuation
lessons learnt before)
● Run your due diligence
● Acquire your cryptocurrencies & wallets
Where to trade
● Poloniex
● Kraken
● Token Market
● Airswap
● Coinbase
How to spot a scam ICO ?
● Lack of Public team profiles
● Compromised or missing escrow
● No technical details in the whitepaper
● Unrealistic goal
● Missing code repository on Github
● Vague Promises
● Illegitimate affiliations
● Too good to be true Incentives
To know about our next session or corporate
workshops, please write to Edu@theNextSpace.co

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Blockchain, Bitcoin, Crypto assets, Initial Coin Offer workshop

  • 1. Masterclass on Bitcoin, Ethereum & CryptoAssets Thiyagarajan M (Rajan) Belvadi Prahlad
  • 2. ● Why blockchain & why now ? ● Module 1 - Blockchain, Bitcoin & Ethereum Basics ● Module 2 - Under the hood - Bitcoin, Ethereum ● Module 3 - Valuation for Crypto Assets ● Module 4 - ICO Agenda
  • 3. Why should you care about blockchain now ?
  • 4. $100 in 2009 in bitcoin will be $500 million in 2017 5-6X 7% of 1 cent (1/100 $) in 2009 to $5000 on Oct 15 2017 Fastest growth of anything known to humans As 20 Oct 2017
  • 5. Google Search Trends - Bitcoin Bitcoin Rises from $30 to $230Gawker Article About Silk Road $10 to $30 Passes $1000 first time All time at $5000 China bans ICO exchanges https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2009-01-01%202017-10-15&q=bitcoin
  • 6. Ethereum is the new Java $150b $30b All cryptocurrency Ethereum All India Internet Startups $60b All India B2B Software Startups Startups $8b In 10 yrs In 10 yrs In 4 yrs In 10 yrs
  • 7. In 3rd Stage, hitting escape velocity Prototype Stage Sin Enterprise (Gambling, Black Markets) Legitimate Enterprise The Evolution of the Bitcoin Economy: Extracting and Analyzing the Network of Payment Relationships - https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2808762
  • 8. Module 1 - Blockchain, Bitcoin & Ethereum Basics
  • 9. Understanding - Bhajan, Gita & Veda Level ‘BHAJAN’ LEVEL ‘GITA’ LEVEL ‘VEDA’ LEVEL ‘Repeatable Metaphors’ ‘First Principle Thinking’ ‘Simple Formula/ Mental Models’ F= ma
  • 10. Level of understanding per user type Tech Legal Business Home User Miner Trader/Investor Entrepreneur Engineer F= maF= ma
  • 11. Gold Trading Valuing Using Tools to Handle Miner Trader/Investor Core Engineer Home User Production Consumption Bit Entrepreneur Position in Value Chain Raw Material Alchemy/ Engineering Tools to Engineer
  • 16. Cryptographically Secure Linked to Internet Process storage Unforgettable Global Database Blockchain
  • 17. Bitcoin was the first blockchain SATOSHI NAKOMOTO WHITEPAPER 2009 2008 CRISIS 10000 BTC PIZZA WIKILEAKS MTGOX SILK ROAD
  • 20. Cryptographically Secure Linked to Internet Process storage & code Unforgettable Global Computer Blockchain
  • 21. MASTERCOIN WHITEPAPER 2013 18M CROWDSALE VITALIK BUTTERIN BETA RELEASE 2015 STABLE RELEASE PI DAY A programmable type blockchain is
  • 22. Bitcoin & Ethereum Unforgettable Global Computer (Ethereum) Unforgettable Global Database (Bitcoin)
  • 23. DApp
  • 24. Whats App Server A regular App
  • 27. A smart contract is like a vending machine “If you put in $2.50, and press this button, you will get a Diet Coke.” Website is to HTML, Smartcontract is to DApp
  • 28. Many many more that use the blockchain concept
  • 29. Module 2 - Under the hood F= ma
  • 30. Bitcoin is an alternate money system Identification Ledger Consensus of TXN + + Money & Banking System Digital Identity Distributed Ledger Distributed Consensus of TXN + + Cryptocurrency
  • 31. Digital Identity Distributed Ledger Distributed Consensus of TXN Solve Double Spending Problem Use Digital Signature Public Key Cryptography Hash Functions Blocks Hash Functions Markle Trees Mining Proof of Work Nonce
  • 33. Double spending problem Apple 1 Apple 2 Digital Picture Apple 1 Digital Picture Apple 2 A digital currency solution must solve double spending in addition to establishment of trust to be used widespread. One Each Two Each
  • 34. Public key cryptography used for establishing identity Example - RSA Source - https://www.slideshare.net/sangavisankar/cryptography-25681251
  • 35. Hash function a process that create a fixed length output https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZ9q5eVotm0 Example SHA 256, MD5
  • 36. Important things about a Hash function output Input 1 Input 2 HASH Fixed length output Aribtrary length Input Collision Free HASH +Fixed length output Aribtrary length Input Possible in finite time 0000 HIding Puzzle Friendliness
  • 37. Digital Signature PLAINTEXT MD Digital Signature(DS) DS PLAINTEXT Signing DSPLAINTEXT 1) Hash Verifying Hash 2) Private Key Encryption MD MD Public Key Decryption 4) Secure Channel 3) 5) 6) 7) Are they equal ?
