Welcome User Group Restrooms Doors Any specific requests? Questions?
then show Picks.R to show all the permutations we’re calculating
credit to R Workshop (Robert Kabacoff) Teams.R (needs improvement) PlotTeams.R
Very useful I’m doing poorly overall, but… highlight home underdogs highlight away favorites
Not terribly useful predicting my results going forward summary(bt_model) shows not significant summary(bw_model) is mixed week not a sig factor but model is?
show git stash
Questions? Follow up? Topics they would like covered?
What Is A Spread?
• Point Differential
• Added to favored team to determine adjusted score
• Attempts to get 50% of betters on each side of the bet*
• Different than trying to be accurate. For example: large fan-base skew
• Rule of Thumb: Home Team starts with -3
• Come back from a horrible start
in my league
• Pet project in R that motivates
• Google Spreadsheet
• Download as CSV
• Blank copy you can edit:
• Workshop exposure
• chaining, functional
• Linq in .Net
• Domain Specific Language - like (see Residuals.R)
• Nice, but challenging
• qplot vs ggplot
Have I Learned Anything?
• Yes, a lot more R
• League position improved from
basement to basement stairs
• Don’t pick home underdogs
What Comes Next?
• Calculate Correct, other columns
• Clustering by spread size
• Model training (machine learning… caret?)
• My performance vs recommendation
• Break out web pages further (league, my performance,
• Google Docs http://bit.ly/1xLvg64
Sep. 15, 2015
Nov. 27, 2014
Presentation from 11/19/2014 at Cleveland R User Group on using R to improve and track spread NFL picks throughout the season.