The Center of Water Management and Climate Change gave this presentation on the Cost Benefit Analysis of flood management for Ho Chi Minh City, using Robust Decision Making Analysis.

1. CBA
OF
FLOOD
MANAGEMENT
FOR
HO
CHI
MINH
CITY:
RDM
ANALYSIS
AND
BEYOND
Ho
Long
Phi
The
Center
of
Water
Management
and
Climate
Change
Phnom
Penh,
Nov
22,
2015

2. The
Uncertainties
Uncertainties
Urbanization
Rainfall
Sea
level
rise
Land
subsidence
Upstream
flow
Economic
growth
Hazard
drivers
Exposure
drivers
Vulnerability
drivers

3. Three
strategies

4. RDM
analysis
PoLicy Options Exogenous Uncertainties
• Tidal barrier (largest scale)
• MARD plan (medium scale)
• MARD variant (smallest scale)
• SLR
• Local Rainfall
• Upstream flood
• Modeling accuracy
• Hazard frequency distribution
• Implementation costs
• Potential damage asset
• Economic growth
• Implementation phasing
• Probabilistic damage function
Metrics Relationships
• Benefit/cost
• Flooded area
• Hydraulic model SOBEK 2D

5. RDM
analysis
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
B/C
Scenarios
Robustness
under
growth
and
frequency
uncertainty
Tidal
barrier
Mard
plan
Mard
variant
Robustness
under
climate
change

6. Implemetation
feasibility
Technical
Social
Institutional
Financial
Strategy
Financial
ability
Technical
ability
Institutional
ability
Social
adaptability
Tidal
barrier
Low
Low
Low
High
MARD
plan
Medium
Medium
Medium
High
MARD
variant
High
High
High
Medium

7. Conclusions
§ RDM
just
provides
more
information
and
still
leaves
plenty
room
for
personal
taste
of
decision
maker.
§ Implementation
feasibility
analysis
may
supply
additional
clues
for
decision
making.
§ I
guess
the
strategy
MARD
variant
may
be
the
choice,
how
about
you?
.

8. Thank you for your attention
Special
thanks
to:
-­‐ FIM
project
team
for
the
data
and
information;
-­‐ Robert
Lempert
for
enabling
frequency
sensitivity
analysis
and
comments;