  • 42. Proof of Work Another - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jXni0KDQNsc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fxjqKXCxWzk +? = 8 A guessing game
  • 43. Proof of Work in Blockchain
  • 45. Putting it all together, Bitcoin in 5 mins https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l9jOJk30eQs&t=65s
  • 46. More In depth, Bitcoin in 22 mins https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lx9zgZCMqXE&t=956s
  • 47. Exercise 1 ● Create an account blockchain.info ● Visit Blockchain.info ● Dissect transaction on blockchain ● Understand what a transaction composes of ● Visit bitaddress.org to generate a bitcoin address ● Understand the relation between public, private key and bitcoin address
  • 48. Bitcoin node in the network is client running bitcoin software Wallet originate transaction Full Node Super node receive transaction and create blocks in roundrobin Payment Processor Exchange Full node New Blocks Network backbone
  • 49. Bitcoin Address - an entity that can own bitcoin, generated through private key Public Key Public Key Hash Bitcoin Address SHA256 RIGMED Base56
  • 50. BItcoin Wallet A Bitcoin wallet is as simple as a single pairing of a Bitcoin address with its corresponding Bitcoin private key
  • 52. Blockchain ● Group of lockers in a public space ● Has a window that anyone can view ● Public key to put money ● Uses a wallet to keep track of all locker key Source - https://www.slideshare.net/opusconsulting/blockchain-technology-a-primer F= ma
  • 53. Bitcoin - Technical definition Bitcoin combines the idea of using computational puzzles to regulate the creation of new currency units with the idea of secure timestamping to record a ledger of transactions and prevent double spending
  • 55. From distributed database to distributed computer EthereumBitcoin
  • 56. ● Two node type - Account & Contract ● Rent for using blockchain - Gas ○ Transaction originator pays ● Is it a turing complete machine ● Name of the currency is Ether ● Different hashing algorithm (Ethash) ● Network of Networks Other significant changes from Bitcoin
  • 57. Exercise 2 ● Download Ethereum Client (& MIST Browser) ● Create an account My Ether Wallet Ethereum
  • 58. Ethereum client is a node in the blockchain Ethereum (Virtual Machine) Swarm (Local File Storage Whisper (Messaging) W A L L E T Account Contract BLOCKCHAIN MIST BROWSER
  • 59. Web 2.0 Web 3.0 Client Server Apps vs DApps
  • 60. Web without any server
  • 61. Solidity & Token - Quick Intro
  • 62. Module 3 - CryptoAssets & Valuation
  • 63. Crypto Assets There are about 800 crypto assets so far and new ones coming every month
  • 64. Should bitcoin be valued like $ or gold or other other commodity ? If bitcoin does not serve the payment use case as anticipated, why is it trading at $6000 ?
  • 65. Should an ICO token be valued like IPO stock or startup angel investment ?
  • 66. Bitcoin like money, ICO like IPO is only a metaphor “Never confuse brains with a bull market” - Warren Buffett “All models are wrong, some are useful but some dangerous ” - NN Taleb “It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.” - Mark Twain
  • 67. Popular mental models break down F= ma “Never forget the six-foot tall man who drowned crossing the stream that was five feet deep on average.”- Charlie Munger Modern Portfolio Theory (Standard Deviation, Sharpe Ratio, Correlation) have several limitation already
  • 68. Many mental models are creaky F= ma Source - Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital Volatility is not risk
  • 69. What is value ? Use Value, Exchange Value, Symbol Value, Store Value Marx Talks about
  • 70. Value arises from imagination of future Fear and Hunger
  • 71. Money is story with highest belief coefficient that help in survival against both fear and hunger in the future
  • 72. Belief/trust on Nation state as custodian of the money story is broken Alternates ? Gold, Distributed Consensus ?
  • 73. “Bitcoin will be a store of value when everyone believes it is. The price is the current probability. Fundamental analysis is impossible. “ @naval
  • 76. ”We have two classes of forecasters: Those who don’t know – and those who don’t know they don’t know. ” - Kenneth Galbraith
  • 77. Startup valuations are 80% story, 20% data Startrek Journey
  • 78. Public company valuations are 20% story, 80% data Everest
  • 79. Innovation Accounting tracks journey of a startup to well functioning company Uncertain & Non repeatable Value Probability distribution Unknown Certain & Repeated Value Probability distribution Known Idea/Startup Large Company Takes 7-11 year journey Pivots P/M fit Power law, 1 in 10,000 succeed
  • 80. Valuation Intrinsic Valuation Relative Valuation Early Startup Growth Startup Large Company Value using DCF (With adjusted rate of return) Value as ‘Options’ Value like DCF, (replaceCashflow with Growth rate) Use Comparables Uncertainty Risk DCF - Discounted Cash Flow Source - Aswath Damodaran
  • 81. About Price (aka Relative Valuation) “Can’t estimate or predict the outcome of the collective based on individual action, markets are emergent” - NN Taleb “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent” - John Maynard Keynes
  • 82. Relative Valuation is arbitrage or pyramid scheme ? Idea/Startup Public Company 7-11 years P/M fit Angel Investors Venture Investors PE, Hedge Funds & Public market Traders Crypto Token ICO
  • 83. ICOs possibly best treated like angel investments
  • 84. Error in your mental model is my opportunity - Value investing Value is different from Price, Picking mispriced, Invest out of cycle
  • 85. Arriving at an intrinsic value still need lot of assumptions For a given supply & velocity of token, what is the GDP (measured in $) of the use case need to be supported F= ma
  • 86. MV = PQ F= ma M = size of the asset base, V = velocity of the asset , P = price of the digital resource being provisioned, Q = quantity of the digital resource being provisioned
  • 87. INET Valuation, Example from Chris Burniske https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ng4vv3TUE0DoB12diyc8nRfZuAN13k3aR R30gmuKM2Y/edit#gid=1912132017 F= ma
  • 88. New Markets in early stage, must watch out for Speculation of Crowds , Bubbles, Ponzi Scheme & Scams, Cornering , Pumping & Dumping.
  • 89. Exercise 3 Visit coinmarketcap.com List the price of one Ethereum based toke, bitoon based tokens and write their $ values.
  • 90. Module 4 - ICO
  • 91. ICO is like an IPO for early stage startups BLOCKCHAIN CROWD FUNDING IPO ADVANTAGES ICO
  • 92. Initial coin offering (ICO) is an unregulated and controversial means of crowdfunding via use of cryptocurrency, which can be a source of capital for startup companies The coin (aka Token) in an ICO is a symbol of ownership interest in an enterprise—a digital stock certificate via Wikipedia
  • 93. Ethereum Investor Trader Bank Exchange Central Exchange Startup 1 - Investor sends cryptocurrency gain a smart token 2 - Smart token records investor as token holder 3 - Company accompanies the cryptocurrency held in token CryptoToken 0xde0B295669a9FD93d5F28D9Ec85E40f4cb697BAe 0xd26114cd6EE289AccF82350c8d8487fedB8A0C07
  • 95. Comparison with other fundraising methods ICO Equity Crowdfunding Reward Crowdfunding VC IPO Startup stage Prototype Prototype Prototype Prototype - Midstage Latestage Equity No Yes No Yes Yes Requirements White paper (optional) - Desired Amount - Project milestones - Team - Types of tokens - Exchange rates Education materials - Investment - Description - Types of securities - Investment limits Education materials - Project description - Marketing deck - Types of research Pitch Deck - Business model - Use of funds - Management Prospectus - Company - Description - Types of securities - Management - 3 year profitability Investors Blockchain Enthusiasts Angel Investors Early Adopters Limited Partners Public Period 3-4 months 1-3 months 1-3 months 3-12 months > 1 year Fundraising cost Low Medium Low High High Channel Online Online Online Offline Offline Liquidity Low-Medium Low Low Low Medium Investor Downside risks Fraud, Project Fails Bankrupt Project Fails Devalue, Bankrupt Price Drop
  • 96. ICO > VC & ICO ~= Angel in Q3 2017
  • 97. Pros and Cons of getting involved in an ICO Pros ● Some people are getting rich. ● Transcends global boundaries ● Speed and cost of fund raising massive reduced down to 3-4 months Cons ● You may not be one of the people becoming rich ● Unregulated - Potential of fraud such as pyramid schemes, scams ● No straight forward way to pick winners ● Overfunding, capital inefficiency likelihood
  • 98. Crypto token looks like ‘securities(equity/share)’, feels like ‘securities’, quack like an ‘securities’ object. Is it securities and be regulated as such ?
  • 99.
  • 100. Regulators can take several approach ● Laissez - faire - Crack only on wrong projects ● Choke Liquidity - Control or crackdown the alternate assets digital exchange ● Fire & Brimstone - Declare all ICOs (Cryptotokens) illegal
  • 101. Regulators of different countries Country Regulator Key points US SEC Application of the Howey Test (investment of money in a common enterprise with an expectation of profit predominantly from the effort of others) to ICOs to determine if a particular token should be classified as a security falling under securities law Singapore MAS No definitive regulation but have viewed cryptocurrencies with a light touch MAS has launched a tokenized version of the SGC via Project Ulsin Switzerland FINMA No regulation, cryptocurrency are treated as assets UK FCA ICO is treated as an investment with subjective interpretation China People Bank of China Issued a ban on ICO on Sep4. Concerns over fraud and pyramid schemes India RBI/SEBI Have been very conservative in past, (mobile payments, Fintech) Will soon announce Japan,Australia are favourable countries
  • 102. Self Regulatory Framework In absence of regulatory framework the bitcoin and ethereum community has taken upon itself to explore self policing Difficulties for a regulator So much divergence for existing mental model & definition- securities Transcends geography and are funded by crypto which does not have a central backing Pseudoanonymous - While identity can be found but difficult Self Regulatory Framework SAFT - Simple Agreement of Future Tokens Based on SAFE (equity) an agreement for raising money for equity in return without having to issue debt note. SAFE is only offered to “accredited investors” Crowdfunding - Guidance on which digital assets are deemed securities whether firms selling it must register. Can use a regulatory sandbox Other mechanisms - Escrow Accounts (3rd party release based on milestone completion. Use KYC ; Setting up minimum investment amount
  • 104. Steps ICO IPO 1 Initiate Write a summary, announce to crypto community to gather interest and feedback HIre an investment banker to underwrite an IPO 2 Documentation Whitepaper and website Filings with SEC (US), SEBI(India) Registration statement Prospectus 3 Marketing PR Campaign Crypto Forums Slack Telegram Roadshow Pre Sale IPO Set Pricing 4 Sales Process Buyer send cryptocurrencies to a digital address; smart contracts issue tokens according to exchange ratio Allocate shares according to book building 5 Listing Tokens listed on a crypto exchange Shared listed on an exchange Fundraising in ICO is similar to IPO however raising tokens are faster and costs a fraction
  • 106. Sample Whitepaper Examples of ICO Whitepapers: - Ethereum - Tezos - Bancor - Basic Attention Token on Brave Browser
  • 107. Solidity Sample Code Example: pCoin - pCoin.sol - pCoinCrowdsale.sol - DeployContract.sol - Readthedocs - Reading List - Solidity Tutorials
  • 108. Home User How to Invest in an ICO Trader
  • 109. What to do before investing in ICOs ? ● Browse an ICO list website like https://icobench.com/ or http://tokenfilings.com/ ● Create and operate your valuation process checklist (based on valuation lessons learnt before) ● Run your due diligence ● Acquire your cryptocurrencies & wallets
  • 110. Where to trade ● Poloniex ● Kraken ● Token Market ● Airswap ● Coinbase
  • 111. How to spot a scam ICO ? ● Lack of Public team profiles ● Compromised or missing escrow ● No technical details in the whitepaper ● Unrealistic goal ● Missing code repository on Github ● Vague Promises ● Illegitimate affiliations ● Too good to be true Incentives
  • 112. To know about our next session or corporate workshops, please write to Edu@theNextSpace.co